Dr. Shades wrote:Yeah, but keep in mind that you referenced conversions. I can agree with you on that. This does not, however, address all of your own paragraph immediately previous to it: That of controlling the future of Mormonism.
You see, the future of Mormonism isn't contingent on what converts someone. The future of Mormonism is only contingent on what retains someone. After the honeymoon phase, converts typically come across the straight dope sooner or later and need answers. Since the General Authorities don't have any answers, they must rely on the MI, FAIR, etc. and their ilk. Hence the G.A.s' need to be circumspect and avoid saying anything which will contradict MI et. al.
Shades, in my case FARMS (and DCP in particular) played a strong role in my sundry returns to the Church. However, if it were not for my belief in the Book of Mormon, FARMS would have got no where. No Book of Mormon, and the Church would never have seen me again. A major turning point for me on the historicity question was reading two books,
New Approaches to the Book of Mormon (Metcalfe), and volume 6 of the
Review, which was a review of the Metcalfe book. I read those two books over and over, comparing them with detailed notes, and in the end I gave
New Approaches the thumbs up. As far as historicity was concerned, FARMS lost the battle, in my case. But I was not your average unquestioning member, and by that time I had been reading Signature books for ten years. All of the members, in both wards I attended, were either ignorant of, or uninterested in the "problems" that confronted me. They were baffled that I could lose my basic faith because of books. The leaders, concerned about me, often advised me to "avoid anti-Mormon literature". These are all the "stalwarts", the faithful, I'm talking about, for whom "gospel scholarship" means nothing, and FARMS means nothing. Their Church membership is not dependent on logical analysis, and they are the vast majority. I was the exception to the rule, and I am in the small minority. Most members are not like me, or you, or those who frequent message boards, whom I call "the thinkers", the questioning.
Look at the poll I did on the
Review. Seven people voted that they had read a "large amount" of the
Review, and this board is largely ex-Mormon, but also has informed Mormons, yet only seven could say they had read a large amount. What does that tell you? That FARMS can save the Church? That FARMS can control the future of Mormonism?
I'll concede some points. If you're talking about the overall apologetic effort, FARMS, FAIR, SHIELDS, Mike Ash ("Shaken Faith Syndrome"), Michael Griffith,
et.al , then yes, they, overall, may have some effect in "retaining". There is essentially a battle for minds and hearts going on, but I don't think MI controls this, though they do have a large influence in apologetics. I believe FAIR has done a better job than FARMS/MI on the Internet, and they both work together. How far and wide this "battle" will go, I don't know, nor how many members in the future will turn to them for help, but I suspect the majority won't. It says the believers will "overcome by faith", not "overcome by faith with the help of the MI". I really wonder if you have an understanding of how deep this faith is, Shades, since it's been a long time since you were a true believer. I think you underestimate it, and the strength of it.
As for the leadership, well in spite of FARMS insisting that the LGM, LGT is "the only true model", the Church has not stated this officially. Even with the Watson incident, there is still no official statement on Book of Mormon geography, and the Meldrum affair proves that for many/most members, the field of interpretation is still wide open. Sorenson has been writing about this, including in the
Ensign, since c.1984. Has any of it sunk in? Very little has. The Church has had 24 years and more to make an official statement, but they have never even come out and said "we believe Dr. Sorenson is correct". You know Packer's aversion to scholarship as far as the gospel is concerned. As far as I know, he's never shown an interest in formal apologetics, and doesn't believe that faith and testimony rests upon this, and I believe he's very far from alone on this. Maxwell was an "intellectual", like B.H.Roberts (but not quite in his mould), and a rare breed among the GAs. Are they paying attention? Sure. Does their faith rest upon this? Far, far from it. Will they revise the geography and make an official statement? Maybe, when the Prophet receives a revelation. Not on the say-so of FARMS. And until the Prophet receives a revelation, the MI isn't going to "control" anything.
We in our little message board world magnify all this because we are familiar with all the issues, and because they have directly affected us, but they have not affected the vast majority. And of the vast majority who leave, they don't leave because of apologetic battles, they leave for a wide variety of reasons, which could include simply not wanting to live the Mormon lifestyle anymore. In my area the inactivity rate is about 75-80%, and that has been consistent even before FARMS was a twinkle in John Welch's eye.
Have you analysed Uncle Dale's (Dale Broadhurst) reasons why people leave the Church? He posted this on FAIR on July 21, 2006, and I was so impressed with his reasoning that I copied it. Here they are:
As I may have mentioned a time or two, I host a Solomon Spalding web-site and get
e-mail regarding that subject every day. It has been very, very rare that I've seen an
active LDS investigate that subject, and then lose their testimony. It has happened a
couple of times, but I think that is extremely unusual.
On the other hand, I frequently get communications from ex-members, or from
disgruntled members who are already "a leg and two arms" out of the Church. Those
sorts of folks suddenly become super-interested in the whole Book of Mormon authorship matter,
as though it were the most important thing in the world. But, as I said, that isn't what
moves previously faithful members out of the LDS Church.
What does? Here's my guesses, in order:
(1) Personal unhappiness, discomfort, embarrassment, hurt, insult, or criticism.
(2) Family problems -- troubles with non-LDS family members -- divorces, etc.
(3) Transgression -- a desire to live a less "holy" life, or less restricted life -- often
prefigured by secret experimentation in elements of an alternative lifestyle.
(4) Evangelism -- being convinced that another denomination is more "true" or
more "correct," or more "accepting, or more something...
(5) Seeing hypocrisy in ward/branch/stake leaders or prominent members. Seeing
"unworthy" members given seemingly inapproptiate callings, etc.
(6) Disagreements over doctrines, matters of history, conflicts in authority, etc.
Uncle Dale
So why would the Church leaders worry so much about apologetics, or think it necessary to "bow" to apologists?