A BYU professor’s learned insights on retention data: “Analysis: For accurate conclusions about Latter-day Saint retention, look at the best data; Singling out only one poll or survey can lead to mistaken ideas about what’s really happening.”I Have Questions wrote: ↑Thu Apr 30, 2026 3:15 amI know, that’s hard to believe. I had to read it twice to make sure I understood it. A mission president whose son left the church, organised and conducted a survey of 15,000 people. Here is the finding from the article about it that prompted the thread title:
That is a staggering amount.About 60% of survey takers were current LDS church members, and 40% were people who had left. The survey’s current members skewed active, meaning they were more likely than average members to attend church regularly and consider themselves devout.
The data showed that it’s the most devout members who have the hardest time understanding and relating to family members and friends who have left.
“People who self-identified as more devout picked the wrong answer twice as often,” Strong said.
For example, 75% of devout respondents greatly underestimated how many people are actually leaving, with most choosing the “zero to 25%” option when the correct answer is more likely in the “50% to 75%” range.
If only there were one organization out there that tracked data on the following:
1. Members who have ever been sealed to a spouse compared to members currently married or, if single, those whose most recent marriage ended because the spouse died.
2. Endowed members with a current temple recommend.
3. a. Males ages 18-25 serving or who have served a full-time mission.
b. Females ages 18-29 serving or who have served a full-time mission.
4. Adult males holding the Melchizedek Priesthood.
5. Prospective elders advanced to the Melchizedek Priesthood and members advanced during the reporting period.
6. Young men with priesthood office appropriate for their age.
7. Average sacrament meeting attendance.
8. Converts baptized and confirmed in the last 12 months.
9. Melchizedek Priesthood holders attending priesthood, Sunday School, or Primary meetings.
10. Prospective elders attending priesthood, Sunday School, or Primary meetings.
11. Women attending Relief Society, Sunday School, Young Women, or Primary meetings.
12. Young single adults attending priesthood, Relief Society, Sunday School, Young Women, or Primary meetings.
13. Young men attending priesthood and Sunday School meetings.
14. Young women attending Young Women and Sunday School meetings.
15. Youth with a current proxy baptisms and confirmations temple recommend.
16. Children ages 0 through 2 years (as of 1 January).
17. Children ages 3 and older attending Primary.
18. Converts attending at least one sacrament meeting last month.
19. Converts age 12 and older assigned a Church responsibility or calling.
20. Convert males age 12 and older ordained to appropriate priesthood office.
21. Members who are full tithe-payers.
22. Members who were excommunicated or whose names were removed from church records.
23. Births of members (children of record).
24. Deaths of members.
25. Members who cannot be located.
If one organization tracked all of the data above, we could probably get a better picture of retention in The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. But that’s probably very wishful thinking. What organization has the structure, records, and resources (money and staff) to do it?
