The 2012 Election

[_Bond James Bond]

Quinnipiac polling today:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-an ... aseID=1789

Ohio: Obama 50-44
Florida: Obama 49-46
Wisconsin: Obama 49-47

If there's a Ryan bump it's tiny (although it might be more in his home state). But if those numbers hold up Obama is winning the election.

[_Bond James Bond]

I also cannot laud enough the nightly polling recap from Daily Kos. It's usually posted around 11 P.M. Eastern time and posts pretty much every available poll out there, (good, bad, and ugly).

Most recent:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/08/2 ... arse-polls

It gave me a lol the other day when a poll from Florida had Obama losing 54-40 to Romney. If you poll enthusiasts want to see what not to do in a poll, look at the internals of this (below).

http://www.scribd.com/doc/103331632/FMW ... 6szas5ioh5

[_Bond James Bond]

Time continues to drip! We're around 70 days away. I've decided to update my projections. I used a asterisk in front of states I've added to totals. Since Paul Ryan seems to have provided a small bounce in his home state I'm going to move Wisconsin to "toss-up" status. I still think it will go Democrat but like to be consistent with conglomerated polling. I probably am ready to move Missouri to the Republican column and Nevada to the Democratic column but for now I'll leave things open, at least until the Republican convention plays out.

Safe Obama: 237
California-55 (2008 - Obama)
New York-29 (2008 - Obama)
Illinois-20 (2008 - Obama's home state)
Washington-12 (2008 - Obama)
Oregon-7 (2008 - Obama)
Massachusetts-11 (2008 - Obama)
New Jersey-14 (2008 - Obama)
Hawaii-4 (2008 - Obama)
Minnesota-10 (2008 - Obama)
Maryland-10 (2008 - Obama)
Michigan-16 (2008 - Obama)
New Mexico-5 (2008 - Obama)
Maine-4 (2008 - Obama)
Delaware-3 (2008 - Obama)
Connecticut-4 (2008 - Obama)
Vermont-3 (2008 - Obama)
Rhode Island-3 (2008 - Obama)
DC-3 (2008 - Obama)
Pennsylvania-20 (Obama-2008)

Safe Romney: 181
Texas-38 (2008 - McCain)
Tennessee-11 (2008- McCain)
Kentucky-8 (2008 - McCain)
Louisiana-8 (2008 - McCain)
Alabama-9 (2008 - McCain)
Mississippi-6 (2008 - McCain)
Alaska-3 (2008 - McCain)
Oklahoma-7 (2008 - McCain)
Kansas-6 (2008 - McCain)
Nebraska-5 (2008 - McCain)
North Dakota-3 (2008 - McCain)
South Dakota-3 (2008 - McCain)
Montana-3 (2008 - McCain)
Wyoming-3 (2008 - McCain)
Utah-6 (2008 - McCain)
Idaho-4 (2008 - McCain)
Georgia-16 (2008 - McCain)
West Virginia-5 (2008 - McCain)
South Carolina-9 (2008 - McCain)
Arizona-11 (2008-McCain)
Indiana-11 (Obama-2008)

Tossup: 120
Florida-29 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
Ohio-18 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
Colorado- 9 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
Nevada-6 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
Missouri-10 (Romney) (McCain-2008)
New Hampshire-4 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
Iowa-6 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
North Carolina-15 (Romney) (Obama-2008)
Virginia-13 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
*Wisconsin-10 (Obama) (2008 - Obama)

I think the true tossups of this election will be Florida, Ohio, Colorado, Iowa, and Virginia. I think the rest will break the way I have them going currently, although Iowa might slide Republican. Obama can afford to lose Iowa but his firewall must be Ohio and Virginia. For Romney it's game over if he doesn't get Florida.

[_Bond James Bond]

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/08/2 ... nnsylvania

Republican SuperPACs are already beginning to stop ad buys in Pennsylvania where two separate polls have shown Obama +9.

[_EAllusion]

Money is going to pour into Ohio advertizing like none other. Which, ironically, should be a nice jolt to the local economy.

[_Brackite]

Romney Gets No Bounce From Last Week's GOP Convention:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/157262/romne ... ntion.aspx

[_krose]

Money is going to pour into Ohio advertizing like none other. Which, ironically, should be a nice jolt to the local economy.

Does all that advertising really help the local economy? The money only goes to the broadcasting companies, for advertising space they would have had to sell to someone else anyway. And unless they are jacking up the rates, I don't see much additional money even for them. Direct mailings do pump money into the Postal Service.

In fact, several local businesses in Denver are now complaining that their sales are being badly hurt because they can't buy any advertising on TV and radio stations.

[_Bond James Bond]

We'll wait for results but polls are beginning to show a small bounce for Obama. Coupled with Romney getting approximately 1-1.5 points in bounce Obama will probably head into the first debate with a lead. In the meantime I'm going to move Missouri to the Romney column. I don't think anyone can argue with that move:

Safe Obama: 237
California-55 (2008 - Obama)
New York-29 (2008 - Obama)
Illinois-20 (2008 - Obama's home state)
Washington-12 (2008 - Obama)
Oregon-7 (2008 - Obama)
Massachusetts-11 (2008 - Obama)
New Jersey-14 (2008 - Obama)
Hawaii-4 (2008 - Obama)
Minnesota-10 (2008 - Obama)
Maryland-10 (2008 - Obama)
Michigan-16 (2008 - Obama)
New Mexico-5 (2008 - Obama)
Maine-4 (2008 - Obama)
Delaware-3 (2008 - Obama)
Connecticut-4 (2008 - Obama)
Vermont-3 (2008 - Obama)
Rhode Island-3 (2008 - Obama)
DC-3 (2008 - Obama)
Pennsylvania-20 (Obama-2008)

Safe Romney: 191
Texas-38 (2008 - McCain)
Tennessee-11 (2008- McCain)
Kentucky-8 (2008 - McCain)
Louisiana-8 (2008 - McCain)
Alabama-9 (2008 - McCain)
Mississippi-6 (2008 - McCain)
Alaska-3 (2008 - McCain)
Oklahoma-7 (2008 - McCain)
Kansas-6 (2008 - McCain)
Nebraska-5 (2008 - McCain)
North Dakota-3 (2008 - McCain)
South Dakota-3 (2008 - McCain)
Montana-3 (2008 - McCain)
Wyoming-3 (2008 - McCain)
Utah-6 (2008 - McCain)
Idaho-4 (2008 - McCain)
Georgia-16 (2008 - McCain)
West Virginia-5 (2008 - McCain)
South Carolina-9 (2008 - McCain)
Arizona-11 (2008-McCain)
Indiana-11 (Obama-2008)
*Missouri-10 (Romney) (McCain-2008)

Tossup: 110
Florida-29 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
Ohio-18 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
Colorado- 9 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
Nevada-6 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
New Hampshire-4 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
Iowa-6 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
North Carolina-15 (Romney) (Obama-2008)
Virginia-13 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
Wisconsin-10 (Obama) (2008 - Obama)

I'll continue to follow the numbers but I suspect this is going to be our list of swing states for the rest of the election. The only states I see sliding away are Nevada and New Hampshire which I think will slide into the Obama camp. If they do he would be at (237+4+6) 247 and could win with Florida or Ohio and Virginia. Romney will win by a hair if he wins by anything.

Romney also announced that he was going to carpet bomb swing states [edit: with money not actual bombs] so we'll see what happens with the polls. He is flush with money but I'm not sure if he's going to be able to overcome the Democratic demographic advantage:

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/09 ... on-speech/

In terms of the convention itself Obama's speech IMHO doesn't rank as high as Clinton or the First Lady's. John Kerry and Joe Biden also had some fine speeches. I'm not sure if Obama's speech, which was better than Romney's, is being measured to harshly against his other speeches by me or not. I suspect so because Obama gave a better speech than any Republican speaker and is hard pressed to be included in the Democrat's top five of the convention. Democrats have a real deep bench of speakers.

Also a quick note: Obama's job approval rating is +12 after the election to 52-43.

[_Bond James Bond]

As a hint to an Obama bump coming out of the Convention he is leading in three tracking polls:

Ipsos/Reuters: Obama 47-43
Gallup: Obama 49-45
Rasmussen: Obama 46-44

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/09/0 ... howAll=yes

Still very close but these tracking polls are based on a seven day running sample so it will take until at least Wed. or Thurs. to get a full feel for Obama's Convention bump.

Onward to the debates!



Anyone want to update their election predictions? I have an itchy feeling Obama will win and the Republicans will maintain the House. Senate is a tossup for me at the moment. Gridlock for another two years? Yippee!

[_MeDotOrg]

Romney advisors concede he has a tougher path to victory:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0912/80949.html

Given the state of the economy, and with Greece and the Euro hanging by a thread, I think it's still to early to call. There are polls and there are voters. If Obama's turnout is depressed by a combination of apathy and voter I.D. laws, I think Romney has a shot. But if the election were today, I would give the nod to Obama.