Romney rises despite Obama's $100 million in false ads

[_bcspace]

Weeks of vicious attacks by the Obama campaign assailing Mitt Romney’s character and making questionable charges about his stewardship of Bain Capital have yielded the following result: the latest national poll, released by the New York Times, shows Romney with a slight edge.

With little record to run on, an economy mired in slow growth, and unemployment stuck above eight percent, the Obama team must face the possibility that it is unloading some of its only rhetorical ammunition without result. And after burning through $100 million of his money on campaign ads, Obama has failed to establish a lead over his rival.

The poll suggests an extraordinarily dangerous possibility for the Obama campaign: that concerns about the dismal economy Trump all other issues and provide Romney with a teflon coating with which he can deflect the bullets of the grinding Obama attack machine.

.....................

Meanwhile, Obama’s overall approval rating, which had been flirting with a rise above the crucial 50 percent barrier, stands currently at 46 percent, according to the daily Gallup tracking poll. The New York Times puts Obama’s approval at 44 percent.

The barrage against Romney from the Obama campaign has included charges – widely questioned by independent observers – that he presided over the offshoring of jobs as head of Bain Capital, as well as suggestions that he may have cheated on his taxes.

The unrelenting attacks by Obama may also be having a subtler deleterious effect on his campaign.

The president is having trouble meeting his fundraising goals and must log countless miles traversing the country to try to fill his coffers. The financial shortfall is reflective of the depleted enthusiasm for Obama among his supporters, who have watched as he has unintentionally rebranded himself from the 2008 candidate of hope and change into a crude politician willing to do whatever it takes to ensure his political survival.

http://www.whitehousedossier.com/2012/07/19/obamas-remorseless-attacks-effect/

Looks like the Obama campaign is going to bleed out.

[_Kevin Graham]

Worthless.

Even Republican pundits fear Romney's refusal to show if tax returns is going to cause serious problems for him. There is simply no way he can keep hiding this information by the time they hold the RNC. They can't allow that and this issue isn't going to just go away.

And he has n valid excuse for hiding them either. He was the same guy who attacked Kennedy for not revealing his tax returns. The only reason has to be he is hiding something. It is simple as that. And right now people are holding out hope that this is much ado about nothing, but the longer this drags out the guiltier he looks.

And Obama had no "false ads." They told the truth.

Where is EA when you need him. He's the expert on polling data and its significance throughout an election year.

[_Brackite]

...

With little record to run on, an economy mired in slow growth, and unemployment stuck above eight percent, the Obama team must face the possibility that it is unloading some of its only rhetorical ammunition without result. And after burning through $100 million of his money on campaign ads, Obama has failed to establish a lead over his rival.

...

During these first six months of Barack Obama’s fourth year in office, the average unemployment rate is at 8.2%. Now let us compare that with Ronald Reagan’s and Bill Clinton’s first six months of their fourth year in office.
During the first six months of Ronald Reagan’s fourth year in office, the average unemployment rate was at 7.66%. Ronald Reagan ended up winning in a landslide in his re-election bid.
During the first six months of Bill Clinton’s fourth year in office, the average unemployment rate was at 5.52%. Bill Clinton ended up easily winning his re-election bid.
Barack Obama doesn't have that much of an economy record to run on. I believe that this Presidential election is going to be very close.

[_EAllusion]

The polling probably is slightly overestimating Obama's support right now. There also a possibility that Obama is going to be significantly outspent due to changes in campaign finance law. Prediction models have formulas that take into account an incumbency advantage (or disadvantage as it were depending on circumstances.) One natural piece of that is the fact that incumbents tend to be much better financed. It is unclear how much of that matters, so that's going to throw off modeling to an unknown degree. Finally, there's been widespread voter suppression laws put in place by Republicans in a variety of states meant to drive down Democrat voter turnout. Courts have blocked them piecemeal, and it's really a total mystery how much of an impact this is going to have. Taking this all into account, I'd consider the 65/35 Obama advantage prediction models are coming up with to be closer to 50/50.

[_Brackite]

The Unemployment rate for the Nation is at 8.2%.
Here are the Unemployment rates for the swing States:

NEW HAMPSHIRE - 5.1%
PENNSYLVANIA - 7.5%
OHIO - 7.2%
VIRGINIA - 5.7%
NORTH CAROLINA - 9.4%
FLORIDA - 8.6%
WISCONSIN - 7.0%
IOWA - 5.2%
COLORADO - 8.2%
NEVADA - 11.6%


Link: http://www.bls.gov/web/laus/laumstrk.htm


The average Unemployment rate among the swing States is at 7.55%.

[_EAllusion]

Full employment is usually defined as 5% unemployment. Iowa and New Hampshire basically are fully employed. Go figure.

[_palerobber]

the Obama camp has scored a significant strategic victory in making Bain toxic through these ad buys.

now as we head into the homestretch Romney can't run on his record at Bain, he's certainly not going to run on his (liberal) record in Massachusetts, so he's basically got nothing to sell to the American people and he's facing an incumbent with a big advantage over him in net favorability rating.

Romney's only hope is for the Euro debt crisis to blow up.

[_palerobber]

The Unemployment rate for the Nation is at 8.2%.
Here are the Unemployment rates for the swing States:

NEW HAMPSHIRE - 5.1%
PENNSYLVANIA - 7.5%
OHIO - 7.2%
VIRGINIA - 5.7%
NORTH CAROLINA - 9.4%
FLORIDA - 8.6%
WISCONSIN - 7.0%
IOWA - 5.2%
COLORADO - 8.2%
NEVADA - 11.6%


Link: http://www.bls.gov/web/laus/laumstrk.htm


The average Unemployment rate among the swing States is at 7.55%.

so why do you think Romney continues to trail in every single one of those states, except NC where his lead is razor thin?
(RCP map based on current poll composites)

[_krose]

now as we head into the homestretch Romney can't run on his record at Bain, he's certainly not going to run on his (liberal) record in Massachusetts, so he's basically got nothing to sell to the American people and he's facing an incumbent with a big advantage over him in net favorability rating.

That's why he has jumped on the bogus "build that" phrase and centered his campaign around it.

As Jon Stewart said last night, if you base your entire argument on a minor grammatical slip-up, you're admitting you don't have anything legitimate to offer.

[_moksha]

Obama's false ads. You know, that Universe sounds much like our own except for the role reversals.