Since The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints lowered the minimum age for missionary service in October 2012, the Utah-based faith has seen its missionary ranks surge from 58,500 to more than 85,000 — a jump of 45 percent that has taxed the limits of the MTC.
Clearly, the LDS Church expects the higher number of missionaries to be sustained over the long haul, rather than being a one-time rise after shifting the starting age for young men to 18 from 19, and for young women from 21 to 19.
Is the Church right to anticipate the number of missionaries remaining above 80,000 once the 'bubble' of multiple age intake missionaries finish their term?
That said, with the Book of Mormon, we are not dealing with a civilization with no written record. What we are dealing with is a written record with no civilization. (Runtu, Feb 2015)
Unless they extend missions to four years, there is no reason to expect 85,000 to be sustained. I predict a dramatic drop next year to around 70,000 and then the year after that it will be back down around 60,000 or fewer.
Water Dog wrote:The point of lowering the age is that it permanently expands the pool of available people. There may be a dip but I doubt it will settle to previous levels. It could even increase more if more sisters sign up. Sister missionaries have become kind of a thing.
I think you will see only a few more men go due to a lowering of the age to 18. This might be to get some more out in the mission before they have a year to change their minds. It doubt it will mean more baptisms as they will be less prepared and mature. The lowering of the age for women should see a large increase since they can now go shortly after high school and before they end up married. This change also sens the message that women are maybe now more expected to go. I think the church may not publicly say so, but may encourage the idea unofficially for now.
Women, from my experience, are generally more successful at getting people baptized, although I am not sure if it relates to more long term conversions. I was surprised with so many more women going that we didn't see a big increase in baptisms, but maybe they did not anticipate this well in getting them in areas they could be more effective. They should get more missionaries in the developing world to see more baptisms. And soon. As these areas develop, the opportunity for the church disappears.
Themis wrote:Women, from my experience, are generally more successful at getting people baptized,
How so?
V/R Doc
In the face of madness, rationality has no power - Xiao Wang, US historiographer, 2287 AD.
Every record...falsified, every book rewritten...every statue...has been renamed or torn down, every date...altered...the process is continuing...minute by minute. History has stopped. Nothing exists except an endless present in which the Ideology is always right.
Themis wrote:Women, from my experience, are generally more successful at getting people baptized,
How so?
V/R Doc
Those feminine ways are a mystery to us men, but we love them.
I also notice girls could get their boyfriends baptized much easier then guys getting their girlfriends baptized. They almost never stayed active after the breakup.
Funny that in 1997, women were effectively being discouraged from serving missions:
"There seems to be growing in the Church an idea that all young women as well as all young men should go on missions. We need some young women. They perform a remarkable work. They can get in homes where the elders cannot.
". . . I wish to say that the First Presidency and the Council of the Twelve are united in saying to our young sisters that they are not under obligation to go on missions. I hope I can say what I have to say in a way that will not be offensive to anyone. Young women should not feel that they have a duty comparable to that of young men. Some of them will very much wish to go. If so, they should counsel with their bishop as well as their parents. If the idea persists, the bishop will know what to do.
"I say what has been said before, that missionary work is essentially a priesthood responsibility. As such, our young men must carry the major burden. This is their responsibility and their obligation.
"We do not ask the young women to consider a mission as an essential part of their life’s program. Over a period of many years, we have held the age level higher for them in an effort to keep the number going relatively small. Again to the sisters I say that you will be as highly respected, you will be considered as being as much in the line of duty, your efforts will be as acceptable to the Lord and to the Church whether you go on a mission or do not go on a mission.
"We constantly receive letters from young women asking why the age for sister missionaries is not the same as it is for elders. We simply give them the reasons. We know that they are disappointed. We know that many have set their hearts on missions."
- President Hinckley in October 1997 General Conference
"I have more to boast of than ever any man had. I am the only man that has ever been able to keep a whole church together since the days of Adam. ... Neither Paul, John, Peter, nor Jesus ever did it. I boast that no man ever did such a work as I." - Joseph Smith, 1844
Themis wrote:Those feminine ways are a mystery to us men, but we love them.
I also notice girls could get their boyfriends baptized much easier then guys getting their girlfriends baptized. They almost never stayed active after the breakup.
What?
I baptized 42 people on my mission.
What is your experience? Please share.
- Doc
In the face of madness, rationality has no power - Xiao Wang, US historiographer, 2287 AD.
Every record...falsified, every book rewritten...every statue...has been renamed or torn down, every date...altered...the process is continuing...minute by minute. History has stopped. Nothing exists except an endless present in which the Ideology is always right.
I never said guys cannot have a lot of success in baptizing. Also different areas have different levels of success. MY experience suggests on average females bring in more people to baptize then males.
Water Dog wrote:The point of lowering the age is that it permanently expands the pool of available people.
How does it do that?
That said, with the Book of Mormon, we are not dealing with a civilization with no written record. What we are dealing with is a written record with no civilization. (Runtu, Feb 2015)
Water Dog wrote:The point of lowering the age is that it permanently expands the pool of available people.
How does it do that?
Water Dog wrote:Aren't you guys always talk about how the church is hemorrhaging active members? 18 to 19 is a long year. That's a whole year, out of high school and perhaps away from home, to rethink this whole mission thing and/or get into trouble.
Same with the ladies... 19 to 21 is a long time for various things to happen. I don't understand why they picked 19 either. Do they think the women need another year to mature or something? Or is this their way of still giving them an "out" compared to the guys, they aren't expected to serve. I think this will put huge amounts of fuel on the Ordain Women movement though. And while I'm not personally a fan of the movement, it does make me rethink things. The sisters are often way more mature than the elders. If you end up with a situation where 40-50% of the missionaries are sisters it presents a bit of a problem with regards to baptisms. Sure you can have the ward mission leader or bishop or someone perform the baptism, no big deal, but I think it will create some jealousy so to speak. It's pretty natural for the sisters to ask why the goofball elder can do a baptism but they can't.
You haven't answered the question about your claim that it will permanently expand the pool of available people.
That said, with the Book of Mormon, we are not dealing with a civilization with no written record. What we are dealing with is a written record with no civilization. (Runtu, Feb 2015)