It appears you are also essentially predicting re-election. Unless I added wrong, you have Obama one vote shy of clinching it. Therefore, all he will need is one of the four that you put in the "don't know" category. Romney must win them all.
Here is Brackite's map as of his last projected post (I took the pleasure of doing it for him):
This is one path that could lead to the doomsday 269-269 tie if Romney were to take the remaining four states.
Whatever appears to be against the Book of Mormon is going to be overturned at some time in the future. So we can be pretty open minded.-charity 3/7/07
MASH quotes I peeked in the back [of the Bible] Frank, the Devil did it. I avoid church religiously. This isn't one of my sermons, I expect you to listen.
A small primer about watching multiple polls from a state. Today they released three polls today. The national tracking poll which they show Romney 50-43 I'll set aside. But look at these polls from Wisconsin:
The reason I bring this up is that these polls ignore the reality of voting. Obama is up 4, but the Democratic Senate candidate is down 11. Now I won't say that voters won't split their candidates (See the Democratic Senator from West Virginia who is up by comical splits like 74-22 over his Republican challenger), but most "low information" voters are going to vote party line. If they hate Obama they're going to go down the line and vote Republican. If they are pro-Obama they're probably going to vote party line for Democrats. Especially in a Presidential election. So pay attention to the Presidential poll more anything.
The Republican is probably ahead, 11 points is hard to ignore, but it's probably much closer than 50-39. Again polls this far out we probably should all take cautiously. Pro Obama polls too since Romney will surge when people are paying 4$ for gas this summer. So why are we talking about this again?
Whatever appears to be against the Book of Mormon is going to be overturned at some time in the future. So we can be pretty open minded.-charity 3/7/07
MASH quotes I peeked in the back [of the Bible] Frank, the Devil did it. I avoid church religiously. This isn't one of my sermons, I expect you to listen.
Bond, It's Wisconsin, so you also have to factor in how much they dislike Scott Wanker, and whether that affects party voting. In that specific case, passions related to their governor might run hotter than feelings about the president.
"The DNA of fictional populations appears to be the most susceptible to extinction." - Simon Southerton
It's actually the exact opposite. Obama always outperforms a general Democratic ballot in Wisconsin. Obama's personal popularity in WI will exceed what other Democrats can expect to get in an election. Call it the Illinois effect. This is consistent with the polling going back to 2008 and not a surprise. Obama will have a coattail effect, but he'll get crossover votes other Democrats won't.
Regarding Baldwin vs. Thompson, Tommy Thompson is one of the most recognized names in state politics. He was a fairly popular 3 term governor. Baldwin, on the other hand, is mostly known in her congressional district (mine). Since the campaign hasn't really kicked off yet, that's driving the major disparity. It explains why Baldwin is more or less tied with the more obscure Republican candidates. Beyond that, Baldwin is quite liberal. She's an open lesbian. She's not the most broadly appealing candidate the Democrats could forward. That being said, Rasmussen's samples tend to lean more Republican than the actual population does. As a rule of thumb, you can subtract ~2 points from the Republican and give it to the Democrat to get a more accurate number. In the case of Thompson vs. Baldwin 48-41 probably is about right.
It appears you are also essentially predicting re-election. Unless I added wrong, you have Obama one vote shy of clinching it. Therefore, all he will need is one of the four that you put in the "don't know" category. Romney must win them all.
Here is Brackite's map as of his last projected post (I took the pleasure of doing it for him):
And Speaking about North Carolina, Senator John McCain ended up winning seven of the State’s 13 congressional districts in 2008 there. However, Because Barack Obama barely ended up getting the most popular votes in North Carolina, He ended up getting all of the electoral votes from that State. The only two States that don't have their electoral voting system set up that way are Maine and Nebraska. I really wish that the other States would set up their electoral voting system up the way that Maine and Nebraska has it.
"And I've said it before, you want to know what Joseph Smith looked like in Nauvoo, just look at Trump." - Fence Sitter
And Speaking about North Carolina, Senator John McCain ended up winning seven of the State’s 13 congressional districts in 2008 there. However, Because Barack Obama barely ended up getting the most popular votes in North Carolina, He ended up getting all of the electoral votes from that State. The only two States that don't have their electoral voting system set up that way are Maine and Nebraska. I really wish that the other States would set up their electoral voting system up the way that Maine and Nebraska has it.
I think it would be a much more interesting election if electoral votes were given per Congressional district than per state. I'm not sure if we would have a more widespread campaign with candidates going after dozens of Congressional district votes or if the campaign would grow even more focused to a few key electoral districts. I'd hope for the former but suspect the latter in this era of micro-polling and extreme information tracking.
Whatever appears to be against the Book of Mormon is going to be overturned at some time in the future. So we can be pretty open minded.-charity 3/7/07
MASH quotes I peeked in the back [of the Bible] Frank, the Devil did it. I avoid church religiously. This isn't one of my sermons, I expect you to listen.
Romney ahead of Obama in Oklahoma 62-27. Tossup state?
In more interesting news polls came out today from the U. of Vanderbilt and the U. of Texas for the respective states of Tennessee and Texas. I think both states are Romney but Tennessee polled Romney 47-40 and Texas 46-38. For what it's worth those numbers are much closer than what McCain won by.
McCain in 2008: Tennessee 57-42 Texas 55-44
Whatever appears to be against the Book of Mormon is going to be overturned at some time in the future. So we can be pretty open minded.-charity 3/7/07
MASH quotes I peeked in the back [of the Bible] Frank, the Devil did it. I avoid church religiously. This isn't one of my sermons, I expect you to listen.
Texas's population growth is disproportionately Democrat. Overtime it is becoming gradually less red. Barring some drastic demographic shifts in who votes Democrat, they'll take over Texas within the next 20 years.
EAllusion wrote:Texas's population growth is disproportionately Democrat. Overtime it is becoming gradually less red. Barring some drastic demographic shifts in who votes Democrat, they'll take over Texas within the next 20 years.
My own state of Kentucky is the same way. I recently checked the voter registration and it was (If I recall correctly) 1.6 million to 1.2 million in favor of Democrats with a few hundred thousand independents.
Whatever appears to be against the Book of Mormon is going to be overturned at some time in the future. So we can be pretty open minded.-charity 3/7/07
MASH quotes I peeked in the back [of the Bible] Frank, the Devil did it. I avoid church religiously. This isn't one of my sermons, I expect you to listen.
Whatever appears to be against the Book of Mormon is going to be overturned at some time in the future. So we can be pretty open minded.-charity 3/7/07
MASH quotes I peeked in the back [of the Bible] Frank, the Devil did it. I avoid church religiously. This isn't one of my sermons, I expect you to listen.
