Fact Checking Nelson's "Doors Of Death" light aircraft near death experience

[Res Ipsa]

On the 54 returns I got, including the one Dr. Moore posted, there are all sorts of accidents. Some minor. Some major. I have a hard time believing an engine blowout, a nosedive, and an emergency landing wouldn't have been reported and not show up in this database if these other reports are any sort of indicator. But, hey. You never know. Maybe there was a cover up, noncompliance, and a data entry problem. Anything is possible, just ask Russell M. Nelson.

- Doc

You can tell if a report is an accident or an incident by looking at the description of the damage to the aircraft and injuries to the passengers. It's an accident if the damage is reported as "substantial" or "destroyed" or if the injuries are reported as "serious" or "fatal."

[Tom]

I got no hits for Utah when I ran a search for incidents (event type) in 1976.

[Res Ipsa]

RI,

It's the link that's been provided. When you click on Event Type you just use the All setting, which includes incidents. Or you can check all the options, too.

- Doc

Well, that's the problem. Assume I'm right and you search all for 1973-1977, but the database contains incident beginning in 1978. You get a bunch of results. How many of them are incidents?

[Dr Moore]

Were you able to locate any incidents from 1973 through 1977 in Utah? If so, would you mind posting a screen shot of the list of hits.

Database returns no incidents at all pre1978. I think you said that once before, but I misread that some incidents were included.

ETA: it does seem to include a very large number of accidents with minor damage. Eg, not substantial damage, which as written appears to exclude damage to just 1 engine, minor skin punctures, or damage to landing gears (among other minor damages).

[DrW]

DrW, please read my actual words. Every entry in your image is an accident, not an incident. I know. I looked. They all report "substantial damage." Now, rerun your search changing the search parameter to Incidents -- Commercial Aviation and then Incidents - General Aviation. Please report the total number of hits for each. If, as you keep claiming, the database includes reports of incidents dating back to 1973, each of those searches should generate a list of incidents, which we can verify by looking at the entries. And you should be able to screenshot examples of records of incidents that occurred from 1973 through 1977.

Please return and report.

ETA, your second image, which is of an individual record, is not from the years 1973 through 1977. It is from 1979

The image of the details report was one that had already been posted and was provided as an example for you. Below is one from 1973. The pilot reported a hard landing. The description of the event says: Pilot made a hard landing on his first approach. [The pilot] Executed a go-around and made a second hard final landing.

It could not have been a very bad "accident" because the pilot went around and did the same thing again. Do you believe that every hard landing is an accident?

It seems pretty clear that they did not include a separate incident category on the detail table. There is no need since this is an accident and Incident data base. Type of Accident cell is where the event being reported is categorized, often using standard abbreviations.

If you went to the database, you have noticed that the data based contains Accident Type descriptions all the way from hard landing or ground loop (minor indiscretions on the runway) to aircraft demolished ( wherein someone was likely killed). The first two would be classified as incidents, the third was an accident.

[Res Ipsa]

I got no hits for Utah when I ran a search for incidents in 1976.

Thanks for checking Tom. I think I'm understanding the problem now. If you choose "all" as the search parameter for occurrence type, yyou'll get a list of occurrences. But the list itself doesn't tell you whether you are looking at an accident or incident. So, the fact that you get hits by searching "all" can't tell you whether the database contains incidents for the year(s) you are searching.

It looks to me that this is what we're actually looking at. The FAA database says it contains only FAA Incident Reports from 1978 on. It says it gets its data on accidents from the NTSB. I don't know whether the FAA database scrapes the NTSB database and pulls in the accidents or whether the Aviation DB site aggregates the two databases. But I think it's clear that an "all" search during the 1970s returns whatever is in the NTSB database: all accidents and selected incidents. And I've found exactly one incident for the entire decade in Utah.

[Doctor CamNC4Me]

I got no hits for Utah when I ran a search for incidents (event type) in 1976.

Yeah, clicking the 54 results I'm only seeing Accidents. But they're all over the place with regard to damage and injury. Perhaps incidents were classified as accidents once an investigation was completed?

- Doc

[Res Ipsa]

Were you able to locate any incidents from 1973 through 1977 in Utah? If so, would you mind posting a screen shot of the list of hits.

Database returns no incidents at all pre1978. I think you said that once before, but I misread that some incidents were included.

ETA: it does seem to include a very large number of accidents with minor damage. Eg, not substantial damage, which as written appears to exclude damage to just 1 engine, minor skin punctures, or damage to landing gears (among other minor damages).

I don't think you misread. I think the Aviation DB site misstates. It SAYS 1973, but the description is wrong. The actual indecent data start in 1978, just like the FAA database that the Aviation DB scrapes from.

[Dr Moore]

If you went to the database, you have noticed that the data based contains Accident Type descriptions all the way from hard landing or ground loop (minor indiscretions on the runway) to aircraft demolished ( wherein someone was likely killed). The first two would be classified as incidents, the third was an accident.

So it's just very interesting, DrW.

If Nelson's event was classified an incident, then it seems we have no record to check against.

As described, I think the code is written such that it could have been (had to have been?) classified as an accident with minor damage. I don't think Nelson's description matches the definition for substantial damage. So in your judgment, could the as-advertised Nelson flight of terror event have qualified as only an incident? I have already forgotten, or missed, the part where someone laid out the dividing line between accident--minor damage and an incident.

[Res Ipsa]

DrW, please read my actual words. Every entry in your image is an accident, not an incident. I know. I looked. They all report "substantial damage." Now, rerun your search changing the search parameter to Incidents -- Commercial Aviation and then Incidents - General Aviation. Please report the total number of hits for each. If, as you keep claiming, the database includes reports of incidents dating back to 1973, each of those searches should generate a list of incidents, which we can verify by looking at the entries. And you should be able to screenshot examples of records of incidents that occurred from 1973 through 1977.

Please return and report.

ETA, your second image, which is of an individual record, is not from the years 1973 through 1977. It is from 1979

The image of the details report was one that had already been posted and was provided as an example for you. Below is one from 1973. The pilot reported a hard landing. The description of the event says: Pilot made a hard landing on his first approach. [The pilot] Executed a go-around and made a second hard final landing.

It could not have been a very bad "accident" because the pilot went around and did the same thing again. Do you believe that every hard landing is an accident?

It seems pretty clear that they did not include a separate incident category on the detail table. There is no need since this is an accident and Incident data base. Type of Accident cell is where the event being reported is categorized, often using standard abbreviations.

If you went to the database, you have noticed that the data based contains Accident Type descriptions all the way from hard landing or ground loop (minor indiscretions on the runway) to aircraft demolished ( wherein someone was likely killed). The first two would be classified as incidents, the third was an accident.

Doc, I've asked multiple times for something that would either confirm or refute my description of what's in the database. My specific claim that you take issue with is that it does not include incidents from 1973 through 1978. I've asked you to provide a list of, or specific records for, incidents from 1973 through 1977. If those documents are contained in the database, you could retrieve them in a minute or two.

So far, you've shown me:

1. A list of accidents from 1973.
2. A report of an incident from 1979

and now, an accident report from 1973. It says right on the form. GENERAL AVIATION ACCIDENT. It lists the damage as "substantial."

It's a very simple request to test which reports are in the data and which are not. I'm not interested in your arguments about the nature of accidents. You've been claim that the relevant incident reports are in the database since a week ago Friday.

True or False: the database you are searching does not contain any reports of incidents in Utah for the years 1973-1977.

And if the answer is false, provide a screenshot of the evidence.