For antishock: Demonstrate the truth of this proposition...

[_antishock8]

http://stommel.tamu.edu/~baum/ocean_models.html

So, I went back to the Internet, and found a great resource for oceanic current models, statistics, and graphs. The point of this reference to establish the fact that while the ocean itself experiences general patterns on a macro level, it is extremely chaotic on a micro level. To point, while it's possible 8 barges drifting for 344 days could find a similar tide or ocean current, it's impossible for them to depart from a singular location, drift for 344 days, and arrive at a singular point as described in the Book of Ether.

As an example I give you this:

http://www.agu.org/sci_soc/ducks.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Frie ... oatees.png

Even with the advantage of being dumped from a starting point at mid-ocean an incredibly dispersed result occurred, not to mention an extremely low recovery rate.

The idea that 8 wooden barges, the size of a tree, could withstand 344 days of often violent drift, and not disperse over a wide area, much less not be destroyed, is statistically impossible.

Perhaps a better example of drift by various objects are summarized in this url:

http://www.afsc.noaa.gov/REFM/docs/oscu ... o_know.htm

[_antishock8]

http://www.calcofi.org/newhome/publicat ... trange.pdf

Wow. The more I look into oceanic drift analysis, the more problematic the Jaredite barge story becomes. I'm glad CK challenged me on this point, because I went from a vague certainty that ocean currents and point to point group integrity were completely imcompatible to a statistical improbability that I didn't even know existed. The recovery rate alone of drift material gives one serious pause reference the idea that just one out of eight barges would even make it ashore, much less eight out of eight barges.

[_SatanWasSetUp]

http://www.calcofi.org/newhome/publications/CalCOFI_Reports/v25/pdfs/Vol_25_Dewees___Strange.pdf

Wow. The more I look into oceanic drift analysis, the more problematic the Jaredite barge story becomes. I'm glad CK challenged me on this point, because I went from a vague certainty that ocean currents and point to point group integrity were completely imcompatible to a statistical improbability that I didn't even know existed. The recovery rate alone of drift material gives one serious pause reference the idea that just one out of eight barges would even make it ashore, much less eight out of eight barges.

Yeah, but if god guided them there you can throw all your fancy science in the garbage because god can do anything because he is the master scientist. Anyway, I think the Book of Mormon is "true" in the same way that any religious text that a group of religious believers worship is true. If everyone in the group believes it is true, then it is "true" to them. It doesn't matter what outsiders believe about it. The Book of Mormon has been completely rejected as a true book by those outside the Mormon church, but non-mormons, for the most part, respect it as a religious text. The fact is, The Book of Mormon is a niche religious text, but it is not considered a history text even by those who would be genuinely interested in a historic document of ancient america. If you're a Mormon, it's true. If you're not a Mormon it is fiction.

[_christopher]

The idea that 8 wooden barges, the size of a tree, could withstand 344 days of often violent drift, and not disperse over a wide area, much less not be destroyed, is statistically impossible.

You are arguing statistical drift analysis of a story that also includes magical glowing rocks?

This seems akin to me to arguing how Santa could not statistically deliver packages to all the children of the world but ignoring discussing the idea of flying reindeer.


Chris <><

[_antishock8]

The idea that 8 wooden barges, the size of a tree, could withstand 344 days of often violent drift, and not disperse over a wide area, much less not be destroyed, is statistically impossible.

You are arguing statistical drift analysis of a story that also includes magical glowing rocks?

This seems akin to me to arguing how Santa could not statistically deliver packages to all the children of the world but ignoring discussing the idea of flying reindeer.


Chris <><

I understand, but I was making a negative assertion that the Book of Mormon is not a true history. CK called me on it, saying I can't prove this particular negative. I took him up on his challenge. I wasn't able to provide a convincing proof because I lacked statistical analysis of oceanic drift patterns. To use his term, I wasn't making a cogent argument on behalf of my negative assertion.

I think I'm getting closer to proving my assertion which is: It is a mathematical impossibility that 8 barges as described in the Book of Ether, could be released at the same point, at the same time, and arrive across any large sea/ocean and arrive at the same point, 344 days later, having been driven by winds and ocean currents. Nothing more.

If the Book of Mormon is a true history it has to be true that multiple items could leave on singular point, drift across the ocean/seas, and arrive at another singular point. I think I'm starting to provide enough information to "prove" my negative assertion. It's a mathematical impossibility that 8 barges could do what the Book of Ether says happened.

[_Buckeye]

I think I'm getting closer to proving my assertion which is: It is a mathematical impossibility that 8 barges as described in the Book of Ether, could be released at the same point, at the same time, and arrive across any large sea/ocean and arrive at the same point, 344 days later, having been driven by winds and ocean currents. Nothing more.

If the Book of Mormon is a true history it has to be true that multiple items could leave on singular point, drift across the ocean/seas, and arrive at another singular point. I think I'm starting to provide enough information to "prove" my negative assertion. It's a mathematical impossibility that 8 barges could do what the Book of Ether says happened.

I think you are overlooking the text of the Book of Ether which indicates that the winds that pushed the barges were themselves directed by the Lord.

Ether 2:24 For behold, ye shall be as a whale in the midst of the sea; for the mountain waves shall dash upon you. Nevertheless, I will bring you up again out of the depths of the sea; for the winds have gone forth out of my mouth, and also the rains and the floods have I sent forth.

...

Ether 5:5 And it came to pass that the Lord God caused that there should be a furious wind blow upon the face of the waters, towards the promised land; and thus they were tossed upon the waves of the sea before the wind.

So unless you believe that the oceanic current models you found on the internet similarly involve winds directed by deity, you are comparing apples to oranges.

Also note that the very word "driven" suggests a directional force, not something random. Dictionary.com's definition of "drive" includes "to cause and guide the movement of (a vehicle, an animal, etc.): to drive a car; to drive a mule."

[_antishock8]

Hmm... Good point. I suppose the earlier point about deus ex machina comes back to haunt my assertion.

Damn it.

[_Buckeye]

Hmm... Good point. I suppose the earlier point about deus ex machina comes back to haunt my assertion.

Damn it.

Wait a minute, was that a concession? ... I thought this board was full of psychopaths who could never be persuaded against their prejudices. Now I'm really confused. :)