Ack! Tarski Banned At MAD!

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_Coggins7
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Post by _Coggins7 »

I have seen the evidence myself---tons of it. In each case, the statistics and mathematical modelling that makes it clear is far beyond you so your opinion is one of the utter opposite of a qualified person.



Typical. So dismally typical. But, its all the Left has, I realize. Let my reiterate again, and this is nothing that any climate scientist does not know for himself: computer modeling is not empirical climate science. The GCM's cannot accurate model global, or regional climate, one week from today, let alone a century from hence, they are in no sense even marginally adequate to realistically model the complex dynamics of global climate variability, there are abyssal gaps in the models ability to deal with fundamental empirical variables (such as clouds), and, probably most importantly, the models can be tweaked by the modelers to produce whatever scenario is desired, from the much more modest appraisals of the last IPCC report, to the apocalyptic scenarios (11 degree and higher) found in the same reports.

You dance and dance and dance, yet again, around the fundamental crux of the matter: long term empirical temperature data, and empirical paleocliamatological data, falsify the models on, at this juncture, quite literally every point.

AGW is over. Climate change is natural, unstoppable, and caused by terrestrial and extraterrestrial dynamics far beyond our ability to control. Our own input to these systems is trivial and, at least at this juncture, unmeasurable against the vast background of natural CO2 emissions.


The majority is the majority and talking of an increasing minority doesn't change that. Even if it were increasing it could well decrease tomorrow (can you predict that?? LOL). As it stands it isn't even close.


More "if its popular, it must be true" argumentation. "Consensus" anyone? Majorities of scientists have been wrong many times before and they will be so again. Science's self correcting feature, while not perfect by any means, will, unless corrupted (as it has been in climatology, by vast sums of government grant money pouring into AGW research that comes with political strings already attached) eventually, as I think it is really beginning to do now across a plethora of related earth sciences, put an end to the nonsense and the corruption and politicization of the discipline of Climatology by government largess and the media hounding of ideologically interested scientists that has been allowed to occur


Let me once again remind you that you are not trained in, do not understand, cannot grasp, will not even try to understand science, it's practitioners or it's politics.


Ahh yes, the first refuge of a scientist practicing ideology: credentialism. Cover your shoddy arguments, logical whoppers, ideological interestedness, and your own lack of specialization in the relevant fields, with elitist posing.

I understand the descriptive science as well as any non-scientist, and as to AGW, I follow the critiques of competent, distinguished, and eminent authorities in the field, not talk show hosts. Perhaps you should try Tap for a while Tarski, Ballet isn't your forté.


You prove it with every statement you make. You can't even keep climate distinct from weather. Hint: One is long term and can be reasonable predicted. The other is hard to predict in the short term and is chaotic. They have different time scales etc. Saying that a climate scientist has no earthly idea what is coming over the next 300 years is like saying that a weatherman has no earthly idea what the weather will be tomorrow.


Keep up the pose Tarski. I'm quite aware of the difference between climate and weather. Its the AGW cultists who are not, and scientists and meteorologists who should know better. Indeed, the majority of environmentalists who pontificate on the issue do not seem to understand the difference between climate change, global warming, and the "greenhouse effect".

But, you make my point yet again. Global climate is an unimaginably complex chaotic system that the CGMs cannot come close to modeling accurately. They are many orders of magnitude away from any adequate understanding of global climate dynamics, and any insistence that future climate--one week from now or one hundred years from now--can be adequately predicted from such models is intellectually dishonest in extremis. We know they cannot, and the modelers know they cannot. The skeptics know it and the global warmers know it. The differences here is ideology and its thorough infusion into the issue.

Global climate varies along timescales that are decadel, centennial, millennial, and in cycles involving tens and hundreds of thousands of years. All are natural, and none are human caused. Our influence upon them, based on everything we know empirically (forget, again, the models and mathematical calculations for a moment, because we are not doing empirical climate science here but...computer modeling, and the empirical data we have does not conform to the models predictions) indicates that our influences is trivial at best, and will have no actual measurable effect on what the global climate system is going to do anyway in response to the factors that do matter (including solar and cosmic factors).


These guys are the world's brightest.


Fine, then lets see them deal with the real world data, and take their eyes of their CRTs for a while. The earth isn't warming. The Antarctic has been cooling slightly for some thirty years now, and its present ice mass is the largest ever recorded by aerial or satellite mapping. Its ice mass is in balance. The main phase of global warming ended in 1940, and the earth cooled from that point on (precisely at the that the CO2 output of the America and the industrialized west skyrocketed) until the early eighties, when a small warming trend set in again, which ended ten years ago, from which point on warming has been flat. None of the modest warming that has occurred this century is unusual. None of it is alarming. All of it is well within natural historical parameters (we are not even near the natural averages experienced during the MVP).

And, even if human warming was known to be occurring, a few points would still need to be made. The first is that the warming is modest, and will occur of a very long period of time, a century at least, which gives us plenty of time to adapt and prepare for any changes that may occur (there is no evidence whatsoever for catastrophic or abrupt climate change).

Everything we know, historically about climate, human thriving, the biosphere generally, and plant physiology indicates that a somewhat warmer world would be a healthier, more productive, and more verdant world, and is nothing to be feared.

Thirdly, even if AGW were true, democratic capitalism, free markets, economic liberty, and the unleashing of the productive, entrepreneurial, and creative capacities of free people are the answer, not conservation, not government imposed energy austerity, not command and control rationing of energy and resources, and not the turning over of our economic lives and of earths resources to bloated, power hungry, rent seeking bureaucracies and political classes.

Science fiction solutions, such as wind and solar, while attractive to the romantic notions of the intellectually immature and ideologically fevered, are utterly infeasible on a mass scale (solar is a great idea, and perhaps when the technology matures and becomes economically rational, perhaps several decades from now, it will be a good idea in and of itself, regardless of the status of AGW. But at present, solutions that would make it difficult for people other than Ted Turner to afford to pay his electric bill, are not solutions at all.)

Of course, nuclear is and always was, the answer to our energy problems, but we can't have that either because of the same bombastic, histrionic pseudo scientific fears of that that the environmental movement has succeeded in instilling in generations of Americans regarding everything from petroleum, to Styrofoam, to plastic, to french fries.
The face of sin today often wears the mask of tolerance.


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_Bond...James Bond
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Post by _Bond...James Bond »

Coggins7 wrote:
Oh my God! I'd love to hear you say this in any political science class, because any professor worth their salt would rip you apart. Of course you wouldn't take the message because you'd say that the Prof. is a Leftist, and thus is wrong.



Bobbing and weaving Bond. Ante up with something substantive and definite or leave the fray.


*Sigh*

Alright. Leftism can mean many things, political liberalism, social liberalism, economic liberalism, etc. Socialism is very focused on economic liberalism, and through the seizure of economic power political liberalism. Your statement does not leave any leeway for people who might be politically liberal and yet want to maintain economic inequality (such as our Founding Fathers...a bunch of rich white men who didn't want to pay taxes.) Thus your statement is wrong. People can be leftists without being socialists.
"Whatever appears to be against the Book of Mormon is going to be overturned at some time in the future. So we can be pretty open minded."-charity 3/7/07
_Tarski
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Post by _Tarski »

Coggins7 wrote:
I have seen the evidence myself---tons of it. In each case, the statistics and mathematical modelling that makes it clear is far beyond you so your opinion is one of the utter opposite of a qualified person.



Typical. So dismally typical. But, its all the Left has, I realize. .

This basically your whole schtick isn't it. "The Left!"

Let my reiterate again, and this is nothing that any climate scientist does not know for himself: computer modeling is not empirical climate science.


Who ever said it was???????? Computer modeling is just like mathematical modeling. It has to be tested against reality and it is only part of an empirical research program. Equations by themselves also do not constitute empirical science. So are you going to ignore the equations of physics?? They use computer modeling in auto accident reconstruction, solar physics, weed dispersal, traffic analysis, medicine, meteorology, and so on. Unfortunately for you no scientist thinks that the computer model by itself justifies conclusions. That's your strawman. Sorry, it isn't the way climate scientists think.

The GCM's cannot accurate model global, or regional climate, one week from today, let alone a century from hence, they are in no sense even marginally adequate to realistically model the complex dynamics of global climate variability, there are abyssal gaps in the models ability to deal with fundamental

And how would you know this?? On what basis do you even begin to have opinions about computer modeling?

Since you haven’t got any scientific arguments that you can authentically advance (you can only parrot), the question becomes one of competence to judge the issue. In a case where that is an issue, ad hominen makes some sense. That's what you are doing anyway, so here it is; the truth:

Should I the tentatively trust the experts or should I trust a nonexpert, ideologue whose intellectual skills aren't good enough to keep him from believing in Kolob, disappearing gold plates translated behind a curtain by a known con artist and into old English in a transparent attempt to make it sound like scripture? Should I take seriously a guy who believes in magic rocks, ghost, spirits, and that the first man lived in a place called Adam-ondi -Ahman in Missouri? A guy who probably takes seriously the idea that God is a glorified mammal and that the universe is filled with similar polygamist white bearded gods who who procreate nonphysical anthropomorphic spirit babies for ever and ever?

You have been conned twice. Once by Joseph Smith and once by Rush Limbaugh. What has it ever gotten you? Are you rich? You don't even sound remotely happy.

By the way, to say that it is rational to trust majority expert opinion in a scientific field that one is not trained in, is certainly not saying that because it is the majority it must be true. I never said that. Of course, you don't care what I really said. I am sorry that you can not follow the argument but that isn't the argument.

Just because 100 cancer specialists say I have cancer does not make it true. I agree Cloggins! It is however, irrational for me to disbelieve it just because I can find a dentist that says I don't have cancer.

You are not an expert. You are just an ideologue that has memorized talking points and gets his science from a former Fox news dork with a website (the ironically named JunkScience).

Even if you were right against all odds, it would be the sheerest of luck since the current situation does not warrant that belief. In the same way, that hopeful dentist might be right and the 100 cancer experts wrong but until something changes I would not be justified in believing the dentist over the oncologists. That would be true even if it was one oncologist against the rest.
when believers want to give their claims more weight, they dress these claims up in scientific terms. When believers want to belittle atheism or secular humanism, they call it a "religion". -Beastie

yesterday's Mormon doctrine is today's Mormon folklore.-Buffalo
_bcspace
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Post by _bcspace »

You are not an expert. You are just an ideologue that has memorized talking points and gets his science from a former Fox news dork with a website (the ironically named JunkScience).


I dunno Tarski. That in and of itself is a left wing talking point.
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_Tarski
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Post by _Tarski »

bcspace wrote:
You are not an expert. You are just an ideologue that has memorized talking points and gets his science from a former Fox news dork with a website (the ironically named JunkScience).


I dunno Tarski. That in and of itself is a left wing talking point.


Its just a fact. Do you deny it?
I am not really on the left as much as in the center but if facts are talking points of the left, then score one for the left I guess. LOL
when believers want to give their claims more weight, they dress these claims up in scientific terms. When believers want to belittle atheism or secular humanism, they call it a "religion". -Beastie

yesterday's Mormon doctrine is today's Mormon folklore.-Buffalo
_bcspace
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Post by _bcspace »

I dunno Tarski. That in and of itself is a left wing talking point.

Its just a fact. Do you deny it?


I do not deny that you just used a left wing talking point.

I am not really on the left as much as in the center but if facts are talking points of the left, then score one for the left I guess.


I've never found left wingers to be very educated or erudite in any cogent sense. One can have a lot of facts at one's disposal and yet lack the sense to put them together.
Machina Sublime
Satan's Plan Deconstructed.
Your Best Resource On Joseph Smith's Polygamy.
Conservatism is the Gospel of Christ and the Plan of Salvation in Action.
The Degeneracy Of Progressivism.
_Moniker
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Post by _Moniker »

Tarski wrote:Even if you were right against all odds, it would be the sheerest of luck since the current situation does not warrant that belief. In the same way, that hopeful dentist might be right and the 100 cancer experts wrong but until something changes I would not be justified in believing the dentist over the oncologists. That would be true even if it was one oncologist against the rest.


Tarski.... you don't have cancer, do you? I so hope not, and hope this was just a way to illustrate your point.
_Tarski
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Post by _Tarski »

Moniker wrote:
Tarski wrote:Even if you were right against all odds, it would be the sheerest of luck since the current situation does not warrant that belief. In the same way, that hopeful dentist might be right and the 100 cancer experts wrong but until something changes I would not be justified in believing the dentist over the oncologists. That would be true even if it was one oncologist against the rest.


Tarski.... you don't have cancer, do you? I so hope not, and hope this was just a way to illustrate your point.


No, I am just making a point as you say. Sorry for the confusion.
when believers want to give their claims more weight, they dress these claims up in scientific terms. When believers want to belittle atheism or secular humanism, they call it a "religion". -Beastie

yesterday's Mormon doctrine is today's Mormon folklore.-Buffalo
_wenglund
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Post by _wenglund »

I noticed on page 2 that Tarski was reinstated, and I have looked through the rest of the thread (all 5 pages) to see if there were any apologies from participants on the first page or so for having rushed to rash judgement much like what the MA&D mods were being accused.

Should I be surprised that I didn't find a single one, but aside from a few expressions of gratitude to the mods, and some off-topic banter with my buddy Coggins, its as though some here bearly broke stride in seemingly relentless heaping of scorn on the MA&D mods?

Thanks, -Wade Englund-
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Post by _Moniker »

wenglund wrote:I noticed on page 2 that Tarski was reinstated, and I have looked through the rest of the thread (all 5 pages) to see if there were any apologies from participants on the first page or so for having rushed to rash judgement much like what the MA&D mods were being accused.

Should I be surprised that I didn't find a single one, but aside from a few expressions of gratitude to the mods, and some off-topic banter with my buddy Coggins, its as though some here bearly broke stride in seemingly relentless heaping of scorn on the MA&D mods?

Thanks, -Wade Englund-


Excuse me? A mod banned Tarski and then he was unbanned. How was there a rush to judgment? I was concerned as to why precisely he was banned and asked why that was so. Later I said I was thankful he was unbanned. Is that more like accessing the situation and commenting on it rather than making judgment calls on the mods? I'd think so.

What should there be an apology for? Should I apologize for noticing that Tarski was banned? Or should I apologize for my questions as to why he was banned? Or should I apologize for my "Thank goodness" post when I mentioned that Tarski was reinstated? Or is it the part where I questioned why MAD would ban a very intelligent, insightful critic? Should I apologize for my posts in which I stated why I don't post there anymore (which had nothing whatsoever to do with mods)? Should I apologize for pointing out to Coggins why I felt it was a poor decision to ban Tarski?

Which post of mine would you desire an apology for?
Last edited by Guest on Tue Apr 15, 2008 12:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
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