The 2012 Election

[_Bond James Bond]

http://bostonherald.com/news/politics/v ... ling_homes

She made money flipping homes and you don't like that? Where is the Republican zeal for entrepreneurship?

[_Quasimodo]

I very much hope and pray...

Has that worked well for you in previous elections?

Also, do you suppose someone praying for Warren to win cancels out your prayer?

I'm praying for Warren. Brackite is cancelled out. I'm asking my wife to pray for Warren as well. That's two against one. Warren's election is assured.

[_Bond James Bond]

If you're a poll buff now's the time to start paying attention. More than thirty national and state level polls came out for the Presidential election alone besides polls for other races. Most are going Obama's way but there's always a poll for the Romney fans out there. Too many to transfer over so go below and check out what the state of the nation is:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/09/1 ... uge-begins

[_Bond James Bond]

An update in which nothing changes:

Safe Obama: 237
California-55 (2008 - Obama)
New York-29 (2008 - Obama)
Illinois-20 (2008 - Obama's home state)
Washington-12 (2008 - Obama)
Oregon-7 (2008 - Obama)
Massachusetts-11 (2008 - Obama)
New Jersey-14 (2008 - Obama)
Hawaii-4 (2008 - Obama)
Minnesota-10 (2008 - Obama)
Maryland-10 (2008 - Obama)
Michigan-16 (2008 - Obama)
New Mexico-5 (2008 - Obama)
Maine-4 (2008 - Obama)
Delaware-3 (2008 - Obama)
Connecticut-4 (2008 - Obama)
Vermont-3 (2008 - Obama)
Rhode Island-3 (2008 - Obama)
DC-3 (2008 - Obama)
Pennsylvania-20 (Obama-2008)

Safe Romney: 191
Texas-38 (2008 - McCain)
Tennessee-11 (2008- McCain)
Kentucky-8 (2008 - McCain)
Louisiana-8 (2008 - McCain)
Alabama-9 (2008 - McCain)
Mississippi-6 (2008 - McCain)
Alaska-3 (2008 - McCain)
Oklahoma-7 (2008 - McCain)
Kansas-6 (2008 - McCain)
Nebraska-5 (2008 - McCain)
North Dakota-3 (2008 - McCain)
South Dakota-3 (2008 - McCain)
Montana-3 (2008 - McCain)
Wyoming-3 (2008 - McCain)
Utah-6 (2008 - McCain)
Idaho-4 (2008 - McCain)
Georgia-16 (2008 - McCain)
West Virginia-5 (2008 - McCain)
South Carolina-9 (2008 - McCain)
Arizona-11 (2008-McCain)
Indiana-11 (Obama-2008)
Missouri-10 (Romney) (McCain-2008)

Tossup: 110
Florida-29 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
Ohio-18 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
Colorado- 9 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
Nevada-6 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
New Hampshire-4 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
Iowa-6 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
North Carolina-15 (Romney) (Obama-2008)
Virginia-13 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
Wisconsin-10 (Obama) (2008 - Obama)

Romney has been getting blasted by most of the political community for his comments about the death of the Libyan ambassador and other American state dept. workers. Despite that I think we'll probably be in this holding pattern above until the debate season. Still too much time to lock in anymore of these swing states IMHO. The biggest problem is that one poll casts doubt over a dozen other polls this early. The debates will be a chance to score points so we'll wait until then. If things continue in the same vein with Obama not putting a foot out of bounds and Romney making anymore gaffs I'll soon feel comfortable moving New Hampshire, Nevada, and maybe even Ohio into the Obama column. If that happens Romney will have already lost.

Romney from this point forward is beginning to look desperate in my opinion. Obama came out of the Convention with a bounce and he seems to have maintained it for a week. If he maintains his lead in the polls Obama can sit back in the debates and counter punch Romney's punches. Either way Romney's beginning to be boxed in.

Recent polls from Michigan seem to have taken it off the table (after a poll in August that showed Obama +3 barely ahead of Mitt). Republicans seem to have given up on Pennsylvania and New Mexico as well. They have very few paths to victory and it will only shrink as long as Obama maintains his lead.

A bigger question for me (since I think Obama is winning) is if the Senate will remain Democratic. I currently think the Republicans will lose a few House seats but don't think they'll lose the House.

[_Drifting]

Ah the debate season...

*Romney and Obama enter from different sides of the stage and shake hands in the middle*

OB "What was that?"
RO "What? It was a handshake."
OB "Has it a name?"

*Obama wins the debate*

[_Bond James Bond]

Ah the debate season...

*Romney and Obama enter from different sides of the stage and shake hands in the middle*

OB "What was that?"
RO "What? It was a handshake."
OB "Has it a name?"

*Obama wins the debate*

[_Brackite]

Gallup now has Obama at 49%, and it now has Romney at 44%.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/150743/Obama-Romney.aspx


The Latest Poll for the Senate race in Massachusetts now has Senator Scott Brown at 46%, and it now has Elizabeth Warren at 45%.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/sen ... enate-race


Hopefully, Senator Scott Brown will be able to get back a better lead in the Polls during the next several weeks there.

[Guest]

Nate Silver has added a new feature to his fivethirtyeight.com blog. A Senate projection! I'm too excited, especially since Democratic fortunes appear to have improved in recent polls.

Anyway here are the Senate races of 2012 (and my projections) I add seats that switch parties in BOLD. The reason there are so many Democrats is that a large number of Democrats won in 2006 when the Democrats swept to the House victory amid horrible Bush II news on Iraq/Katrina/etc.

Safe Democrat:
California
Washington
Minnesota
Maine (an Independent Angus King who should caucus Democrat is a gain)
Vermont (Independent Bernie Sanders)
West Virginia
New York
Maryland
New Jersey
Rhode Island
Delaware
Hawaii

Lean Democrat:
Michigan
Ohio
Florida
New Mexico

Tossup:
Virginia (Democrat hold)
Massachusetts (Democrat gain)
Missouri (Democrat hold)
Virginia (Democrat hold)
Connecticut (Democrat hold)
Indiana (Republican hold)
Wisconsin (I'm torn. Call it a true tossup that leans Democrat hold)
Montana (Call it a true tossup but I think Republican)
Nevada (Tossup but Democratic gain)

Lean Republican:
North Dakota (Republican pickup)
Nebraska (Republican pickup)
Arizona

Safe Republican:
Texas
Mississippi
Tennessee
Utah
Wyoming

Too tired to figure out what that means for Senate. Senate looks much better though for Democrats in Massachusetts and Wisconsin recently and the retirement of the Republican in Maine was a disaster for Republican plans to recapture the Senate. It'll probably be 51-49 or 52-48 for Democrats. I could easily see Indiana, Montana going Democrat as well if Obama does well.

[_Brackite]

Here is some good news about the latest Poll for the Senate race in Massachusetts:

http://www.boston.com/politicalintellig ... story.html

[_krose]

I can't see any way that qualifies as good news, Brackite.



But on another subject, I would love to see the Rom-bot win the popular vote by a significant margin, but lose the election by getting fewer electoral votes.

The only way I would anticipate a serious move to get rid of the antiquated joke that is the Electoral College is for that to happen to a Republican.