The 2012 Election

[Guest]

Here we are a few months away from the 2012 election. Remember folks that 270 votes out of 538 is required to win. I think Obama is going to win. The problem for Romney is that the electoral math doesn't add up for him. Here's my breakdown of the electoral votes:

Safe Obama: 227
California-55 (2008 - Obama)
New York-29 (2008 - Obama)
Illinois-20 (2008 - Obama's home state)
Washington-12 (2008 - Obama)
Oregon-7 (2008 - Obama)
Massachusetts-11 (2008 - Obama)
New Jersey-14 (2008 - Obama)
Hawaii-4 (2008 - Obama)
Minnesota-10 (2008 - Obama)
Maryland-10 (2008 - Obama)
Wisconsin-10 (2008 - Obama)
Michigan-16 (2008 - Obama)
New Mexico-5 (2008 - Obama)
Maine-4 (2008 - Obama)
Delaware-3 (2008 - Obama)
Connecticut-4 (2008 - Obama)
Vermont-3 (2008 - Obama)
Rhode Island-3 (2008 - Obama)
DC-3 (2008 - Obama)

Safe Romney: 159
Texas-38 (2008 - McCain)
Tennessee-11 (2008- McCain)
Kentucky-8 (2008 - McCain)
Louisiana-8 (2008 - McCain)
Alabama-9 (2008 - McCain)
Mississippi-6 (2008 - McCain)
Alaska-3 (2008 - McCain)
Oklahoma-7 (2008 - McCain)
Kansas-6 (2008 - McCain)
Nebraska-5 (2008 - McCain)
North Dakota-3 (2008 - McCain)
South Dakota-3 (2008 - McCain)
Montana-3 (2008 - McCain)
Wyoming-3 (2008 - McCain)
Utah-6 (2008 - McCain)
Idaho-4 (2008 - McCain)
Georgia-16 (2008 - McCain)
West Virginia-5 (2008 - McCain)
South Carolina-9 (2008 - McCain)

Now since the election is six months away I'm going to be very modest with my discussion about swing states. I currently list the following states as tossup (I'll put which direction I think they'll go in parentheses).

Tossup: 152
Florida-29 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
Ohio-18 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
Pennsylvania-20 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
Indiana-11 (Romney) (Obama-2008)
Arizona-11 (Romney) (McCain-2008)
Colorado- 9 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
Nevada-6 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
Missouri-10 (Romney) (McCain-2008)
New Hampshire-4 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
Iowa-6 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
North Carolina-15 (Romney) (Obama-2008)
Virginia-13 (Obama) (Obama-2008)

You might be surprised to see Arizona listed but a couple of recent polls show that Arizona appears to be in play. Several of these states will probably slide into lock position (such as Colorado, New Hamsphire, Nevada, and Pennsylvania for Obama and Missouri, Arizona, and Indiana for Romney) but the problem quickly emerges that Romney has very little room for error. Obama has many more paths to victory while Romney has to hold all previous votes as well as pick off almost 100 votes. It might happen but I don't see it happening, particularly with Obama's well oiled election machine and Mitt Romney's own likability problems (including among Republicans).

My prediction: Obama 332, Romney 206

Romney's best case scenario is that Romney holds all states and then wins Iowa, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Indiana, and North Carolina to squeak out 272-266. Obama's best case scenario is that he takes all states he won in 2008 and picks off maybe Arizona, Missouri, and South Carolina to win 388-150. A total worst case doomsday scenario for Romney also might include a Democratic pickup of Texas, Georgia, North Dakota, or Montana which is possible considering the small populations in those northern states and increased Latino populations in Texas and Georgia.* Obama's worst case scenario is that Romney holds all states McCain won in 2008 and Romney wins Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, Michigan, New Hampshire, Indiana, Virginia, and Wisconsin. To do that Obama would have to have a major scandal or some other catastrophe. It's more realistic that Romney, if he wins, will squeak by with no more than 300 votes.

(I'll ignore any snark that says the worst case scenario for either candidate is losing all states. I think it's safe to assume that's not going to happen.)

*Something for down the road 10 years or so. Texas is currently polling with only about ten points between Republican and Democrat. If Texas were to come into play for the Democrats in the next couple of election cycles we might see the end of Republicans as a viable party, especially as Democrats make incursions down the Atlantic southern coast.

And that's my introduction to the 2012 Presidential election. Math don't lie.

[_Bond James Bond]

Let's try to keep this thread clear of insults please. Let's focus on electoral college predictions, posting of poll numbers, any relevant turning points in the election and the like. Just the facts to quote Joe Friday. Plenty of other threads where people can discuss the details of politics.

[_Stormy Waters]

There is a website where you can play with the states and change their results. http://www.270towin.com/
It is difficult to come up with a scenario where the Romney can win.

Basically it seems come down to florida. The republicans need it. Here is my guess.

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_p ... ?mapid=jLv

[_MrStakhanovite]

I think there is a chance that MN will swing for Romney, and if he can capture VA, NC, OH and Florida, he can win.

[Guest]

.

[_zeezrom]

Let's try to keep this thread clear of insults please. Let's focus on electoral college predictions, posting of poll numbers, any relevant turning points in the election and the like. Just the facts to quote Joe Friday. Plenty of other threads where people can discuss the details of politics.

Obama-care ruined the world! Lame! I want to own a concealed weapon and lower the taxes, dammit! Obama's wife doesn't wear sleeves, dammit!

Just kidding. Sigh... I'm so funny.

[_Bond James Bond]

Thanks for your analysis Bond. Very insightful.

Here is a website that I usually follow pretty closely as it gets closer to November. Most of the data on it right now is old. Once the polls start occurring more frequently it's a good resource.

http://electoral-vote.com

Thanks!

Hopefully electoralvote.com will get going again soon. It's my drug starting around September 1st for poll coverage (although Daily Kos Elections has a very comprehensive election coverage as well). I also follow 270towin.com (mentioned above) to project maps and really enjoyed Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight.com during the 2008 cycle (although it's been bought out by the New York Times and subject to page view restrictions).

www.elections.dailykos.com

www.publicpolicypolling.com (One of the more accurate pollsters, much better than Rasmussen).

[_Bond James Bond]

I think there is a chance that MN will swing for Romney, and if he can capture VA, NC, OH and Florida, he can win.

Mr. Stak,

The most recent poll I've seen from Minnesota (taken at the end of January) had Obama up 10 points, 51-41. I think it's more likely that Iowa will flip than Minnesota on your map which would still lead to a Romney victory (I think).

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main ... eyond.html

Edit: You have Colorado going Republican too which would mean no Iowa or Minnesota required.

[_Bond James Bond]

My Prediction Courtesy of 270towin.com

Romney's easiest path to victory courtesy of 270towin.com

[_Morley]

My favorite political analysis website is http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/.

Nate Silver really has his act together, doing meta-analysis of polling data. Unfortunately the NYTimes cuts you off after ten hits a month to their site (which lasts me three to five days and is another story that I'm really not at all irritated about--no really I don't mind at all, grrr).