Gunnar wrote: ↑Sun Mar 14, 2021 6:58 pm
That makes a lot of sense to me. Would you agree that the following is also a significant part of the answer to that question?
Before I answer that, let me say that when I was in Mali, I had the privilege of meeting some of the top epidemiologists in that country and that they are clearly top-notch scientists and fine human beings. I have every reason to presume their counterparts in Rwanda are the same.
Here is what I saw first-hand in Mali.
First, the country had extremely strict travel requirements. If you do not have a negative COVID-19 PCP test from blood that was drawn within 72 hours of showing up at their border, they will not allow you to enter the country. Further, they also require a negative COVID-19 PCP test drawn within 72 hours in order to leave the country. (PCP tests are the more accurate tests that are more expensive and take at least 24 hours to process).
I've traveled pretty extensively in Latin America and have a pretty good first-hand understanding on the economic situation is in Argentina, Mexico, Chile, Brazil, and even Bolivia. Compared to the other countries on that list, Bolivia is very poor. But compared to Bolivia, Mali is very poor. The poor, rural areas of Mali are poorer than the poor, rural areas of Bolivia. And the nice, big cities of Bolivia (i.e. Santa Cruz and La Paz) are much nicer and wealthier than Bamako. Bamako is extremely dense and crowded. It makes Mexico City seem like a place with plenty of elbow room and pristinely clean air and spotlessly clean streets.
The reason I bring that up is to point out that for something approaching 99% of the population in Mali, asking them to socially distance, work at home, wear a mask, take COVID tests, contact tracing, etc., is totally unrealistic. For the rural population, soap is a luxury they rarely have access to and almost never get in the habit of using to wash their hands. When I was getting my COVID test to leave the country I was surrounded with an elite segment of the population that presumably were all traveling internationally. And we were in a crowded waiting area for hours waiting to get the test and very, very few of us were wearing masks.
One of the epidemiologists there that was hosting us gave each of us a few boxes of N-95 masks which we were instructed to wear any time we were near people who weren't members of our group. We assumed that the members of the group were safe because we had just past the PCP test, and we were told to assume that every local we met was carrying the virus without symptoms. Even with those precautions, two members of my group of 9 people contracted COVID in Mali and got very sick.
That is what I saw.
My interpretation is that two of us getting sick there despite having sore ears from wearing N-95 masks all day was consistent with what the epidemiologist said--COVID is in fact rampant there. As Themis correctly stated, the population there is very, very young. The locals have built up an immunity to the rampant diseases there, and the hypothesis that their strong immunity from their living conditions makes them resistant to COVID is consistent with what I saw.
I believe their governments are doing everything they can do to keep their populations healthy, but when they don't have the resources to ensure that everybody has access to water (note I didn't say "clean water", I just said "water"), it's unrealistic to expect them to be able to do much to fight a pandemic, regardless of how well grounded they are in science and best practices.