The coronavirus spread updated in real time

[_Res Ipsa]

Yep. There was an early poorly done study that claims asymptomatic transmission. Since then there is much better evidence of pre and asymptomatic transmission, which shows both are occurring. I do my best to stick to reliable evidence and am happy to change my mind when the evidence warrants. I’m not convinced that wearing the same cloth mask all day actually reduces transmission, but for shopping trips, etc., I doubt it does any harm. But if we get some reliable evidence about using the same cloth mask all day is developed, I’d be happy to change my mind.

Are you feeling better these days, EAllusion?

I'm recovered. I feel fine. I have some residual breathing issues that I hope (?) will go away with time. I throw numbers into Bayesian probability calculators about the odds I'm a COVID survivor and it just comes up with a person shrugging their shoulders.

Re: Mask use, I don't think the science behind what we're talking about is much in dispute. If wearing a mask is a good idea if you're sick, then given circumstances, it might be wise to encourage everyone to wear them to dragnet the sick ones. The protective benefits for the mask-wearer are dubious, especially for hand-made cloth ones, but you reducing viral spread from the already infected.

Early advice in this thread, especially in light of mask shortages, was they're not gonna do you much good unless you are sick. That was a conventional take. The WHO was on that line. In retrospect, I think we should've been more like Asian countries and just culturally adopted mass use in a whatever it takes to chip away at the transmission rate move.
[/quote]

The problem with wearing a cloth mask all day is that it gets damp from your breath and the virus can transfer to the outer surface. It’s really hard over periods of several hours not to have to adjust the mask because it gets uncomfortable. If it causes you to touch your mask frequently, you can then transfer them to surfaces. Yes, there are some lab studies indicating that the mask can catch droplets from coughing or sneezing. But that’s different than demonstrating that wearing a mask all day that becomes a virus soaked piece of cloth actually results in net reduction of transfer out in the real world. Especially in contrast to proper cough and sneeze etiquette combined with social distancing. I haven’t seen convincing evidence of the Net benefit.

[_EAllusion]

I'm confused about your post RI. If, on the one hand, you say that people who are sick should use them, but on the other that they are likely to be ineffective so why bother, then why should sick people use them? The relative effectiveness of masks isn't in question here. It's whether only people who know they sick should wear them as a blunt tool to reduce transmission or if everyone should just in case they are sick. If you're backing down on the advise for sick people to mask up, that would seem more consistent to me.

One of the things that we know reduces the effectiveness of mask use is common mistakes in using them. That seemed to loom large in the WHO reasoning. And, yeah, we should look at actual human behavior rather than idealized use. I can't tell you how many times I've walked into client homes and observed their staff wearing the same gloves with different people because they apparently never absorbed that it's more than just about protecting them. I once saw two staff gowned up for someone with cdiff who had their masks around their chin.* Great job guys. Anyway, I think that aspect could be significantly improved through public education. Imagine, for instance, if the daily Presidential propaganda sessions pumped into people's homes for weeks on end involved a ritual of explaining proper PPE use. That probably could've done wonders for cultural penetration.

That said, I'm not sure we're talking about wearing a mask "all-day" so much as "when around other people" and not a cloth mask so much as actual medical equipment.

[size=85]*And these are reportable violations that can result in citation or loss of licensure. [/size]

[_Jersey Girl]

Senate hearing is live right now.

[_Doctor CamNC4Me]

I can’t quite put my finger on why this video of Dr. Fauci responding to Sen. Rand Paul captures the American zeitgeist right now:

https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/202 ... ny-vpx.cnn

- Doc

[_Jersey Girl]

I can’t quite put my finger on why this video of Dr. Fauci responding to Sen. Rand Paul captures the American zeitgeist right now:

https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/202 ... ny-vpx.cnn

- Doc

Hello Rand? Yeah, if you're going to try to employ one of Shakespeare's idioms try not to butcher it next time. k Thanks.

If it were done, when 'tis done, then 'twere well
It were done quickly. If th' assassination
Could trammel up the consequence, and catch
With his surcease, success: that but this blow
Might be the be-all and the end-all—here,
But here, upon this bank and shoal of time,
We'd jump the life to come.

I see every day people messing up idioms of one kind or another. I have to see this coming out of the US Senate?

[_Res Ipsa]

I'm confused about your post RI. If, on the one hand, you say that people who are sick should use them, but on the other that they are likely to be ineffective so why bother, then why should sick people use them? The relative effectiveness of masks isn't in question here. It's whether only people who know they sick should wear them as a blunt tool to reduce transmission or if everyone should just in case they are sick. If you're backing down on the advise for sick people to mask up, that would seem more consistent to me.

One of the things that we know reduces the effectiveness of mask use is common mistakes in using them. That seemed to loom large in the WHO reasoning. And, yeah, we should look at actual human behavior rather than idealized use. I can't tell you how many times I've walked into client homes and observed their staff wearing the same gloves with different people because they apparently never absorbed that it's more than just about protecting them. I once saw two staff gowned up for someone with cdiff who had their masks around their chin.* Great job guys. Anyway, I think that aspect could be significantly improved through public education. Imagine, for instance, if the daily Presidential propaganda sessions pumped into people's homes for weeks on end involved a ritual of explaining proper PPE use. That probably could've done wonders for cultural penetration.

That said, I'm not sure we're talking about wearing a mask "all-day" so much as "when around other people" and not a cloth mask so much as actual medical equipment.

*And these are reportable violations that can result in citation or loss of licensure.

Context. If my recollection is correct, WHO from the beginning recommended that the sick wear surgical masks when in close contact, like when a health care provider or someone in their household is in the same room. That's different than the current cloth covering practice that's being promoted. If you're an essential worker going to the workplace, unless you don't work in proximity to others, you're wearing the same piece of cloth over your mouth all day. Healthcare workers change their masks with every patient. But these cloth masks can be worn for hours at a time, with people tugging on them to adjust them or repeatedly taking them off and putting them back on. If there is virus on the mask, they're getting it on their hands and spreading it everywhere they touch or on every surface that the masks touch. The concern about germs building up on the mask are why health care professionals use disposable masks. Yet, an ordinary person is supposed to drag around the same germ-ridden piece of cloth all day. That's what hasn't been studied, although I've read concerns expressed about it.

[_Doctor CamNC4Me]

From the Senate hearing... Dr. Fauci acknowledged reopening too soon will have devastating consequences on the American people. He was pretty clear. If "states or cities or regions" disregard the government's "checkpoints" on when it's safe to pull back from mitigation measures there is a real risk that you will trigger an outbreak that you might not be able to control, which, in fact, paradoxically, will set you back, not only leading to some suffering and death that could be avoided, but could even set you back on the road to trying to get economic recovery. We would almost turn the clock back, rather than going forward"

I don’t understand why he isn’t listening to Fox News and reading Breitbart on this issue. He’s clearly a Democrat operative.

- Doc

[_Jersey Girl]

From the Senate hearing... Dr. Fauci acknowledged reopening too soon will have devastating consequences on the American people. He was pretty clear. If "states or cities or regions" disregard the government's "checkpoints" on when it's safe to pull back from mitigation measures there is a real risk that you will trigger an outbreak that you might not be able to control, which, in fact, paradoxically, will set you back, not only leading to some suffering and death that could be avoided, but could even set you back on the road to trying to get economic recovery. We would almost turn the clock back, rather than going forward"

I don’t understand why he isn’t listening to Fox News and reading Breitbart on this issue. He’s clearly a Democrat operative.

- Doc

Fell asleep listening to the hearing so I have to go back and finish it. I did hear the above comment from Fauci. Thank god we are hearing from these people without Trump hovering over them or their having to correct a stupid Trump comment right in front of him. I don't know how many times during White House press briefings that Fauci was forced to say this thing isn't going to magically disappear.

[_Res Ipsa]

Washington starts full court press on contact tracing today. Isolation/quarantine is required for the entire household, with a person assigned to monitor/assist. 1800 trained tracers today, with more to be trained. All symptomatic folks tested. Results in 24 hours. Testing of close contacts in 48 hours. Lock and load.

[_Jersey Girl]

RI I spoke to my medical practice about the antibody test. They referred me to Lab Corp with my question. Went to the Lab Corp website. Here's one of the links where it discusses the test.

https://www.labcorp.com/antibody-testing

p.s. She said that in order to take the test you have to have had a confirmed case. That's not what they said yesterday and the Lab Corp website doesn't say that at all. I told her I was looking right at it and the only criteria stated was if you think you may have had the virus. This was the front desk I spoke to today. :rolleyes: I'll just have to send a message directly to my PCP and find out about it. You would think the front desk would be well prepared to answer questions on testing. But no.