The 2012 Election

[_bcspace]

Texas is it.

Romney needs 79 more delegates to secure the GOP nomination. The next state up is Texas on May 29 with 155 delegates. Thus Romney merely needs 51% of the vote. Or could this be the last Santorum holdout? Doubtful. Evangelical stronghold Kentucky today gave Santorum only 12.5% of the vote.

[_Bond James Bond]

Texas is it.

Romney needs 79 more delegates to secure the GOP nomination. The next state up is Texas on May 29 with 155 delegates. Thus Romney merely needs 51% of the vote. Or could this be the last Santorum holdout? Doubtful. Evangelical stronghold Kentucky today gave Santorum only 12.5% of the vote.

Santorum withdrew a month ago so the fact that Kentucky still gave Santorum 12% should be disconcerting for Romney.

http://www.wlky.com/news/politics/Full- ... index.html

Edit:

Romney took 67% while Paul/Santorum/Gingrich took 28% combined (despite all three having suspended their campaigns) with 6% uncommitted. I wonder how much of a push the Paulites, undeterred that their candidate has quit, will make to influence the party platform at the convention.

by the way a Tea Party backed candidate, Thomas Massie, won the Republican primary in Kentucky's 4th District creating a long shot Democratic pickup behind the strong(ish) candidacy of Bill Adkins. Massie is backed by a 21 year old Texan banking heir. God bless America.

[_MsJack]

Santorum withdrew a month ago so the fact that Kentucky still gave Santorum 12% should be disconcerting for Romney.

How disconcerting should it be for Obama that Kentucky Democrats gave 42% of their vote to "uncommitted," Arkansas Democrats gave 39% of their vote to John Wolfe, and West Virginia Democrats gave 41% of their vote to a convicted felon?

God bless America indeed.

[_Brackite]

Mitt Romney is very likely going to win the State of Florida.

Romney Leads Obama in Key State of Florida, Poll Says:
http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/politi ... poll-says/


I do strongly believe that Mitt Romney will win the State of Florida. However, I don't think that Mitt Romney will be able to win the States of Iowa and Ohio. The Economy of Ohio has benefited somewhat due to the auto bailouts, and that works to Barack Obama’s advantage.

[Guest]

Santorum withdrew a month ago so the fact that Kentucky still gave Santorum 12% should be disconcerting for Romney.

How disconcerting should it be for Obama that Kentucky Democrats gave 42% of their vote to "uncommitted," Arkansas Democrats gave 39% of their vote to John Wolfe, and West Virginia Democrats gave 41% of their vote to a convicted felon?

God bless America indeed.

I wonder if it's more than a little bit of "Operation Hilarious" style shenanigans. Kentucky has more Democrats than Republicans but will go 60-40 for Romney so obviously a few registered Democrats are voting how they would vote in the general election. Racism is alive and well in some parts of America, especially in Appalachia. Kentucky east of Interstate 65 is a completely different world than Kentucky west of I-65 for example.

[_Bond James Bond]

Mitt Romney is very likely going to win the State of Florida.

Romney Leads Obama in Key State of Florida, Poll Says:
http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/politi ... poll-says/


I do strongly believe that Mitt Romney will win the State of Florida. However, I don't think that Mitt Romney will be able to win the States of Iowa and Ohio. The Economy of Ohio has benefited somewhat due to the auto bailouts, and that works to Barack Obama’s advantage.

It's hard to say. Those states that are true tossups might come down to the last couple of news cycles. Florida is a positive for Obama but a must win for Romney. Obama has several paths to victory without Florida.

[_EAllusion]

As pointed out in the article, that poll has some goofy numbers coming out of it that suggest something non-representative happened in the methodology.

Romney should be considered a mild favorite to win Florida, though.

[_Bond James Bond]

Polling today:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/05/2 ... howAll=yes

Nationally:
Obama 46-46 (Gallup)
Obama 46-45 (Ras)

Arizona Romney 50-43
Florida Romney 47-41
Pennsylvania Obama 47-41
Wisconsin Obama 49-43
Vermont Obama 59-28

[_Drifting]

Has Obama made a mistake in allowing negative campaigning?

[_Bond James Bond]

Has Obama made a mistake in allowing negative campaigning?

I don't think so Drifting. I do think that if you're going to go negative you better also do some positive stuff. Giving people a reason to vote for you is as important as giving people a reason to vote against the other guy.