Brace yourself, bcspace, for 4 more Obama years

[_sock puppet]

The GOP Deserves to Lose
That's what happens when you run with losers.

Let's just say right now what voters will be saying in November, once Barack Obama has been re-elected: Republicans deserve to lose.

It doesn't matter that Mr. Obama can't get the economy out of second gear. It doesn't matter that he cynically betrayed his core promise as a candidate to be a unifying president. It doesn't matter that * * *

Above all, it doesn't matter that Americans are generally eager to send Mr. Obama packing. All they need is to be reasonably sure that the alternative won't be another fiasco. But they can't be reasonably sure, so it's going to be four more years of the disappointment you already know.

As for the current GOP field, it's like confronting a terminal diagnosis. There may be an apparent range of treatments: conventional (Romney), experimental (Gingrich), homeopathic (Paul) or prayerful (Santorum). But none will avail you in the end. Just try to exit laughing.

* * *

Then there is Mitt Romney, even now the presumptive nominee. If Mr. Gingrich demonstrated his unfitness to be a serious Republican nominee with his destructive attacks on private equity (a prime legacy of the Reagan years), Mr. Romney has demonstrated his unfitness by—where to start?

Oh, yes, the moment in last week's debate when Mr. Romney equivocated about releasing his tax returns. The former Massachusetts governor is nothing if not a scripted politician, and the least one can ask of such people is that they should know their lines by heart. Did nobody in Mr. Romney's expensive campaign shop tell him that this question was sure to come, and that a decision had to be made, in advance, as to what the answer would be? Great CEOs don't just surround themselves with consultants and advance men. They also hire contrarians, alter egos and at least someone who isn't afraid to poke a finger in their chest. On the evidence of his campaign, Mr. Romney is a lousy CEO.

But it's worse than that. The usual rap on Mr. Romney is that he's robotic, but the real reason he can't gain traction with voters is that they suspect he's concealing some unnameable private doubt. Al Gore and George Bush Sr. were like that, too, and not just because they were all to the proverbial manor born. It's that they were basically hollow men.

Thus the core difference between Mr. Romney and Mr. Obama: For the governor, the convictions are the veneer. For the president, the pragmatism is. Voters always see through this. They usually prefer the man who stands for something.

* * *

And the U.S. will surely survive four more years. Who knows? By then maybe Republicans will have figured out that if they don't want to lose, they shouldn't run with losers.

[_DrW]

As for the current GOP field, it's like confronting a terminal diagnosis. There may be an apparent range of treatments: conventional (Romney), experimental (Gingrich), homeopathic (Paul) or prayerful (Santorum). But none will avail you in the end. Just try to exit laughing.

This has to be one of the most insightful and on-point political analogies that has come along in any presidential campaign, ever. The author has accurately characterized the entire Republican field, and the upcoming election, in one succinct paragraph.

Brett Stephens should get a raise - a big one.

[_EAllusion]

Intrade has Obama at a 55% chance of winning. I think that's about right, and it is a near coin-flip. If you think he's got a much better chance than that, I recommend putting some money down.

[_DrW]

Intrade has Obama at a 55% chance of winning. I think that's about right, and it is a near coin-flip. If you think he's got a much better chance than that, I recommend putting some money down.

The relatively narrow Obama lead at this point will get wider as the Republican party continues to show, through their "flavor of the week" support of their candidates, that even they don't like any of their choices.

This will be reinforced by the viscious attacks of the candidates on one another during the primary process. By the time Gingrich gets done savaging Romney, and Romney gets done savaging the truth, the Republican party will be unable to recover from the bloodletting in time to wage an effective campaign.

[_EAllusion]

The relatively narrow Obama lead at this point

That % isn't based upon a temporary polling lead. Polling isn't too useful this far out. In this case, it's the collective wisdom of profit-motivated forecasting. IEM, which is stronger, has Obama at 49.1% of the two-share vote, which makes him a slight dog. Other types of models have it at a near coin flip too. Again, if you think that Obama's pretty much got this one in the bag, you stand to make a lot of money through Intrade betting. Right now, you could double your money. Try to get 100% return on your stock portfolio by November.

[_EAllusion]

Pollyvote's econometric models, which are the strongest form of forecast modeling at this particular stage of the campaign season, have averaged Obama's projected two-party vote (what % of the votes Obama will get between him and the Republican) at 49.8%. If that prediction were dead on that's almost certainly an Obama loss. Fortunately for those who don't want to see that happen, there's a margin of error that makes that number a virtual coin flip.

[_Yoda]

Intrade has Obama at a 55% chance of winning. I think that's about right, and it is a near coin-flip. If you think he's got a much better chance than that, I recommend putting some money down.

The relatively narrow Obama lead at this point will get wider as the Republican party continues to show, through their "flavor of the week" support of their candidates, that even they don't like any of their choices.

This will be reinforced by the viscious attacks of the candidates on one another during the primary process. By the time Gingrich gets done savaging Romney, and Romney gets done savaging the truth, the Republican party will be unable to recover from the bloodletting in time to wage an effective campaign.

Have you forgotten how vicious the Clinton/Obama race was?

I think that the rabbit Obama could pull out of his hat is dumping Biden as the VP and asking Hillary to take Biden's place. That might swing it back his way.

[_sock puppet]

The relatively narrow Obama lead at this point

That % isn't based upon a temporary polling lead. Polling isn't too useful this far out. In this case, it's the collective wisdom of profit-motivated forecasting. IEM, which is stronger, has Obama at 49.1% of the two-share vote, which makes him a slight dog. Other types of models have it at a near coin flip too. Again, if you think that Obama's pretty much got this one in the bag, you stand to make a lot of money through Intrade betting. Right now, you could double your money. Try to get 100% return on your stock portfolio by November.

Obama has the experience of having been through a successful Presidential general campaign. Romney has twice now (2008 and 2012) sputtered between moments of an organized, well-oiled machine campaign and deer-in-the-headlights catastrophes. (The problem's not with the campaign, it's with the candidate.)

If coming out of the conventions, the Republican nominee is not up in the polls by more than 5 points, the Obama re-election campaign will chip away and take over the polling lead by Oct 10 and march into victory by 3-4 points.

The Republicans best hope for 2012 will be Middle East-ern angst at Obama and manipulating the price of oil to translate into $4/gallon gas. No incumbent that inherited $1.68/gallon gas could survive that much of an uptick in cost of the lifeblood of our economy and lifestyles.

[_RockSlider]

I think that the rabbit Obama could pull out of his hat is dumping Biden as the VP and asking Hillary to take Biden's place. That might swing it back his way.

Hillary Laughed this suggestion off the other day. Said no way, she is retiring in the upcoming year

[_Yoda]

I think that the rabbit Obama could pull out of his hat is dumping Biden as the VP and asking Hillary to take Biden's place. That might swing it back his way.

Hillary Laughed this suggestion off the other day. Said no way, she is retiring in the upcoming year

That's too bad. I think that might be the one thing that would revive his campaign. I would give his presidency a second look.