Fact Checking Nelson's "Doors Of Death" light aircraft near death experience

[IHAQ]

Your framework is logical, RI. I appreciate your thoroughness. If the burden is "beyond a reasonable doubt" then you've clearly shown us the wide breach of reasonable doubt that exists here.

At the same time, my confidence in the truthfulness of Nelson's account is much lower today than on the first day this thread went up. It might all be chalked up to absence of evidence. But absence of so much evidence that should be out there is troubling.

That absence of evidence is compounded by small inconsistencies, such as the fact that no commercial flights flew direct from SLC to SGU in the 1970s -- Sky West served SGU via Cedar City.

If this was a commercial flight, then his story has a huge gaping hole because he claims the pilot announced passing the half way point of no return to St. George. That makes utterly no sense at all for a flight bound from SLC to Cedar City. Maybe Nelson just recalls the "half-way" announcement but forgot by the time of retelling, that it was a connecting flight. But his retelling was very specific in this regard, that the pilot said they'd gone half way to St. George, not half way to Cedar City. Why add that very specific detail if he wasn't sure in 1979 or 1981 or whenever he first told the story?

If he flew a private charter direct, then his story also has a huge gaping hole because the half way point from SLC to SGU is well south of Delta Utah -- at least 20 miles south of Delta, to be more accurate. Nelson says the incident occurred "shortly after" that point-of-no-return announcement. Okay, so did this harrowing nose dive occur 20 miles or 25 or 30 miles south of Delta? Whatever. The point is, to spin dive and nearly hit the ground, only to stabilize and then fly literally for 20+ miles on one engine means the plane was very much flying (not gliding) toward Delta. So then, this pilot just decided to land in a field and not land at the the actual Delta Airport? So the private charter explanation strains credulity even more.

I agree and would add:
- The sending of another plane (how did anyone know to send it? It lands where?) to pick Nelson up which ensured he arrived on time, seems like a lot of effort and expense just to make sure Nelson got to say an opening prayer.
- Nelson has been caught repeating a lie about another life anecdote to make a situation seem miraculous in which he is at the centre.

This was purportedly a life-changing event for Nelson. If his memory was foggy about this or that specific detail, he should leave them out. Or just admit he doesn't remember that detail. If he retells a specific detail, he owes his audience the courtesy of being accurate and truthful. Otherwise, it's no better than Dunn. Nelson's account is very specific and not only that, he makes comments that impress on the listener's/reader's mind that the vividness of his memory is important for the real point he's making about the vividness of clarity he felt regarding peace in his life's choices, temple sealing, and all of that. Specificity is important to his story because it's the specifics that make his story real.

Nelson has prefaced the plane anecdote on a number of occasions with the phrase "I remember vividly an experience I had as a passenger in a small two-propeller airplane."
https://www.churchofjesuschrist.org/stu ... h?lang=eng

[tapirrider]

You’ve determined it’s just a “fantasy” without looking at a single document from the National Archives.

It is just a fantasy. No different than Nelson's fantasy of a gun being held to his head, the trigger pulled and the miraculous misfire, sparing his life, all in an incident in Africa that was well documented by others who were present, who said nothing of Nelson's tall tale. Nelson is a bullshitter. The burden at this point is on him and his defenders to provide the source document of evidence. No document is going to be found. Nelson could clear all of this up had his official biographer simply footnoted a reference to such a document. And you could just as well go search those hard copy records but instead you are choosing to drag this on and on over online availability of records.

[IHAQ]

You’ve determined it’s just a “fantasy” without looking at a single document from the National Archives.

It is just a fantasy. No different than Nelson's fantasy of a gun being held to his head, the trigger pulled and the miraculous misfire, sparing his life, all in an incident in Africa that was well documented by others who were present, who said nothing of Nelson's tall tale. Nelson is a bullshitter. The burden at this point is on him and his defenders to provide the source document of evidence. No document is going to be found. Nelson could clear all of this up had his official biographer simply footnoted a reference to such a document. And you could just as well go search those hard copy records but instead you are choosing to drag this on and on over online availability of records.

I think that's an interesting point. Dew provides no footnote, cites no source for this quite detailed story:

On November 12, 1976, Russell Nelson had boarded a commuter plane in Salt Lake City to fly the quick route to St. George, Utah, where he was to give the invocation at the inauguration of W. Rolfe Kerr as the president of Dixie College.

It was a short hop of less than an hour in a small, two-engine propeller plane. Only four passengers were on board. The pilot had just announced that they were halfway to St. George when the engine on the right wing exploded, spewing oil all over the right side of the aircraft and then bursting into flames. In an attempt to douse the flames, the pilot turned the fuel off, causing the small plane to go suddenly into a free fall death spiral.

The woman across the aisle from Russell began to scream hysterically. But Russell felt calm. “It was the most amazing thing,” he said. “I thought, ‘My wife and I are sealed. Our children are sealed to us. I’ve honored my covenants. I’ll meet my ancestors and go on to a glorious resurrection..'”

He was, however, impressed with how quickly and comprehensively the mind can work. “It’s true, your life does flash before you. I had a bright recollection and perfect remembrance of my whole life. One major thought was that all of the framed awards and honors on my wall, the various clothes I’d worn — tuxedos and uniforms and doctoral robes — didn’t mean anything. What mattered was that I had my garments on and had been faithful to the covenants I’d made in the temple. I knew I was going to die, but I knew I would be fine.”

Miraculously, the free fall extinguished the fire, and, in the nick of time, the pilot was able to start the left engine, regain control of the plane, and guide it to an emergency landing in a farmer’s field not far from Delta, Utah. Everyone walked away from the incident unharmed. Another plane was dispatched, and Russell made it to St. George in time to give the invocation.

Did Dew make all the details up? That's unlikely. So she got those facts from somewhere. Where? A simple "from the journal of R. M. Nelson 1976" or "from Heart To Heart R. M. Nelson's autobiography" would suffice. Why no reference to source material?

[IHAQ]

A technical question - in a twin-engine propeller plane is the performance of both engines connected? If one explodes does the second automatically stop?

[tapirrider]

A technical question - in a twin-engine propeller plane is the performance of both engines connected? If one explodes does the second automatically stop?

No, the other engine would not have stopped.

[IHAQ]

That summer, Sun Valley Airlines was acquired by Key Transportation and became "Sun Valley Key Airlines."[5] In 1974, the airline was serving Boise and Sun Valley in Idaho as well as the following destinations in Utah via a small hub in Salt Lake City: Brigham City, Logan, Moab, Ogden, Price and Provo.[6] It was sold to Johns-Mansville Corporation in 1975,[7] and its name was changed back to "Key Airlines" in 1976.[8] The airline's base was Salt Lake City, Utah (SLC) and by this time the aircraft of choice was the Convair 440,[9] although other smaller turboprop and prop aircraft were used as well.

According to the February 1, 1976 edition of the North American Official Airline Guide (OAG), Sun Valley Key Airlines was operating scheduled passenger flights as a commuter air carrier from Salt Lake City (SLC) to a number of destinations in California, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada and Utah.[10] These flights primarily served smaller communities in the region; however, service was also flown into larger cities such as Boise, ID (BOI), Grand Junction, CO (GJT), Oakland, CA (OAK) and Reno, NV (RNO). The primary aircraft types used for these flights were small Piper Cherokee and Piper Navajo prop airplanes although larger de Havilland Canada DHC-6 Twin Otter and Convair 440 aircraft were also being flown at this time between Salt Lake City and Sun Valley, ID (SUN) as well as between Boise and Sun Valley.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Key_Airlines#cite_note-10

This sounds like the type of (if not the) operator of small commuter flights between Salt Lake City and St. George in 1976.
I enquired about obtaining 1976 data from the Official Airline Guide (OAG) but they operate an annual subscription model which costs £4,000.

[Res Ipsa]

IHAQ, Dews book does include a section called Sources, but It was not included in any of the free previews I could find. I don’t know whether it breaks them down by story.

[IHAQ]

IHAQ, Dews book does include a section called Sources, but It was not included in any of the free previews I could find. I don’t know whether it breaks them down by story.

It would be interesting to see what's in that section. I've ordered a copy...the least I can do is put my money where my mouth is!

[DrW]

What I see from others, you included, is a form of Dunning-Kruger where experience and knowledge of modern flight procedures and airplane mechanics yielded an early assumption and now all of your intellectual effort is going into defending that assumption rather than actual careful unbiased investigation.

Res is doing it right. You could learn from him here.

Honorentheos,
Your offhand comment about individuals on this thread, including those with relevant professional expertise, exhibiting Dunning-Kruger symptoms was offensive and uncalled for.

Individuals to whom you attribute Dunning-Kruger behavio include a professional aircraft mechanic, a college professor specializing in probability and statistics, and an experienced pilot. We, and others, have reached the conclusion that the incident described, in falsifiable detail by Russell M. Nelson, simply did not happen.

Or, as Lem might put it, ‘Given the evidence, the probability that the event happened as described by Russell M. Nelson is so vanishingly small as to warrant no further consideration.’

Our conclusions were reached after not only weighing the relevant evidence, but after having spent a great deal of time looking for more. There was no pre-conceived conclusion for which we sought confirmation. You are attributing the mindset of religionists to aircraft professionals, college professors and scientists.

Have you even read my first post on this thread where I described how one could embellish the experience of a poorly handled engine-out event to come up with Russell M. Nelson's story? My comments were exceedingly generous in that regard. Problem is, there is no evidence whatsoever for such an engine-out event, let alone one with a fire and a death spiral plunge in flames with a miraculous left engine re-start to save God's chosen.

What reflects still worse on your judgement is your suggestion that someone holding a commercial pilot’s license with multi-engine and instrument ratings who has owned two aircraft and flown dozens more, including Piper twins, could learn a lot about decision making related to aviation from an attorney who came to the thread not knowing the difference between a flame out and a tailpipe fire, or an incident from an accident, who doesn’t read or understand the evidence presented by others, resorts to ad hominem attacks when shown to be in error, asks silly questions, and now fancies himself an expert aviation accident investigator.

One who blithely attributes Dunning-Kruger to an entire group of professionals from different disciplines, with relevant experience well in advance of what he himself possess, might do well to look in the mirror.

[Res Ipsa]

IHAQ, Dews book does include a section called Sources, but It was not included in any of the free previews I could find. I don’t know whether it breaks them down by story.

It would be interesting to see what's in that section. I've ordered a copy...the least I can do is put my money where my mouth is!

Cancel that order! (Unless you're a Sheri Dew fan. ) I found a copy at my local library and I'm going through the e-book right now! I'll copy and post the Sources Cited section.

ETA: Here is the Sources Sited Section:

Andersen, Neil L. Facebook post. @LDS.neil.l.andersen, August 15, 2018. ———. “A Holier Approach to Ministering.” BYU Devotional, April 10, 2018. ———. “The Prophet of God.” Ensign, May 2018. ———. “The Voice of the Lord.” Ensign, November 2017. Bednar, David A. “Gather Together in One All Things in Christ.” Ensign, November 2018. Bingham, Jean B. “Ministering as the Savior Does.” Ensign, May 2018. Christofferson, D. Todd. “The Elders Quorum.” Ensign, May 2018. Church News/KSL Interviews. January 5, 8–11, 2018. Condie, Spencer J. Russell M. Nelson: Father, Surgeon, Apostle. 2003. Cook, Quentin L. “Deep and Lasting Conversion to Heavenly Father and the Lord Jesus Christ.” Ensign, November 2018. Cowdery, Oliver. “Dear Brother.” Messenger and Advocate, vol. 1, no. 1 (October 1834): 14–16. Dew, Sheri L. Ezra Taft Benson: A Biography. 1987. ———. Go Forward with Faith: The Biography of Gordon B. Hinckley. 1996. “Discovering a Surgical First: Russell M. Nelson and Tricuspid Valve Annuloplasty.” BYU Studies 17, no. 3 (1977): 319–37. Eaton, Robert I., and Henry J. Eyring. I Will Lead You Along: The Life of Henry B. Eyring. 2013. “Elder Russell M. Nelson of the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles.” Ensign, May 1984. “Elders Maxwell, Nelson welcomed in China.” Church News, April 29, 1995. “Funeral Services for Elder Richard L. Evans,” Ensign, December 1971. Gardner, Barbara Morgan. Interview with Russell M. Nelson. Salt Lake City, Utah, August 30, 2013. Gardner, Marvin K. “Elder Russell M. Nelson: Applying Divine Laws.” Ensign, June 1984. “Global Ministry Tour.” Video released by Church News, 2018. Greenberg, Heidi. Interview with Russell M. Nelson. University of Utah School of Medicine, November 13, 2015. Hafen, Bruce C. A Disciple’s Life: The Biography of Neal A. Maxwell. 2002. Hinckley, Gordon B. “Small Acts Lead to Great Consequences.” Ensign, May 1984. ———. “Stand Strong against the Wiles of the World.” Ensign, November 1995. Holland, Jeffrey R. “Be With and Strengthen Them.” Ensign, May 2018. Johnson, Lane. “Russell M. Nelson: A Study in Obedience.” Ensign, August 1982. Kimball, Spencer W. Teachings of Presidents of the Church: Spencer W. Kimball. 2006. ———. “The Uttermost Parts of the Earth.” Regional Representatives’ Seminar, September 29, 1978. ———. “When the World Will Be Converted.” Ensign, October 1974. “Latter-day Saint Prophet, Wife and Apostle Share Insights of Global Ministry.” Video, October 30, 2018. www.mormonnewsroom.org/article
/latter-day-saint-prophet-wife-apostle-share-insights-global-ministry. “LDS Church announces historic changes to missionary age requirements,” ksl.com, October 6, 2012. “LDS Church to Release ‘Come, Follow Me’ Curriculum in 2019 for Home, Primary and Adults,” ldschurchnews.com, July 6, 2018. Madsen, Truman G. The Presidents of the Church: Insights into Their Lives and Teachings. 2004. McCombs, Brady. “Mormon church appoints 93-year-old ex-surgeon as president.” Chicago Tribune, January 16, 2018. “Missionaries perform humanitarian service.” Church News, December 7, 1991. Monson, Thomas S. “The Power of the Book of Mormon.” Ensign, May 2017. ———. “See Others as They May Become.” Ensign, November 2012. ———. “Welcome to Conference.” Ensign, November 2012. “The Name of the Church.” Newsroom statement, August 16, 2018. Nelson, Russell M. “Becoming Exemplary Latter-day Saints.” Ensign, November 2018. ———. “Becoming True Millennials.” Worldwide Devotional for Young Adults, January 10, 2016. ———. “Begin with the End in Mind.” BYU Fireside, September 30, 1984. ———. Benemérito de las Américas address. January 29, 2013; transcription in author’s possession. ———. “The Book of Mormon, the Gathering of Israel, and the Second Coming,” Ensign, July 2014. ———. “The Book of Mormon: What Would Your Life Be Like without It?” Ensign, November 2017. ———. “Call to the Holy Apostleship.” Ensign, May 1984. ———. “Children of the Covenant.” Ensign, May 1995. ———. “The Correct Name of the Church.” Ensign, November 2018. ———. “Drama on the European Stage.” Ensign, December 1991. ———. “Drawing the Power of Jesus Christ into Our Lives.” Ensign, May 2017. ———. “Faith and Families.” BYU Devotional, February 6, 2005. ———. From Heart to Heart: An Autobiography. 1979. ———. “Historic Site of Translation, Revelation, and Restoration,” September 19, 2015. https://www.mormonnewsroom.org/article
priesthood-restoration-site-dedication-transcript. ———. “Identity, Priority, and Blessings.” BYU Devotional, September 10, 2000. ———. “Introductory Remarks.” Ensign, May 2018. ———. “Lessons Life Has Taught Me.” Seattle Area Devotional, September 15, 2018. ———. “Let Us All Press On.” Ensign, May 2018. ———. “The Lord Uses the Unlikely to Accomplish the Impossible.” BYU–Idaho Devotional, January 27, 2015. ———. “Opening Remarks.” Ensign, November 2018. ———. “A Plea to My Sisters.” Ensign, November 2015. ———. “The Price of Priesthood Power.” Ensign, May 2016. ———. “Revelation for the Church, Revelation for Our Lives.” Ensign, May 2018. ———. “The Sabbath Is a Delight.” Ensign, May 2015. ———. “Spencer W. Kimball: Man of Faith.” Ensign, December 1985. ———. “Sustaining the Prophets.” Ensign, November 2014. ———. “Sweet Power of Prayer.” Ensign, May 2003. ———. “Thus Shall My Church Be Called.” Ensign, May 1990. Nelson, Russell M., and Wendy W. Nelson. “Hope of Israel.” Worldwide Youth Devotional, June 3, 2018. ———. RootsTech Family Discovery Day—Opening Session 2017. https://www.LDS.org/topics/family-histo ... day/nelson. Nelson, Russell M., Jr. Remarks at President Nelson’s ninety-fourth birthday devotional (author’s notes), September 9, 2018. “New Church Logo Announced.” Ensign, October 1996. Oaks, Dallin H. “The Plan and the Proclamation.” Ensign, November 2017. ———. “President Russell M. Nelson: Guided, Prepared, Committed.” Ensign, May 2018. Pinegar, Ed J. What Every Future Missionary and Their Parents Need to Know. 2016. “Popes and Prophets.” Church News video, October 27, 2018. https://www.you
tube.com/watch?v=fFQV7rOQRn0. “President Hinckley Says Lord, Not Men, Called Pair.” Deseret News, April 9, 1984. “President Nelson Dedicates Concepción Chile Temple.” www.mormonnewsroom.org/article/presiden ... ile-temple, October 28, 2018. Rasband, Ronald A. “Behold! A Royal Army.” Ensign, May 2018. Smith, Joseph. Teachings of Presidents of the Church: Joseph Smith. 2007. Stack, Peggy Fletcher. “Mormonism was born in the USA but, under Nelson, is quickly embracing its growing multiculturalism as it aims to become a truly global religion.” Salt Lake Tribune, July 24, 2018. Stevenson, Gary E. “The Heart of a Prophet.” Ensign, May 2018. Swinton, Heidi S. To the Rescue: The Biography of Thomas S. Monson. 2010. Taylor, Scott. “Experiences from pulpit’s ‘other side.’” Church News, September 15, 2018. ———. “‘We’re correcting a name,’ President Russell M. Nelson tells Latter-day Saints in Canada.” Deseret News, August 18, 2018. Walch, Tad. “Church leaders want Utah Legislature to legalize medical marijuana by year’s end.” deseretnews.com, September 16, 2018. ———. “Inside the collaboration between the LDS Church and NAACP.” Deseret News, July 22, 2018. ———. “President Nelson calls Chile temple dedication ‘heavenly crescendo’ for 5-nation tour.” deseretnews.com, October 28, 2018. ———. “President Nelson condemns religious violence in wide-ranging interview.” deseretnews.com, October 26, 2018. ———. “Q&A: Elder Holland opens up about personal life struggles, speaks with young married Latter-day Saints in Anglican Oxford chapel,” the churchnews.com, November 24, 2018. Weaver, Sarah Jane. “Dantzel Nelson Succumbs at Age 78.” Church News, February 17, 2008. ———. “Get to Know President Russell M. Nelson, a Renaissance Man.” Church News, January 16, 2018. ———. “Seattle crowd of nearly 50,000 hear President Nelson call today ‘the most crucial era in the history of the world.’” Church News, September 15, 2018.

Argh, the line breaks weren’t preserved. I’ll try to clean it up as time permits.

And here’s a section of the introduction that I think contains helpful information:

Some may accuse me of bias in the writing of this work, and I can understand why. I first met Wendy Watson in 1997, four days after I had been called to serve as a counselor in the Relief Society General Presidency. She was then a professor of marriage and family therapy at BYU and, as it happens, the keynote speaker for the BYU Women’s Conference that year. To the surprise of both of us, we became the dearest of friends. Since her marriage to Elder Nelson in 2006, he too has become a treasured friend. So have I selected and interpreted the material in this book from a biased perspective? Perhaps. May I suggest, however, that my association with the Nelsons has given me access to information, conversations, and personal experiences that likely would not have been available to another writer. I hope my point of view is more informed than it is biased. In that regard, if quotations from President and Sister Nelson were published elsewhere, I have included the appropriate references. If they came from interviews I conducted, I have not referenced the dates of those interviews—and simply acknowledge hours of recorded conversation with them both over about a year’s period of time. My acquaintance with the Nelsons notwithstanding, I acknowledge a much greater bias, a definite frame of reference, that has had the greatest influence on this selection of episodes from President Nelson’s life. I believe that one of the hallmarks of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints is that we are led by a living prophet. And I have believed—in fact, I have known this—for a long time. The first time I ever saw a prophet in person was 1966. I was twelve, and our family had driven from Ulysses, Kansas, to Salt Lake City, Utah, to attend general conference for the first time. We stood in long lines outside the Tabernacle to get in. Once we found seats in the balcony, the benches were hard and the meetings long for an antsy preteen. I will admit to being more fascinated with the KSL cameraman, who in that era sat on a seat that was raised and lowered by a small hydraulic lift, than with the speakers. But after the last session, something unforgettable happened. President David O. McKay, wearing that patented white suit of his and with his signature white, flowing hair that made him look every inch a prophet, walked out of the Tabernacle onto Temple Square and stopped and talked to a group of youth waiting for him. I was one of those youth, and I’ve never forgotten how I felt as he talked to us. I did not get to shake his hand, but at one point he looked right at me, and as he did I felt a sensation run the length of my body. I don’t know that I understood what I was feeling at that moment, but I can track the beginning of my testimony of the living prophet to that experience. It is a moment frozen in time for me. Since then, I’ve had the unique privilege of associating closely with four prophets—Presidents Ezra Taft Benson, Gordon B. Hinckley, Thomas S. Monson, and Russell M. Nelson—and have been in their presence hundreds of times. This familiarity has not bred contempt or anything remotely related to it. To the contrary, the more closely I’ve worked with them, and the more I have observed them in a wide array of settings, the more remarkable they have become in my eyes. And the Spirit has borne witness again and again that I am in the presence of a prophet.

ETA: There is no "acknowledgments" section, in which an author thanks those who helped in the writing process. There is no reference anywhere to an editor. There is no reference to research assistants or fact checkers.

And I think the following, which appears immediately before what I quoted above has some relevance:

President Gordon B. Hinckley once told me, referring to himself as well as his Brethren of the General Authorities, “We are ordinary men called to do an extraordinary work.” I partly agree with him. Taking the gospel to every nation, kindred, tongue, and people is an extraordinary work—and really, when you think about it, beyond the capacity of anyone or even any group of people. But this is not the work of man. It is the Lord’s. And He has chosen and prepared prophets to lead us, guide us, warn us, counsel us, and convey His love to us. The part of President Hinckley’s statement that doesn’t resonate with me is the “ordinary man” part. He likely meant to convey what King Benjamin told his people—that they shouldn’t regard him as anything more than a mortal man. “I am like as yourselves,” he said, “subject to all manner of infirmities in body and mind” (Mosiah 2:10–11). But prophets are not ordinary. There is nothing ordinary about their foreordination. There is nothing ordinary about the burden and privilege they assume when they are called to lead the Lord’s Church. And there is nothing ordinary about the tutorial and course work the Divine Schoolmaster puts them through. Each prophet’s mortal schooling is singular. In studying a prophet’s life, we see how the Lord molds, prepares, and tutors a man so that at the appointed hour, he is able, worthy, and ready to be His mouthpiece and to lead His people. Like those who have preceded him, President Russell M. Nelson is no ordinary man. His professional accomplishments as one of the earliest pioneers of open-heart surgery are well documented. His contributions to the Church as a General Authority and General Officer now span four decades. His personal attributes are exemplary. He is exceptional in so many ways. And yet he, like King Benjamin and every other prophet who has ever lived, has felt pain, made mistakes, fallen short at times, and been called upon to do things that at the time looked impossible. These experiences have led to one of President Nelson’s favorite phrases—that the Lord uses the unlikely to accomplish the impossible, and he has often used himself as a perfect example of that truth.