Fact Checking Nelson's "Doors Of Death" light aircraft near death experience

[kairos]

For azflyer:

thanx for your comments. Would you give us a scenario in which the pilot/captain would go on the loudspeaker and tell the passengers what is going on:Like “hi folks this is your captain ( ok azflyer you are captain what do you think he communicated to the passengers :”.,,,,
..,,,,,…….,.,,,,,,.,,,,.,,,,,/
Given those words and his subsequent piloting actions how should passengers have reacted?

Thank again,
k

[Moksha]

And then over time, the story evolved, and grew and became more than it was and more than it needed to be. The lesson he was trying to teach could have been taught with an oil leak, or a flaming engine.

Perhaps a proverbial angel with a drawn sword prodded his imagination, urging him to apply faith-promoting techniques to this event until it evolved into something spectacular.

[azflyer]

Dr. W,

Apologies to you and Mr. Stig for any unwarranted assumptions on my part as to your reasons for posting here.

No worries on that front. I certainly know that I'm late the party here. At least I made it in before the pages numbers on this thread hit the century mark.

And Mr. Stig did in fact messages me separately and advise that I need to make it clear that I am most certainly not TBM. I can confirm that Mr. Stig and I have violated the WoW together in my backyard. LOL

Also, Mr. Stig has taken me driving in his speedy car. I must say, I was quite impressed. And I am honored that he would entrust me to take him flying some day.

[azflyer]

For azflyer:

thanx for your comments. Would you give us a scenario in which the pilot/captain would go on the loudspeaker and tell the passengers what is going on:Like “hi folks this is your captain ( ok azflyer you are captain what do you think he communicated to the passengers :”.,,,,
..,,,,,…….,.,,,,,,.,,,,.,,,,,/
Given those words and his subsequent piloting actions how should passengers have reacted?

Thank again,
k

So I do need to make it very clear that I am a private pilot. Per federal regulations, I am not permitted to carry people on a plane for any kind of compensation. In fact, if you and I go flying in my airplane (I wish I had my own airplane), I'm not even allowed to let you pay for the gas. We have to split the gas cost.

However, since you're asking me to speculate. I'm happy to do so.

Piloting tasks are prioritized in three categories. They are, in order, Aviate, Navigate, Communicate.

I'd imagine that after the challenges with the engine started, the pilot's first reaction would be to first aviate. There is some kind of problem with the right engine. He needs to remedy that. Cut mixture, throttle and fuel to the problematic engine and then compensate for adverse yaw with the rudder. Second, he needs to navigate. Even though the plane is capable of flying on one engine, it's just a bad idea to keep going anywhere but the closest airport. He would have started a turn to the nearest airport. Third, time and workload permitting, I'd imagine that he would have communicated and said something like this:

"Good afternoon folks, this is the captain speaking. You may have noticed that we're having some trouble with the right engine today. Well, I have good news for you. I just happened to bring an extra one. It's out on the left wing and it's working just fine; and the good folks at the Piper Aircraft Company designed this plane to fly just fine on one engine. That being said, your safety is our number one priority, so we're going to go ahead and get everyone on the ground as safely and quickly as possible. Just hang tight for a few minutes, and I'll have you on the ground in a jiffy."

Now, that might seem oddly specific, but I may have fantasized about doing this very thing once or twice. lol

[kairos]

Thanx- sounds about right to me !

[azflyer]

Hey everyone, I'm trying to get a handle on all the different versions of this story, so I started a google spreadsheet. Someone probably already did this...

Here are the versions I'm tracking.

Nelson's autobiography - 1979 - This description is VERY short. He doesn't go into much detail beyond, "I was on a small plane and the engine exploded, so I'm writing this book". I'm trusting that RFM read this part of the book accurately. I don't' actually have the book. I believe it's about 7 or 8 minutes into the podcast.

https://radiofreemormon.org/2021/07/mor ... -of-death/

I don't have a copy of this, but BR and RFM did read the portion of the story from his book on their podcast.

April 5, 1992 conference talk - Nelson first hand description.

https://www.churchofjesuschrist.org/stu ... h?lang=eng

Another Book. "Russel M Nelson - Father, Surgeon, Apostle" - I don't have the book, but I got the text from page 1 of this thread.

viewtopic.php?f=4&t=709

Church New story - April 2019 - This one is tricky. This is an English article describing a talk given by Nelson in Spanish. The talk is Spanish is not actually available. They do have a short video of him speaking in Spanish, and I must say, his Spanish sucks. I don't really trust this one. There are two too many translations of the story happening.

https://newsroom.churchofjesuschrist.or ... ntina-2019

This is a Deseret news story with an embedded youtube video - March 2019. The is Nelson describing the story first hand.

Sheri Dew Book - 2019 - Second hand account of the story

https://www.patheos.com/blogs/danpeters ... piral.html

Are there any other versions that I'm missing???

[Dr Moore]

Hi AZ, welcome.
If you map the flight path, they would have been at least 20 miles south of Delta at the time of the engine roughness / failure. CAB report specifically says the plane was fully capable of continuing on to destination or returning to origin, but company policy was to make a precautionary landing at the nearest airport. So the pilot will have had time to turn around and make that descent over at least 20 miles. Even at cruising speed, this would have allowed for 8-10 minutes at least, to perform the precautionary tasks (feathering) and communicate with ATC. Leaving a ton of time to communicate with passengers along the way. I find it very curious that Nelson recalls perfectly the “point of no return” pilot notice, but in no accounts does he ever pretend to recall the pilot’s subsequent messages to passengers. Suggests perhaps he was so caught up in his fear and “what if next” that he couldn’t hear the rational pilot telling them the game plan. That’s the generous interpretation. The less generous is fabrication to heighten the dramatic scene around a personal calm peace of reflection on temple covenant blessings. Because otherwise, the tale is either boring or else he has to admit to being scared witless in spite of pilot reassurances.

Also, it is worth reading the whole thread starting here and working backward to about page 75.

[azflyer]

OK - now that I'm not as salty from the forum eating my first post (that I had spent literally 30 - 45 minutes writing), I've decided to recreate it in part. This is my best guess at what the timeline would have looked like.

0:00 - Gate closes at KSCL - This is when airlines start the clock on their flights, so it's when we'll start our clock.

0:15 - Takeoff - I'm giving them 15 minutes for taxi, runup, waiting in line and getting a takeoff clearance. Obviously, this is a bit of a guess. I don't think it would be shorter than 10 minutes, and it could be quite a bit longer. They depart and climb out following Victor Airway V21, headed straight for the Fairfield VOR.

0:26 - Reach cruise altitude - The Piper Navajo climbs at about 1450 feet/minute. Field elevation at KSCL is 4,226'. I'm guessing they were cruising at 20,000 feet. Time to climb is 11 minutes... roughly. In those 11 minutes, they would have been travelling horizontally at 100 knots. They'll reach top of climb about 18 or 19 nautical miles south of the airport. They're most certainly using the Fairfield VOR (a VOR is a "very high frequency omnidirectional range - it's basically a navigation beacon on the ground) as their initial navigation point.

After reaching top of climb, the plane accelerates to cruise speed of 207 knots.

0:30 - Cross over the top of Fairfield VOR - Make right turn to heading of 188 degrees and continue following V21.

0:49 - 19 minutes after Cross over the Fairfield VOR, they reach the Delta VOR. They make a turn four degrees to the left and continues on to St. George. The pilots comes on the intercom and announces that they've reached the halfway point. This is the most logical point in time for the pilot to make this announcement. I am relying on Nelson's 2003 recounting of the story in his book "Father, Surgeon, Apostle" for this data point. But this seems too innocuous for him to have made it up. (this is also where he makes the 'point of no return' comment, which is just SOOOOO weird - and Nelson even says it's weird in his book, which makes it even more weird...)

0:52 - Some short period of time after they pass DTA, the right engine starts to act up. But this period of time is less than 3 minutes. Now, this is important. The plane is doing 207 knots. That means it is covering 3 statute miles per second. We know the plane landed at Delta. It cannot have gone too much farther South. If they had gone farther South, they probably would have diverted to Fillmore. It's 22 nautical miles direct from Delta VOR to Fillmore. It's 26 nautical miles from Delta Airport to Fillmore. If they had been more than 9 miles South of Delta VOR, they probably would have landed at Fillmore. They cover 9 miles in 3 minutes. 49+3 = 52. That's why I've chosen this time. But it could have been as low as 49 minutes.

At this point, within a few seconds, the pilot analyses the situation and cuts fuel and throttle to the right engine. He feathers the right prop. He makes a 180 degree turn and heads to Delta airport. At the point this happens, they are at most 13 miles South of Delta airport.

0:60 - Very close to one hour after the gate attendants closed the doors in KSCL, the plane touches down at Delta Airport safely, making a precautionary landing. After making the turn to land, the biggest challenge was not covering the ground horizontally, but descending. The plane was in cruise flight at 20,000 feet. Field elevation at KDTA is 4,800 feet. The pilot had to descend roughly three miles vertically in less than 13 miles of ground distance. That is a VERY steep decent rate. The pilot most certainly would have been required to execute some turns to bleed altitude to make the landing.

For reference, when I'm flying a Cessna 172 and going in to land at Chandler airport, when I'm 13 miles out, I don't want to be any higher than about 5,500 feet. The field elevation at KCHD is ~1200'. That means I've got to descend about one mile vertically in 13 miles horizontally. Small planes have an easier time descending than bigger high performance planes. Shedding that much altitude in that short of a horizontal distance would not be possible without making turns.

[azflyer]

Dr. Moore, thank you for your response.

If you map the flight path, they would have been at least 20 miles south of Delta at the time of the engine roughness / failure.

I don't agree with this. Please see my detailed flight plan right up in the post above this. Here is the link to the flight plan I believe they would have followed in skyvector.

https://skyvector.com/?ll=39.0049561439 ... DTA%20KSGU

Delta VOR is not halfway in miles, but it is the last main marker, and it is, in my opinion, the most likely place to make the 1/2 way announcement. Also, if they were 20 miles south of Delta VOR, they probably would have landed at Fillmore. That would have been the closer airport.

CAB report specifically says the plane was fully capable of continuing on to destination or returning to origin, but company policy was to make a precautionary landing at the nearest airport.

Not true. Nowhere in the report does it say the plane was capable, or should have, continued flying. It says, "Engine was feathered and precautionary landing made at Delta, Utah, per instructions in company manual."

When you're flying a twin, and one engine goes out, you land at the closest airport. You don't continue to your destination. This is how people get killed. (side note - twins are safer than singles. But when twins have to make forced landings, they are much more likely to result in death. A twin flying on one engine is MUCH less safe than a single engine plane.)

I completely agree that the point of no return thing is weird. It doesn't make any sense. Not sure what to make of that.

I'm slowly making my way through the thread. There is a lot to read. LOL

[azflyer]

And I just scrolled through about 20 pages from somewhere between 70 & 90. You guys lost me at eating bags of dicks. lol

There's some serious aviation discussion in there.