Drifting wrote:Keith,
I'm going to disagree with, but only slightly.
There will always be adherants to some form a mystical or supernatural comfort blanket. Religion is one example.
For example, there are still a few people around who believe in and follow David Koresh. The structure may have gone but some people will hold on to the beliefs.
Mormonism is based on money.
That's the one thing that cause the Church a problem in terms of its longevity. And they are being clever about it. They have a significant principal sum that is invested and which they protect at all costs.
When times are tight they shed non-profit making costs, a good example being the janitors.
The Church is surviving primarily on it's returns on investments. Active membership runs somewhere less than 40% and only a proportion of those will be tithe payers. A proportion will also be receiving funds rather than giving funds. It's a problem.
You can see the emphasis that is constantly there about paying your tithing. FP letters, conference talks, lessons etc. Pay your tithing. In truth the Church really does need it, but not for the reasons members think. Without it they have to use the interest on the invested principal sum. When financial crisis hits (and the current one is longer and deeper than for a generation) then the Church has to dip into the principal sum as there isn't enough interest to pay the wages, as it were.
It's a formula that results corporately in bankruptcy.
Outgoings > Incomings = Bust
Now the Church can survive this for a while because it has a large principal sum invested. But that is currently being eroded and tithing income is declining. It's worth pointing out that tithing income is reducing at the same time as the Church claims increasing membership. That means converts in the main are of the need money variety rather than the give money type.
It will be the money that causes the biggest headaches in COB.
"you can buy anything in this world for money"
Even a religion it seems.
Another problem that the church is going to have long term is that they have a lot of assets in the church right now that would be hard to divest and hard to use to generate income (at least directly). For example, temples don't do much more than sit there. Sure, they help members to pay a full tithe, but if that is decreasing world-wide anyway, those temples start to lose value pretty fast.
Also, as the trend has been going over the past 20 years or so, the church is committed to cranking out more temples to keep up the illusion of explosive growth. Those things are expensive to build and expensive to maintain. They can cut costs somewhat by making mini-temples, but I suspect that only goes so far. Hell, with City Creek, if worse comes to worse, at least they can sell the thing, even at a loss. They can't even sell the temples; nobody wants to buy them and the members would be incensed.
Yep, the future financials of the church look bleak. I agree with you.