Ludd wrote: I've watched quite a few political debates in my life. I've tried to be informed voter. Last night's debate showed the biggest difference I've ever seen between the winner and the loser. Usually both sides can point to their favorite and make a case that he did well in comparison to the other guy. But not last night. Even the people who LOVE Obama on MSNBC were appalled at how badly their guy did. Usually they can spin things to their favor no matter what happens. But not after last night's debate. It was that bad for Obama and that much of a rout by Romney. Wow! I didn't expect this at all. It will be interesting to see how much the polls in the important swing states are affected by what happened. I think it's quite possible that Romney could have tipped the whole election in his favor on the basis of how badly he clobbered Obama last night.
Romney did not look like he is a member of a 'cult'.
I intend to lay a foundation that will revolutionize the whole world. Joseph Smith We are “to feed the hungry, to clothe the naked, to provide for the widow, to dry up the tear of the orphan, to comfort the afflicted, whether in this church, or in any other, or in no church at all…” Joseph Smith
Ludd wrote:I've had this idea in my mind that he is actually kind of a bumbler.
That's only when he has to sound genuine speaking to real people off the cuff, without months of preparation and practice. Or when being pushed to answer a question in an interview.
You must not have watched the primary debates, most of which he won handily. He always does very well in that type of debate format.
"The DNA of fictional populations appears to be the most susceptible to extinction." - Simon Southerton
why me wrote: Romney did not look like he is a member of a 'cult'.
Mark it on your calendars. I agree with why me on something. Romney looked better than he has looked since he won the nomination. But targeting Big Bird as his only specific budget cut is going to undermine it all. Just wait and see. If he had anything else specific re: budget cuts, it would not have been so bad.
"The Church is authoritarian, tribal, provincial, and founded on a loosely biblical racist frontier sex cult."--Juggler Vain "The LDS church is the Amway of religions. Even with all the soap they sell, they still manage to come away smelling dirty."--Some Schmo
Ludd wrote:I've watched quite a few political debates in my life. I've tried to be informed voter. Last night's debate showed the biggest difference I've ever seen between the winner and the loser. Usually both sides can point to their favorite and make a case that he did well in comparison to the other guy. But not last night. Even the people who LOVE Obama on MSNBC were appalled at how badly their guy did. Usually they can spin things to their favor no matter what happens. But not after last night's debate. It was that bad for Obama and that much of a rout by Romney.
I can think of three similarly lopsided debates: Mondale over Reagan in the first debate in 1984 (Mondale went on to lose 49 states); Bentsen over Quayle in 1988 (Dukakis went on to lose in a landslide); and Kerry over Dubya in their first debate in 2004 (Dubya won in a relatively close election, but not as close as his 2000 electoral victory). Of all the races in recent history, this one is most reminiscent of 2004 (understandably, Republicans want to draw parallels to 1980 but for a variety of reasons, those don't really work).
"The Church is authoritarian, tribal, provincial, and founded on a loosely biblical racist frontier sex cult."--Juggler Vain "The LDS church is the Amway of religions. Even with all the soap they sell, they still manage to come away smelling dirty."--Some Schmo
Equality wrote:Mark it on your calendars. I agree with why me on something. Romney looked better than he has looked since he won the nomination. But targeting Big Bird as his only specific budget cut is going to undermine it all. Just wait and see. If he had anything else specific re: budget cuts, it would not have been so bad.
Seems like a strange thing to hang your hope on. No one I've talked to about this today has even mentioned the Big Bird thing, except you. I have a couple of extremely liberal colleagues who agreed that Obama got his clock cleaned, and that's what I think they'll remember. Big Bird is a nice visual, but showing up unprepared and meandering your way through a debate is what will stick.
Romney has not impressed me as a candidate, and I would have preferred a different nominee (except the other ones were so awful). But he had a good night, and Obama didn't. Big Bird doesn't change that.
"It doesn't seem fair, does it Norm--that I should have so much knowledge when there are people in the world that have to go to bed stupid every night." -- Clifford C. Clavin, USPS
"¡No contaban con mi astucia!" -- El Chapulin Colorado
Equality wrote:I can think of three similarly lopsided debates: Mondale over Reagan in the first debate in 1984 (Mondale went on to lose 49 states); Bentsen over Quayle in 1988 (Dukakis went on to lose in a landslide); and Kerry over Dubya in their first debate in 2004 (Dubya won in a relatively close election, but not as close as his 2000 electoral victory). Of all the races in recent history, this one is most reminiscent of 2004 (understandably, Republicans want to draw parallels to 1980 but for a variety of reasons, those don't really work).
I don't think this fundamentally changes the nature of the race, but I think that the only worse debate performance in the ones you mention was Quayle/Bentsen. If nothing else, things had been so bad for Romney lately that the president could have scored a knockout last night with even a mediocre performance.
If you look at the polls after the debates, you see quickly that the only comparable victory for a challenger was Clinton in 1992, with a +42 spread that translated into a 4-point shift in the polls. Romney's spread was +45, which is unprecedented. If that results in a 2-3-point shift, that makes them essentially tied. And the NYTimes is predicting such a "bump": "But for what it’s worth, the historical data would project a gain of 2.2 percentage points for Mr. Romney in the head-to-head polls by this time next week."
"It doesn't seem fair, does it Norm--that I should have so much knowledge when there are people in the world that have to go to bed stupid every night." -- Clifford C. Clavin, USPS
"¡No contaban con mi astucia!" -- El Chapulin Colorado
Bob Loblaw wrote:[If that results in a 2-3-point shift, that makes them essentially tied. And the NYTimes is predicting such a "bump": "But for what it’s worth, the historical data would project a gain of 2.2 percentage points for Mr. Romney in the head-to-head polls by this time next week."
Interesting chart. I knew Clinton won that 92 debate but I did not know it was that pronounced. Romney will probably get a bounce in the polls. How big is anyone's guess. Kerry had more undecided Democrats to win over at this stage in 2004. Whether there are enough undecideds who would be swayed to throw their support behind Romney after a 90-minute sales job is an open question. Important for Romney is that his financial backers will now stick by him and not start funneling money to down-ticket races. Ironically, Obama's failure to land the knockout punch may inure to the benefit of Democratic Senate candidates whose opponents will not be receiving the infusion of cash they would have received had Romney laid an egg last night. This is still Obama's race to lose. But if Ohio stays solidly behind him, Mittens is toast no matter how many people agree that he won last night's debate--it will be a Pyrrhic victory for him.
"The Church is authoritarian, tribal, provincial, and founded on a loosely biblical racist frontier sex cult."--Juggler Vain "The LDS church is the Amway of religions. Even with all the soap they sell, they still manage to come away smelling dirty."--Some Schmo
Bob Loblaw wrote:No one I've talked to about this today has even mentioned the Big Bird thing, except you.
What can I say? I am ahead of the curve on this. I agree it is not in the zeitgeist today. Give it a few days to percolate. If SNL spoofs it, that's when it will start to permeate the cultural milieu. Think Gladwell's Tipping Point.
"The Church is authoritarian, tribal, provincial, and founded on a loosely biblical racist frontier sex cult."--Juggler Vain "The LDS church is the Amway of religions. Even with all the soap they sell, they still manage to come away smelling dirty."--Some Schmo
Equality wrote:What can I say? I am ahead of the curve on this. I agree it is not in the zeitgeist today. Give it a few days to percolate. If SNL spoofs it, that's when it will start to permeate the cultural milieu. Think Gladwell's Tipping Point.
It would be interesting to see if SNL would spoof Obama's wandering, bored performance. Probably not. You and I care about PBS, but most people in this country couldn't give a rat's ass about it. That's the hard reality, which is why I doubt your meme has any traction.
"It doesn't seem fair, does it Norm--that I should have so much knowledge when there are people in the world that have to go to bed stupid every night." -- Clifford C. Clavin, USPS
"¡No contaban con mi astucia!" -- El Chapulin Colorado
If there's going to be a meme, here's my suggestion:
"It doesn't seem fair, does it Norm--that I should have so much knowledge when there are people in the world that have to go to bed stupid every night." -- Clifford C. Clavin, USPS
"¡No contaban con mi astucia!" -- El Chapulin Colorado
