Democrats' complacency

[_subgenius]

http://www.vox.com/2015/10/19/9565119/d ... ep-trouble

from 2014:


The worst part of the problem for the Democratic Party is in races that are, collectively, the most important: state government.

Elections for state legislature rarely make the national news, but they are the fundamental building blocks of American politics. Since they run the redistricting process for the US House of Representatives and for themselves, they are where the greatest level of electoral entrenchment is possible.

And in the wake of the 2014 midterms, Republicans have overwhelming dominance of America's state legislatures.

The presidency is extremely important, of course. But there are also thousands of critically important offices all the way down the ballot. And the vast majority — 70 percent of state legislatures, more than 60 percent of governors, 55 percent of attorneys general and secretaries of state — are in Republicans hands. And, of course, Republicans control both chambers of Congress. Indeed, even the House infighting reflects, in some ways, the health of the GOP coalition. Republicans are confident they won't lose power in the House and are hungry for a vigorous argument about how best to use the power they have.

Not only have Republicans won most elections, but they have a perfectly reasonable plan for trying to recapture the White House. But Democrats have nothing at all in the works to redress their crippling weakness down the ballot. Democrats aren't even talking about how to improve on their weak points, because by and large they don't even admit that they exist.

Instead, the party is focused on a competition between Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton over whether they should go a little bit to Obama's left or a lot to his left, options that are unlikely to help Democrats down-ballot in the face of an unfriendly House map and a more conservative midterm electorate. The GOP might be in chaos, but Democrats are in a torpor.

So, the author seems to promote the fact that Democrats are mostly in a state of denial, is this true of the Democrats who so often visit this board singing the praises of their savior-in-chief Barack Obama? Is Bernie/Hillary just a welcome distraction from the ugly smell emanating from their own kitchen?

[_EAllusion]

There are three major factors that explain this. The first is that Republicans enjoy a very substantial gerrymandering advantage that allows them to win more seats with less votes than Democrats through district rigging. The only way the Democrats get out of that gerrymandering advantage is if they win a landslide in a census year. 2020 is their best shot in a generation because it falls on a presidential election year.

The second is that current Republican/Democrat partisan splits are heavily controlled by rural/urban differences. Because urban areas are more concentrated by their very nature, and our electoral system is designed to balance population density and territorial expanse, rural Republicans get disproportionately represented. From what I understand, this is actually the most significant factor and the one that is killing Democrats. This is why Democrats can win the majority of representative votes at every level and somehow lose legislatures left and right.

Finally, Republican voters currently skew old and white. Those cohorts tend to be more reliable voters in non-presidential years and so Republicans rack up significant advantages every other election cycle and are able to use incumbency advantages in presidential years.

There are other factors at work. For example, territories that have prisons are usually allowed to count those prisoners as part of their population even though the prisoners aren't allowed to vote and come from all over the place. Since prisons are overwhelmingly in rural areas, those areas get a population boost that allows their eligible voter population's votes to be worth more. Remember, the US has millions of people in prison. But from what I've read, the big 3 of reasons are what I listed above.

[_ajax18]

It seemed like old white voters three decades ago voted Democrat because of social security. That sentiment is dying out very rapidly.

[_Kevin Graham]

Now they vote Republican because they hate minorities.

They sit around watching old shows like "Leave it to Beaver" and "Andy Griffith" pretending the good ole days were when whites ran everything... and then bitch and moan about how the brown folks have taken over their country. Leave it to Beaver took place in Garden Grove, California. It is now 78% Asian/Hispanic.

Talk about hurting a racist where it really hurts.