honorentheos wrote: It's not a secret that about a quarter of Bernie voters won't vote for any other Democrat candidate. Your own Twitter source has a few nice polls showing that while Warren has pretty good second place strength the fact is most Democrat voters are currently not counting their candidate of choice out and acknowledging another candidate would be ok instead.. The poll is easily understandable through math and the numbers of voters who won't concede their candidate of choice has a chance against Trump while theirs is the one voters should pick. It's math. And that poll reflects the Republicans have one candidate while the Democrats are fighting it out.
Seriously.
It's possible to believe, "I like Joe Biden, but I believe that Kamala Harris is also likely to beat Trump." That's a conceptually possible thing to think that seems to be a plausible position to hold. Thinking that "only my guy can stand up to the Trump juggernaut (that has been a terrible candidate since forever)" reflects pessimism. This theory also doesn't match up well with stated support of those candidates vs. their perceived electability numbers. The stronger explanation simply that people underestimate support of the candidates they like. When I've seen polling of Republicans on questions like this, they tend to have the opposite problem.
Think about Ajax running around imagining that America supports his positions on immigration because Trump was elected even though his positions on immigration poll as wildly unpopular. He's not a lone-wolf there. He's fairly representative.
Read the rest of that Twitter link you shared. The polls show second and third tier candidates aren't hitting high yet among Democrats and many voters are saying their vote is still contingent on the Democrat candidate. Democrats in 2016 lost in the critical swing and otherwise blue rust belt states where Bernie beat Clinton. That isn't a coincidence and it matters for 2020. It's where the primaries are at, too. We aren't past the point we can say how Democrats feel about other candidates in aeanigfum way yet. People want their person. Come June that poll would be concerning. Prior to Iowa? Meh.
The world is always full of the sound of waves..but who knows the heart of the sea, a hundred feet down? Who knows it's depth? ~ Eiji Yoshikawa
honorentheos wrote:...when it comes to asking if a candidate that lacks more than more than 25% lacks current support among enough D voters in the poll to show they could beat Trump. It's not rocket science, EAllusion. Democrats aren't yet at the place where they are evaluating the second and tier candidates against Trump at the same time they are arguing their preferred candidate is the only one who can beat Trump.
This doesn't account for the fact that similar polls of Republican candidates tend to show the reverse trend in which there is greater across the board confidence in victory even with less rosy head to head polls to look at. It also doesn't account for the fact that the pessimism numbers don't match candidate support numbers.
You want to argue that it's only natural to think that just the candidate you support in a poll (even when said support is quite soft) is the only one that can beat the Republican because you need an argument to support that candidate. But that's not some default state of nature. It takes pessimism or a misunderstanding of what other voters think to think that. Just like it is possible to prefer one candidate while saying a bunch of them are fine, it's also possible to say you think your candidate will win, but others probably will win too. In fact, it's not hard at all.
It's possible to have considered opinions on this. Maybe Warren is less electable than X because she terrifies the wealthy and the wealthy control all forms of mass communication. But this poll is reflective of a trend in Democratic thinking that's been going on for a bit. That they got burned in 2016 probably didn't help. That Warren is underwater by 20 or so points in an electability poll when she's winning in a head-to-head poll is remarkable.
If you go back to 2015 when Clinton was almost as sure a thing as Trump is to get her party nomination, she was beating out the crowded Republican choices by between 2 and 14 points. It's bitter irony that her best numbers were against Trump where 50% of voters including 9% of Republican voters told at least one group of pollsters they'd rather vote for Clinton than Trump. That's motherfucking Hillary Clinton, the person people seem more ready to gouge out their own eye now rather than support in public.
It's not saying Democrats are self hating that they are where they are right now. Geez.
Last edited by Guest on Mon Oct 28, 2019 11:46 am, edited 2 times in total.
The world is always full of the sound of waves..but who knows the heart of the sea, a hundred feet down? Who knows it's depth? ~ Eiji Yoshikawa
The current Trump propoganda is made for a Bernie/Warren match up. He and his supporters have tons of online ads out on social media describing him as protecting America from the evils of socialism. Warren and Sanders are attractive to a niche among progressives that is equally repellant outside that niche.
The world is always full of the sound of waves..but who knows the heart of the sea, a hundred feet down? Who knows it's depth? ~ Eiji Yoshikawa
honorentheos wrote:If you go back to 2015 when Clinton was almost as sure a thing as Trump is to get her party nomination, she was beating out the crowded Republican choices by between 2 and 14 points. It's bitter irony that her best numbers were against Trump where 50% of voters including 9% of Republican voters told at least one group of pollsters they'd rather vote for Clinton than Trump. That's ____ Hillary Clinton, the person people seem more ready to gouge out their own eye now rather than support in public.
It's not saying Democrats are self hating that they are where they are right now. Geez.
Do you not understand the difference between self-hating and pessimistic?
honorentheos wrote:The current Trump propoganda is made for a Bernie/Warren match up. He and his supporters have tons of online ads out on social media describing him as protecting America from the evils of socialism. Warren and Sanders are attractive to a niche among progressives that is equally repellant outside that niche.
Sanders and Warren are a little different in terms of economic policy. I wouldn't describe Warren as a socialist. In terms of actual economic policy either could manage while in office, they're effectively the same. They can only pass what people like Joe Manchin will let them pass and executive authority only goes so far.
Republicans have run against almost every single Democrat as a dangerous socialist for several generations. That's probably part of why the word "socialism" now has a positive connotation among people under 40. It's not surprising they'd use that message against Sanders and Warren. Meanwhile, team Trump was trying to get a foreign nation or two to ratfuck Biden. It is not the case that Warren and Sanders are well liked among a leftwing niche of Democrats, but equally disliked outside of that niche. The numbers don't show that at all. The numbers don't even show them appealing to the same groups of people. That seems like your personal politics intruding in on what you think people think.
honorentheos wrote:If you go back to 2015 when Clinton was almost as sure a thing as Trump is to get her party nomination, she was beating out the crowded Republican choices by between 2 and 14 points. It's bitter irony that her best numbers were against Trump where 50% of voters including 9% of Republican voters told at least one group of pollsters they'd rather vote for Clinton than Trump. That's ____ Hillary Clinton, the person people seem more ready to gouge out their own eye now rather than support in public.
It's not saying Democrats are self hating that they are where they are right now. Geez.
Do you not understand the difference between self-hating and pessimistic?
Do you not understand the difference between arguing your candidate of choice is the only one who can beat Trump in 2020 and, when given the direct question who would you vote for between X and Trump? they pick X so “F” your theory?
The world is always full of the sound of waves..but who knows the heart of the sea, a hundred feet down? Who knows it's depth? ~ Eiji Yoshikawa
Perfume on my Mind wrote:Trump goes to the World Series and gets booed. There were also enough people chanting "Lock him up!" to be heard.
I wonder what the tyrannical minority thinks of that. Was that a leftist hoax too?
clearly posted by a buffoon who hasn't seen or heard any of the videos....but gee wilikers, it's nice to see someone stepping up to fill the void left by hawkeye, and KG as our resident sufferer of TDS ....and you're equally illiterate in economics, so bonus!!
Seek freedom and become captive of your desires...seek discipline and find your liberty I can tell if a person is judgmental just by looking at them what is chaos to the fly is normal to the spider - morticia addams If you're not upsetting idiots, you might be an idiot. - Ted Nugent
Perfume on my Mind wrote:Trump goes to the World Series and gets booed. There were also enough people chanting "Lock him up!" to be heard.
I wonder what the tyrannical minority thinks of that. Was that a leftist hoax too?
clearly posted by a buffoon who hasn't seen or heard any of the videos....but gee wilikers, it's nice to see someone stepping up to fill the void left by hawkeye, and KG as our resident sufferer of TDS ....and you're equally illiterate in economics, so bonus!!
Zadok: I did not have a faith crisis. I discovered that the Church was having a truth crisis. Maksutov: That's the problem with this supernatural stuff, it doesn't really solve anything. It's a placeholder for ignorance.