Fact Checking Nelson's "Doors Of Death" light aircraft near death experience

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Re: Fact Checking Nelson's "Doors Of Death" light aircraft near death experience

Post by Gadianton »

Res Ipsa wrote:When I read the claim file, I learned that the insured was a refugee from another country. I did some poking around and learned that refugees from that country tended not to trust banks and that it was common for them to keep large amounts of cash hidden in their homes.

So, ask yourself. Did the claim rep have a reasonable basis for concluding that the theft of cash didn’t occur? (Reasonable basis is the requirement for claim denial under my state’s law.)
I totally agree with that, but, to me, TR and IHAQ are sorta doing something a little bit different than either you or the adjuster.

TR and IHAQ are presenting evidence that DOES show how Nelson might fabricate his account, based on researching his habits in other scenarios, just as you showed that it's plausible for underbanked refugees to save cash. Dr. W wrongly assumes Nelson would record some kinds of details that would allow him to substantiate his case on a later date. Dr. W is correct that he SHOULD have gathered facts, but so should the refugee had gotten a bank account. As the refugee had an incentive to behave irrationally, Nelson also has an incentive, as it's a huge part of Mormon culture to blow personal experiences out of proportion, and to accept what a leader says on faith. He had no incentives whatsoever to do anything at all to substantiate what happened. The very opposite. Even if there was a plane with an engine fire, and it dived and landed in a field, there is still an incentive to embellish it further, polishing it into the perfect parable. There is no incentive at all to have a definitive account written down to go back to, that might squelch an additional spiritual insight that requires an invented fact.

The other part of what Dr. W and Dr. M are saying as I understand it, I totally agree with. Absence of evidence in this case feels very wrong. That pilot, and a whole lot of other people, have an account of what happened, if it happened, and that none of this was ever made public or discoverable is hard to fathom. And I agree with them that it's a case that can skirt psychological commentary. There should be some minimal corroboration out there. we can remain agnostic as to how the story originated at a psyche level.
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Re: Fact Checking Nelson's "Doors Of Death" light aircraft near death experience

Post by Dr Moore »

The way Nelson describes the other passengers and the pilot is very impersonal here. I think for that reason we can rule out personal/private aircraft. It had to have been a commercial flight. And for that reason, in the pre-1979 timeframe, I believe it had to be Sky West.

This website appears to have a database of all incident reports, including engine failures, going back to 1973.

Sky West had 5 incident reports in the state of Utah before 1979.
There were 8 engine failure incidents reported in Utah before 1979.

None matches the description in Nelson's story. Maybe I'm doing the wrong parameter searches.
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Re: Fact Checking Nelson's "Doors Of Death" light aircraft near death experience

Post by Res Ipsa »

Dr Moore wrote:
Fri Apr 02, 2021 8:13 pm
The way Nelson describes the other passengers and the pilot is very impersonal here. I think for that reason we can rule out personal/private aircraft. It had to have been a commercial flight. And for that reason, in the pre-1979 timeframe, I believe it had to be Sky West.

This website appears to have a database of all incident reports, including engine failures, going back to 1973.

Sky West had 5 incident reports in the state of Utah before 1979.
There were 8 engine failure incidents reported in Utah before 1979.

None matches the description in Nelson's story. Maybe I'm doing the wrong parameter searches.
To me, the problem is the repeated piling on of assumptions. Unless you have some talent for mind reading or have some special insights into Nelson’s style of writing, your basis for ruling out private plane or charter isn’t reasonable.

Are you sure you understand what is and isn’t in the database you are looking at?
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Re: Fact Checking Nelson's "Doors Of Death" light aircraft near death experience

Post by Res Ipsa »

DrW wrote:
Fri Apr 02, 2021 6:15 pm
Res Ipsa wrote:
Fri Apr 02, 2021 4:35 pm
To put it in terms of Baysesian analysis: what should results of Dr W's Google search look like if the story were true and if it were false. If Google has not included information sources that would report have reported events in the 1970s, then the evidence we should expect is the same in both cases.
The internet search with that particular string was intended as an example only. I should have stated that explicitly, although it should have been clear in the context of the post. As everyone knows, to make a Bayesian estimate of the probabilities, one should attempt to categorize and consider all relevant information available, including the assertions of Nelson and his associates. Otherwise you would be right - GIGO. Bayesian reasoning is somewhat subjective anyway. The advantage is that you can quickly update your probability estimates when new information becomes available.

That's why I suggested looking for the pilot and/or aircraft logbooks. The Pilot's Logbooks are almost certainly out there, even if the pilot is retired or passed away. If found, these could greatly help Nelson's case. In fact, if found intact, they could well contain incontrovertible evidence. (Case closed you might say - or not.)

I still have all of mine, starting from February 1st, 1971. I can tell you when I flew, what I flew, where I went, visibility (VFR / IFR / Night), hours logged, and any unusual events, for every flight as a pilot over the last 50 years or so. One of my kids will probably have them after I die. The contents are prompts for some great family stories.
__________________________________________________

James 1:5 (Modern Science Version):
If any of you lacks sufficient information for a decision,
Let him ask of the Reverend Bayes who, with the math of LaPlace,
Shall giveth unto him an equation,
From which a pretty good estimate of probability shall cometh
.
It sounds to me like the log books would be the definitive evidence. If we were reasonably certain we knew the right flight to look at, the absence of a record of any problems in either log book would lead me to adopt your conclusion — that he imagined (or fabricated) the entire story.

I’m skeptical about the idea that we’ve identified the right flights. I’m really hoping there’s some detail in the autobiography that confirms one or more of the following: date of flight, route of flight, scheduled v. Charter v. Private plane. I’m very skeptical about later-added details, especially ones that first appear as something other than a direct quotation. If it’s not a direct quotation, then someone other than Nelson is telling the story. (Cough, cough — Sheri Dew)

Love the updated scripture.
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Re: Fact Checking Nelson's "Doors Of Death" light aircraft near death experience

Post by DrW »

Dr Moore wrote:
Fri Apr 02, 2021 8:13 pm
The way Nelson describes the other passengers and the pilot is very impersonal here. I think for that reason we can rule out personal/private aircraft. It had to have been a commercial flight. And for that reason, in the pre-1979 timeframe, I believe it had to be Sky West.

This website appears to have a database of all incident reports, including engine failures, going back to 1973.

Sky West had 5 incident reports in the state of Utah before 1979.
There were 8 engine failure incidents reported in Utah before 1979.

None matches the description in Nelson's story. Maybe I'm doing the wrong parameter searches.
Dr. Moore, Your website is a great find. Looks like the Holy Grail of aviation accident and incident information to me. No need to be concerned about entering the wrong search parameters. After entering the time interval for the search, just leave the other parameter values alone and designate the State of Utah.

Searching only the date and state parameters settings, one can see every FAA aviation accident and incident report in the State of Utah for a given year or other time interval. I did the search for 1976.

FAA Accidents and Incidents Query
Occurrence date from equal 1976-01-01
Occurrence date to equal 1977-01-01
Accident state code equal UT


It took less than ten minutes to carefully evaluate the 54 returns for viable aircraft type (there were only 7) and then to check the details of each event. Details on each clearly ruled them out as possibly being involved in the Nelson story.

So, as far as I'm concerned, this FAA listing provides incontrovertible evidence against such an incident as described by Nelson in 1976.
_____________________

For anyone wishing to spend more time looking for supporting evidence in other years - clicking on Dr. Moore's link will take you directly to the Aviation DB website. Once there, leave all parameter values at default except for the dates and the state. Designate "UTAH", set your date interval, then press 'Run Query'.

After about five seconds the website will return a list of occurrence dates, last report update dates, and aircraft make and group. Scan the list for 'PIPER' under "Aircraft Make" and click on 'Details'. If you want to save time, look for 'PA31' under "Aircraft Group", which is a Piper Navaho light twin most likely flown by SkyWest at the time and the plane Nelson was most likely fantasizing about. SkyWest may have also had Piper Chieftains in service on those routes.

There were no viable candidates listed in 1976 (nobody damaged a Navajo in Utah that year). If you think it may have been some aircraft other than a SkyWest Piper Navajo, check for any Cessna 400 series planes, Metro II, and Piper Chieftains. That's pretty much it for smaller twins in commercial service in Utah in 1976.
Last edited by DrW on Fri Apr 02, 2021 10:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Fact Checking Nelson's "Doors Of Death" light aircraft near death experience

Post by Dr Moore »

Res Ipsa wrote:
Fri Apr 02, 2021 8:38 pm
To me, the problem is the repeated piling on of assumptions. Unless you have some talent for mind reading or have some special insights into Nelson’s style of writing, your basis for ruling out private plane or charter isn’t reasonable.
I'm sure you don't mean to argue that it's pointless to (1) look for the evidence of an incident report about a a twin engine plane that made an emergency landing with one exploded engine, and then (2) report back when nothing turns up matching the time frame and circumstances as conveyed by Nelson. The absence of an incident report *might* simply means we haven't found it yet, I guess, like our missing Lehites.

Re-read the 1985 accounting above - Nelson included a fascinating detail that I'm not sure he included in any other versions.
the pilot "was able to glide us, following a highway, until we could make an emergency landing." (later added, "in a field")
Looking on a map, as a plane flies, SLC to SGU flies nearly just over highway 15 in southern Utah. Nelson's description puts this emergency landing somewhere off of highway 15, south of Fillmore (the roughly half way point). And from other versions, we know he means to convey Nov. 12, 1976, because of his relief over making it to his event at Dixie on time.

Also, I missed one other detail earlier. The exploded engine, he says, was on the wing opposite to Nelson, closest to the "hysterical" woman. So Nelson would have observed the "exploded" engine through the opposite side window. Think that is relevant.
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Re: Fact Checking Nelson's "Doors Of Death" light aircraft near death experience

Post by Dr Moore »

DrW wrote:
Fri Apr 02, 2021 9:59 pm
So, as far as I'm concerned, this FAA listing provides incontrovertible evidence against such an incident as described by Nelson in 1976.
Wasn't sure what I had found there, but it does appear to be a database of every "incident" and "accident" reported to the FAA. It includes failure mechanisms such as pilot error, in-air collisions, runway accidents, and yes, engine failures.

While the NTSB might not have been notified(?) it seems unbelievable that a plane with one failed engine, making an emergency landing near highway 15, in a field, in or just south of the Fillmore-Beaver area, wouldn't have generated an incident report.

Nelson never says how he got the rest of the way to St. George. That's puzzling.
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Re: Fact Checking Nelson's "Doors Of Death" light aircraft near death experience

Post by DrW »

Res Ipsa wrote:
Fri Apr 02, 2021 9:27 pm
I’m skeptical about the idea that we’ve identified the right flights. I’m really hoping there’s some detail in the autobiography that confirms one or more of the following: date of flight, route of flight, scheduled v. Charter v. Private plane. I’m very skeptical about later-added details, especially ones that first appear as something other than a direct quotation. If it’s not a direct quotation, then someone other than Nelson is telling the story. (Cough, cough — Sheri Dew)

Love the updated scripture.
Thanks, Res Ipsa. As to your stated concern regarding the right flights, Dr. Moore has uncovered what has turned out to be the definitive source of information on aircraft incidents and accidents in Utah. Please have a look at his post above with the link, and my post above with results for 1976 and instruction on use of the website. (Doubtful the latter will be needed, but just in case.)

As Dr. Moore points out, this website provides definitive FAA information for every incident and accident reported to the FAA in Utah for every year since 1973. Please keep in mind that pilots have a legal responsibility to report to the FAA any damage to their aircraft that could adversely affect its flight characteristics, designated as substantial damage.

As described in the above post, I have done a careful search for 1976 and found nothing even remotely close to what Nelson described anywhere in the State of Utah. If it is not listed on this website, it didn't happen in 1976, period.
Last edited by DrW on Sat Apr 03, 2021 12:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Fact Checking Nelson's "Doors Of Death" light aircraft near death experience

Post by Res Ipsa »

DrW wrote:
Fri Apr 02, 2021 9:59 pm
Dr Moore wrote:
Fri Apr 02, 2021 8:13 pm
The way Nelson describes the other passengers and the pilot is very impersonal here. I think for that reason we can rule out personal/private aircraft. It had to have been a commercial flight. And for that reason, in the pre-1979 timeframe, I believe it had to be Sky West.

This website appears to have a database of all incident reports, including engine failures, going back to 1973.

Sky West had 5 incident reports in the state of Utah before 1979.
There were 8 engine failure incidents reported in Utah before 1979.

None matches the description in Nelson's story. Maybe I'm doing the wrong parameter searches.
Dr. Moore, Your website is a great find. Looks like the Holy Grail of aviation accident and incident information to me. No need to be concerned about entering the wrong search parameters. After entering the time interval for the search, just leave the other parameter values alone and designate the State of Utah.

Searching only the date and state parameters settings, one can see every FAA aviation accident and incident report in the State of Utah for a given year or other time interval. I did the search for 1976.

FAA Accidents and Incidents Query
Occurrence date from equal 1976-01-01
Occurrence date to equal 1977-01-01
Accident state code equal UT


It took less than ten minutes to carefully evaluate the 54 returns for viable aircraft type (there were only 7) and then to check the details of each event. Details on each clearly ruled them out as possibly being involved in the Nelson story.

So, as far as I'm concerned, this FAA listing provides incontrovertible evidence against such an incident as described by Nelson in 1976.
_____________________

For anyone wishing to spend more time looking for supporting evidence in other years - clicking on Dr. Moore's link will take you directly to the Aviation DB website. Once there, leave all parameter values at default except for the dates and the state. Designate "UTAH", set your date interval, then press 'Run Query'.

After about five seconds the website will return a list of occurrence dates, last report update dates, and aircraft make and group. Scan the list for 'PIPER' under "Aircraft Make" and click on 'Details'. If you want to save time, look for 'PA31' under "Aircraft Group", which is a Piper Navaho light twin most likely flown by SkyWest at the time and the plane Nelson was most likely fantasizing about. SkyWest may have also had Piper Chieftains in service on those routes.

There were no viable candidates listed in 1976 (nobody damaged a Navajo in Utah that year). If you think it may have been some aircraft other that a SkyWest Piper Navajo, check for any Cessna 400 series planes, Metro II, and Piper Chieftains. That's pretty much it for smaller twins in commercial service in Utah in 1976.
Dr. W,

I spent a fair amount of time checking out that website to try and understand exactly what I was looking at. So, I'm going to give you my understanding and ask you to double check me.

That website aggregates information from other websites, including the FAA and NTSB websites. Currently, there are three relevant "documents." First , the FAA has a voluntary reporting system. There is no legal requirement to file any accident or incident report. So, the FAA reports are not a complete set of all accidents or incidents.

The other two documents are a mandatory notice that the owner must file under certain circumstances. If the what happened was an "accident" according to the NTSB's definitions, this notice must be filed within a short time of the accident (10 days?). Everything that happens that might impact flight safety is an "incident." The notice is not required for all "incidents." The regulations define certain types of incidents that might be reported (I've seen them referred to sometimes as "serious" incidents, although I don't think that's the official term.

The last document is an NTSB Accident/Incident Report. It has to be filed for accidents. Whether it is required for an incident is determined by the NTSB.

So, under current regulations, an incident that does not fit into one of the specified categories is not required to be reported to the FAA or NTSB. As the Aviation DB simply pulls data from the FAA or NTSB databases, there is no reason to believe that the Aviation DB contains all "incidents."

Now, the current regulations date back to 1988. I've looked for earlier versions, but it looks like I would have to go to a library that has a 1976 copy of the Code of Federal Regulations available. If you can point me to a legal requirement that an accident or incident report had to be filed with the FAA in 1976, that would clear out a ton of underbrush.

If I go to the FAA webpage, where the Aviation db says it pulls its data from, I learn that the FAA database for "incidents" goes back only to 1978, not 1973. https://www.asias.faa.gov/apex/f?p=100:2:::NO::: I even tried a query from the database for 1976 just in case the FAA didn't know the date range of it's own database. No returns. So, according to the FAA, it does not have a database that includes ANY incidents from 1976. So, neither does the Aviation DB.

So, how could we test to see whether the Aviation DB actually includes incidents from 1976. I'm gonna try this: run a query limited only to Utah and calendar year 1976. Be right back.

Well, it was easier than I thought. It took two quick searches because I could restrict to Incident - Commercial and then Incident-General Aviation. I got no hits. So, what's more likely: (1) There were no aviation incidents in Utah during calendar year 1976 or (2) The FAA incident data available on Aviation DB does not include 1976?

So, to recap. The failure to find an incident -- even a reportable incident -- in the Aviation DB FAA database you used for the year 1976 means absolutely nothing. The only hits you got on your search were accidents. Holy Grail my ass.

Just to review the bidding, your claim was that the best fit explanation for the evidence is: Nelson imagined the entire incident a result of experiencing turbulence on a flight. My claim was that your claim isn't reasonable based on the state of the evidence. But, just for yuks, let's make it easier by narrowing the possibilities down to two competing hypotheses.

Hypothesis one: Nelson experienced turbulence during a flight, which prompted him to imagine the entire story.

Hypothesis two: Nelson was on a flight that experienced a failure of one of the two engine. The plane went into a dive that Nelson did not expect, causing him to think he was going to die. The plane recovered from the dive. It landed safely, powered by the other engine. No one was injured, and the plane did not sustain "substantial damage" as defined by the NTSB.

Under each hypothesis, what would we expect to find if we did a search on the Aviation DB FAA database, limited only to 1976 and Utah?
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Re: Fact Checking Nelson's "Doors Of Death" light aircraft near death experience

Post by Res Ipsa »

DrW wrote:
Fri Apr 02, 2021 10:23 pm
Res Ipsa wrote:
Fri Apr 02, 2021 9:27 pm
I’m skeptical about the idea that we’ve identified the right flights. I’m really hoping there’s some detail in the autobiography that confirms one or more of the following: date of flight, route of flight, scheduled v. Charter v. Private plane. I’m very skeptical about later-added details, especially ones that first appear as something other than a direct quotation. If it’s not a direct quotation, then someone other than Nelson is telling the story. (Cough, cough — Sheri Dew)

Love the updated scripture.
Thanks, Res Ipsa. As to your stated concern regarding the right flights, Dr. Moore has uncovered what has turned out to be the definitive source of information on flights in Utah. Please have a look at his post above with the link, and my post above with results for 1976 and instruction on use of the website. (Doubtful the latter will be needed, but just in case.)

As Dr. Moore points out, this website provides definitive FAA information for every incident and accident reported to the FAA in Utah for every year since 1973. Please keep in mind that pilots have a legal responsibility to report to the FAA any damage to their aircraft that could adversely affect its flight characteristics, designated as substantial damage.

As described in the above post, I have done a careful search for 1976 and found nothing even remotely close to what Nelson described anywhere in the State of Utah. If it is not listed on this website, it didn't happen in 1976, period.
Please read my last post. The assumptions you made are 100% wrong.

Remember, the correct order is ready, aim fire. ;)
Last edited by Res Ipsa on Sat Apr 03, 2021 12:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
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