Are Republicans opportunistic liars, or just stupid?

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_Analytics
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Re: Are Republicans opportunistic liars, or just stupid?

Post by _Analytics »

Droopy wrote:All of which is irrelevant, because the fact of the matter is that consumer demand does not drive the economy. Production drives the economy - work, productive economic activity, drives and creates the conditions of job opportunity, economic growth, and prosperity.


Production only drives the economy to the extent that people want to buy things that are produced. In fact, if something is produced for which there is absolutely no demand, it’s hard to argue that anything was produced at all. Businesses make products (and money) when there is demand for the products and services they offer.

I happen to know somebody who is a small business owner. He owns a steel foundry that makes industrial castings, typically for the mining and drilling industries. He happens to be ultra-conservative and has an irrational fear of Obama, and thinks America is going to hell in a hand-basket. He would totally agree with your narrative that the weakness in the economy is because of the liberals. You’d like him.

Despite the fact that he ascribes to the narrative that businesses aren’t hiring because they are afraid of the government, he is hiring and is expanding his business like crazy. Why, you might ask? Because of demand. Regardless of what he thinks about Obama, there is a huge demand for oil, natural gas, and stuff people extract from mines. Because of that demand, industry is drilling and digging like crazy. And because they are engaging in those activities, there is a demand for the castings my acquaintance produces. Because of that demand, he is expanding his business; since his customers purchase castings as fast as he can pour them, he’s doing everything he possibly can to make more and more castings, faster and faster.

If there was a bigger demand for homes, builders would build more homes. If there was a bigger demand for new cars, the auto industry would being doing everything in their power to produce more cars. The same goes for everything.

The real problem with the economy is that people with money are purchasing everything they want and are saving the rest. However, the savings isn’t balanced with the need for capital and the desire of credit-worthy people to borrow. People want jobs to produce things, but the folks with the money don't want to spend it.
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_ajax18
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Re: Are Republicans opportunistic liars, or just stupid?

Post by _ajax18 »

People want jobs to produce things, but the folks with the money don't want to spend it.


How many of these wealthy people are there and how much of the wealth do they control?

Do you see the 1% as the result of capitalism over time, or has it always been there since the country was conquered? I don't think capitalism has to mean one person controls all the capital and has an instant monopoly on the business. Why couldn't we have a country of small businessmen competing against each other? I know there are some natural monopolies like phone service, but it doesn't have to be that way for every industry.
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Re: Are Republicans opportunistic liars, or just stupid?

Post by _Kevin Graham »

The reason corporations have not been hiring in the present economic environment is because of vast tax and regulatory uncertainty Obama has introduced into the American economy. No one knows what government might do next.

That is an ad hoc excuse you guys came up with to divert attention away from the fact that your pet theory has been shattered. You have for years claimed that the best formula to guarantee increased employment is to cut their taxes further. Well taxes are ridiculously low, and corporations aren't doing what you said they'd do. So instead of accepting the empirical data proving your Right Wing theory is bogus, you have to shuffle your argument around and rely on this nonsense about how corporations are too afraid and uncertain about what government is going to do. What utter horse crap. You have nothing to back up this claim. Nothing.
Obamacare has introduced critical uncertainties and economic hazard as well, and hiring won't return until Obama is long gone, his policies repealed, and the economy (the American people) are allowed to invest, risk, work, and prosper in a much freer, open economic environment.

Now you are going back to your state of ignorance on what does and doesn't propel an increase in employment. Krose and I have explained it to you as if you were a seventh grader but it still seems we're over shooting you. Even if what you say about Obamacare is true - and it most certainly isn't- any fear about it is the result of Right Wing propaganda and baseless assumptions, not empirical data. Besides, low taxes and increased employment is something we saw long before Obama was elected. Try again.
If you are running a private K-12, high school, or college, and you find your enrollment is going to go up in the coming year, and you find that you need more teachers, you are then going - if you wish to actually serve your new students properly - to hire new teachers.

No kidding.
If, however, taxes have gone up to the point that your bottom line -your ability to maintain what you already have at a profit that allows you to continue operations and pay your professors and staff what the market will bear (which you must do to attract and keep the best talent available), you are going to have to make cuts to your operations. Where? That's right, the new professors and new classes.

No idiot, that isn't what happens, as explained to you by Krose. Why are you even talking about this stuff as if you have any real life experience with it? You're pretending to be an expert on this issue because you read mises articles all day.
If you notice that Kevin's economic analysis frequently makes no rational sense at all, and is in many cases logically counter-intuitive, you're correct.

It makes perfect sense if you understand economics. Unfortunately, you don't. Your understanding of economics comes from the boilerplate serving you constantly feed yourself from the outdated and well discredited Hayek influenced Think Tank you so adore.
Which is what I've delineated above. Now, what happens if taxes rise substantially in the interim and cut deeply into the profit making potential of running the school as an entity? You're school needs to trim staff and and other overhead. What goes first?

In your apocalyptical scenario where my taxes were 95% of my income, which is nothing Obama has ever entertained mind you, the first things to go would be those things listed on my personal expenditures. It certainly won't have any effect on business expenditures since my business is a source of income in and of itself. Like krose said, why in the world would I start firing teachers who were making me money? If my tax rate is 1% or 99%, it doesn't change the fact that my employers are a source of income. You seem to think employees are some act of charity that employers engage in just for the heck of it and so when their taxes increase, they can somehow increase their profits by firing them. That's just idiotic.
All of which is irrelevant, because the fact of the matter is that consumer demand does not drive the economy. Production drives the economy - work, productive economic activity, drives and creates the conditions of job opportunity, economic growth, and prosperity.

This is such a bass ackwards view of the economy it is no wonder you've never been a successful capitalist. So according to Loran Blood, it doesn't matter whether or not consumers have money to spend. What matters is that new products get produced. In yoru view, by producing new goods and services, suddenly, miraculously, consumers will find money appearing in their bank accounts so they can purchase them. After all, without money to spend, those products will just sit on the shelves. In my case, so long as I produce newer methods of learning English (videos, tapes, books, etc)people will flock to my school in droves. Whether they have money to pay for such services seems to be a non issue for you. That's just dumb.
Consumer demand is completely dependent upon production and its creation of new net wealth and new net job opportunity, and the incentives that drive production are those centered in the profit motive and rational self interest.

This makes no sense. As a consumer, my demand has nothing to do with whether or not some entreprenuer decides to create a widget. Creating a widget and investing a lot of money into is production will certainly create job opportunities and wealth, but these things are temporary and only successful if the product manages to sell. And that is determined by consumer demand. If there is no demand for widgets, the product will die on the vine like so many others have as well. You seem to think that by simply creating a new product, consumers are forced to buy it simply because a lot of money was put into it and temporary jobs were created. You say the incentive that drives production is the profit motive, which is true. But the key element that completely escapes you is the fact that profit is determined by how successful that product sells, which brings us back to consumer demand. Products are only going to be successful if consumers buy them.

And again, production will not become profitable unless consumers have money to spend in the first place. And if you really believe production is not determined by an established trend in consumer demand then you're even more ignorant about basic marketing principles than I thought. Do you really think the success of Starbucks wasn't based on studies showing the trend of consumer habits and the profits of impulse buys? Very few businesses are successful when they try to create a demand that isn't already there. Anyone interested in buying a franchise, for example, will investigate the trend in consumer spending. No serious person is expecting to make it rich by coming up with their own "widget" and expecting people to buy it just because "production drives consumer demand." Yeah, right. Go see how well that works for you Droops. Just make sure you don't quite your day job.

The reason employment spikes just before the holiday season is because businesses anticipate a spike in consumer demand. Hello?

Secondly, government stimulus creates all of its consumer demand only at the cost of economic activity in other sectors of the economy and by targeting such stimulus at specific constituencies (such as unionized teachers, state government employees, heavily unionized private sector manufacturing, and artificially generated industries such as the "green" energy sector, which is where the vast majority of both stimulus packages went - it was little more than a political slush fund)

That's idiotic blather. Stimulus drives the economy for reasons already explained. When the lower classes have money, that money goes straight back into the economy in all areas of consumer demand. By cutting energy costs, you effectively put more money back into the pockets of those who pay a monthly electric/gas bill. That money is then put back into things that every day middle-class folks purchase when they have the money to do so (more groceries, road trips, merchandise, etc).
Stimulus spending of this kind, and especially at the fantastic levels at which the Obama administration has pursued them, are wildly inflationary. Creating and handing out money to various sectors of the economy without a corresponding increase in goods and services within that economy creates broad based general price inflation - the very kind of government created debasement of the currency that has come to define the monetary policies of most Western governments in the 20th century.

Except all that drivel has been proved wrong. Inflation has not been the result of the stimulus. Between 2005-2008 inflation averaged around 4-5% whereas it has averaged between 1-3% since the stimulus.
Keynesianism has been discredited for nearly a century both as a matter of theory and repeated historical experience.

Actually the exact opposite is true, but for thsoe who confine themselves to Libertarian anti-government "Think Tank" input, it is hardly surprising you'd think this. You're not really in touch with the real world Droopy. You've convinced yourself the sky is red and squares are round. What really pisses you off is the fact that everything you've come to hate has been shown to be what really works. And all the rhetoric and use of obscure words isn't going to change that fact. You're not going to be able to turn a century of economic history on its head just because you don't like what it has proven.
_EAllusion
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Re: Are Republicans opportunistic liars, or just stupid?

Post by _EAllusion »

krose wrote:
Droopy wrote:... fundamental praxological problem...

What is this word, praxological, that you continue to use?

Praxeology is a term used a lot in Austrian economics, which overlaps with some of the far right sources Droopy likes to read. It involves logically deducing economic behavior from axioms. The result is him awkwardly trying to shoehorn variations of the term it into posts here.
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Re: Are Republicans opportunistic liars, or just stupid?

Post by _Bond James Bond »

Analytics wrote:Production only drives the economy to the extent that people want to buy things that are produced. In fact, if something is produced for which there is absolutely no demand, it’s hard to argue that anything was produced at all. Businesses make products (and money) when there is demand for the products and services they offer.


Droopy learned this the hard way, when people stopped playing paintball because of the recession as well as the rise of "Airsoft" guns.
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Re: Are Republicans opportunistic liars, or just stupid?

Post by _Kevin Graham »

The lies:

“What the President is proposing is therefore a massive tax increase on job creators and on small business. Small businesses are overwhelmingly being taxed not at a corporate rate, but at the individual tax rate. So successful small businesses will see their taxes go up dramatically and that will kill jobs.”

— Former governor Mitt Romney, “The John Fredericks Show,” July 9, 2012

“President Obama’s response to even more bad economic news is a massive tax increase. It just proves again that the President doesn’t have a clue how to get America working again and help the middle class. The President’s latest bad idea is to raise taxes on families, job creators, and small businesses. ”

— Romney campaign spokesperson Andrea Saul, statement, July 9, 2012


The Facts:

GOP leaders are misleading the public with claims that a tax hike on incomes above $250,000 will hurt small businesses, Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) charged Tuesday.

Hoyer, the Democratic whip, noted that only about 3 percent of small business owners would be affected if the Bush-era tax rates are allowed to expire on the wealthiest Americans.

He argued that similar GOP warnings under President Clinton proved false, and he accused Republicans of spinning the numbers to protect their wealthiest supporters.
“Very frankly, history shows that to be a fallacious argument,” Hoyer said. “That was the argument they made in 1993, that we were going to destroy the economy, that deficits were going to explode, that unemployment would skyrocket and that the stock market would tank.

“They were dead, flat wrong. Exactly the opposite happened. The stock market went up 226 percent, [and] we balanced the budget for four years in a row,” he added. “They continue, however, unabashedly and undeterred in making an argument which has been proven to be dead, flat wrong.”

At issue is how to approach the Bush-era tax rates, which are scheduled to go up for all incomes in January. In a direct challenge to Republicans, who want to extend the lower rates for everyone, President Obama on Monday doubled down on his plan to allow taxes to go up on families with annual taxable income above $250,000 and on individuals with taxable income above $200,000.

Behind House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio), Republicans have warned that a tax hike on the wealthiest people would cripple small businesses at a time when the economy needs them hiring new workers. GOP leaders wasted no time this week bashing the president for his proposal.

“Here we have a situation where the economy is stalled and there is a lessening of confidence each and every day. What does the president do? He doubles down on his own failed policies,” House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.) said Tuesday during a press conference in the Capitol. “How does it make sense for anybody to call for taxing small-business owners when we are looking to create jobs?”

The Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) has estimated the number of high-income earners – those earning more than $250,000 – who file as a small business is roughly 3 percent.

Democrats want to stage two separate votes: one to extend the Bush-era tax rates on lower incomes and another to extend the rate on higher incomes. Republicans have rejected that plan, believing it would make it difficult to extend current tax rates for wealthier households.

Consequentially, Democrats have charged Republicans with holding the lower-income tax breaks “hostage” to an extended cut for the wealthiest Americans, an accusation Hoyer amplified Tuesday.

“The Republicans agree that the people [earning] under [$]250,000 shouldn't get a tax increase. Democrats agree. The president agrees,” Hoyer said. “We ought to take 'yes' for an answer on that issue.”

Republicans argue Obama is proposing a tax increase on higher-income households.

=================================

I should add that the tax increase is marginal, meaning it only taxes the amount of money earned above $250,000, which makes that 3% figure much smaller than it really is. This notion that raising taxes back to what they were during the Clinton years is going to destroy employment opportunities, is idiotic on its face and anyone propagating such stupidity should be slapped in the face.
_Analytics
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Re: Are Republicans opportunistic liars, or just stupid?

Post by _Analytics »

ajax18 wrote:
People want jobs to produce things, but the folks with the money don't want to spend it.


How many of these wealthy people are there and how much of the wealth do they control?

Do you see the 1% as the result of capitalism over time, or has it always been there since the country was conquered? I don't think capitalism has to mean one person controls all the capital and has an instant monopoly on the business. Why couldn't we have a country of small businessmen competing against each other? I know there are some natural monopolies like phone service, but it doesn't have to be that way for every industry.

Roughly, the top 1 million households own about 40% of the wealth. The next 19 million own another 53% of it. The 80 million on the bottom own the remaining 7%.

The concentration of wealth is definitely an effect of Capitalism over time. It's just like the game Monopoly. Everybody starts equally, but because of a little skill and a lot of luck, some people start to accumulate assets, and the more assets they accumulate the faster they accumulate more.

There is nothing wrong with this until it gets to the point where the super-rich can't figure out productive ways to spend or invest their money. When that happens, money flows into their coffers faster than it flows out. That's what causes unemployment.
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_Droopy
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Re: Are Republicans opportunistic liars, or just stupid?

Post by _Droopy »

Production only drives the economy to the extent that people want to buy things that are produced.


If they don't, then that which is produced will no longer be produced, and that which people do want to buy will continue to be produced. But it is production that creates demand, and it is production - the creation of wealth - that expands the size of the economy. True, that which is produced must have a market, but buying products - spending money - cannot be understood to "drive" or ground economic growth and prosperity. The reason should be obvious: all the money used by consumers to buy x has itself been generated by other productive economic activity, such as producing y, creating and maintaining m which produces y, creating p which is used in the manufacture of x, and on and on. While without buying there is no production, without production there is neither buying nor anything to buy.

Supply - created wealth - drives economic growth, not demand. The money you use to buy anything you want does itself not exist without your own participation in production - other production, which supports and is made possible by other production, which is made possible by other production, and on ad infinitum.

In fact, if something is produced for which there is absolutely no demand, it’s hard to argue that anything was produced at all.


Quite true, but anyone producing something for which no demand materializes will soon not be producing at all. The market will filter that producer out of the economy.

Businesses make products (and money) when there is demand for the products and services they offer.


This is only true with regard to established products. The economy grows primarily by the introduction of new products/services for which no demand exists at present, but which is generated and stimulated by the emergence of the new products/services. A growing economy is not maintained by a static production of nothing more than what has already been produced before.

He happens to be ultra-conservative and has an irrational fear of Obama,


Deep fear of Obama is wholly justified by both his policies and his intellectual and political background.
and thinks America is going to hell in a hand-basket.


Yes, it is, and has been since the 1930s. Obama is heir to a historic confluence of political and cultural factors that have allowed him to attempt to put the final nails in the coffin of classical liberalism and the Western liberal sociocultural tradition that emerged in living form in 1789.

He would totally agree with your narrative that the weakness in the economy is because of the liberals. You’d like him.


It is not "liberals" who are attempting to destroy the economy and the social/moral fabric of American society (a project which began in earnest in teh late sixties), but leftists. It is progressivism that is the juggernaut of destruction seeking to end free market economic relations, property rights, Judeo-Christian social/moral norms and constraints, limited government by the consent of the governed, natural rights, and the rule of law.

Despite the fact that he ascribes to the narrative that businesses aren’t hiring because they are afraid of the government, he is hiring and is expanding his business like crazy. Why, you might ask? Because of demand. Regardless of what he thinks about Obama, there is a huge demand for oil, natural gas, and stuff people extract from mines. Because of that demand, industry is drilling and digging like crazy. And because they are engaging in those activities, there is a demand for the castings my acquaintance produces. Because of that demand, he is expanding his business; since his customers purchase castings as fast as he can pour them, he’s doing everything he possibly can to make more and more castings, faster and faster.


Which is why the economy is collapsing, correct? Unique, individual circumstances can always be deployed in an attempt to move from the particular to the general without logical connection or the larger empirical picture (and we know what that is).

If there was a bigger demand for homes, builders would build more homes. If there was a bigger demand for new cars, the auto industry would being doing everything in their power to produce more cars. The same goes for everything.


What creates the demand for cars? The production of cars. Who are the producers of cars? Consumers. What are consumers? Producers. Production - the creation of new, net wealth - is the central organizing principle of economic growth, and it is only in economic growth that large scale prosperity resides and relative affluence among all classes is made possible. In a sense, spending money is incidental to production. If you don't by my product, I go out of business, but if I (and countless others) do not produce products and generate new forms of wealth, there is nothing to spend money on. There is also no money to spend, as this medium of exchange is the mediating form of property between one form of production and another.

The real problem with the economy is that people with money are purchasing everything they want and are saving the rest. However, the savings isn’t balanced with the need for capital and the desire of credit-worthy people to borrow. People want jobs to produce things, but the folks with the money don't want to spend it.


This thinking is exactly how the Great Depression was created by government out of a severe recession that should have been over in a few years. Business is not going to invest again, nor are people going to spend money (people who are out of work and on food stamps save, they do not spend, unless massive general price inflation incentivizes such spending of limited funds)until Obama is gone, because the chaotic regulatory and tax burden he has created, along with a crippling national debt and a alarmingly devaluing currency, have created a toxic economic environment.

Business now faces among the highest corporate tax rates in the industrialized world, confiscatory personal income tax rates, substantial dividend taxes and capital gains taxes (which disincentivize savings and investment and encourage private spending in lieu of the generation of new economic activity), massive estate taxes with discourage the passing on of productive wealth to heirs, and numerous layers of suffocating taxation throughout virtually every area of the economy, including crippling business regulations that are also a tax on work, savings, investment, and risk.

The EPA's onrushing pseuodoscientific endangerment ruling regarding CO2 has the potential to utterly wreck the economy quite without reference to Obama's budgets, wild fiat money creation and spending, Obamacare (containing at least 21 new tax hikes) and produce really substantial and obvious decreases in living standards.

Nothing about Obama's assault on free market economic relations, achievement, success, property rights, individual self sufficiency and economic independence, and his fevered egalitarian redistributionist ideology, is accidental, or a manifestation of witless stupidity. This is, in essence, the Cloward/Piven/Alinsky model of socialist revolution through the overwhelming and pressuring of the system until it grinds to a halt and collapses.

Keynes himself would not, I think, have approved of his being pressed into the service of Marx.
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_Droopy
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Re: Are Republicans opportunistic liars, or just stupid?

Post by _Droopy »

Praxeology is a term used a lot in Austrian economics, which overlaps with some of the far right sources Droopy likes to read. It involves logically deducing economic behavior from axioms. The result is him awkwardly trying to shoehorn variations of the term it into posts here.



I'm not going to bother trying to educate yet another economic illiterate in here, Delusion. Please don't bother with the pose.
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Re: Are Republicans opportunistic liars, or just stupid?

Post by _Doctor Scratch »

Droopy wrote:That's called rational self interest, otherwise known as working for a living.


I can comment further on the many problems with you saying this, if you like, Droopy.
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