Others have run those numbers, and there are serious problems with them.
Really? Who? What are they? Shades discrepencies? Two years and the errors were about 8000. Whoppe poopee.
30-40% retention of new "converts" is a fantastic pipe dream in the part of the developing world I'm familiar with.
Is is? How much experience do you have with it? Have you seen the stats? Do you do any work in the church in your ward, stake, region or area on this? I do and I know that the numbers are.
In fact, I'd wager that if they get 10% retention they'd be ecstatic.
In the developing world they runs about 20-30% or so and in the developed about 60%.
And most of that 10% are baptisms that are related by blood or marriage to Mormons; people missionaries find tracting or doing questions on the street that have no other connection to Mormonism probably have a 1% retention rate.
Are they? How do you know?
The result of all that: wards with thousands on the books and less than 100 in attendance. Wards, like my in-laws' in Chile where every adult has three callings. Where my sister-in-law, as part of the terms for getting her PEF loan, had to teach seminary and was expected to visit all the inactive kids in her ward weekly. [you]All 100 of them[/you]. Same thing holds true in Argentina, where other relatives of mine regularly tell me about the latest nuts the missionaries baptize and who manage to disappear before their clothes dry. Adding insult to injury, my people on both sides of the Andes have to listen to "Area Authorities" berate them for their low home teaching rates and how few of their young men make it to the Melchizedek Priesthood.
Yes I agree in many countries there are problems with this.
The result? Many of the long-term members in these countries are leaving, tired of trying to make dwarf wards and stakes work.
With net growth like that, Mercury's prediction will come true.
Time will tell I guess but I would bet against him.[/quote]