Keynesian Economics vindicated... again

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_Droopy
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Re: Keynesian Economics vindicated... again

Post by _Droopy »

Kevin Graham wrote:Oh, and keep falsely claiming your signature remark originated with me. No one here expects you to exercise a little integrity. Because you'd have to have it first.



I already promised to remove it, but I've been too busy dodging your Molotov Cocktails.
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_Gadianton
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Re: Keynesian Economics vindicated... again

Post by _Gadianton »

Droopy rejects math and scientific evidence to support his economic theories, so what does he rely upon to support them?


That's a great question, how do Austrians, like Droopy, stay consistent here? The answer is, they don't. There are a few Austrians with actual real degrees out there, and they break with tradition. I mentioned Roger Garrison in my 6 part intro that Droopy didn't read, he might be what you'd call the John Sorenson of the Austrian School. If there is a go-to guy for Austrian apologetics, it's him. Real nice guy by the way, their top apologists are nothing like FARMS in attitude, Droopy is a poor representative in this way. Well, he is a TBA if there ever was one, but he made a break with tradition and wrote a textbook on Austrian macro that breaks all the rules that warn against "formalizing mankind", and well, kind of established himself as "the man." But, he's very open about the fact that he received loads of hatemail from "Chapel Austrians" who reject economics as a science, as Droopy does. For those like Garrison, and their numbers are increasing, you'll find far less anti-science/math rhetoric as they themselves can't comprehend econ any other way. The Droopy types miss that they have to make a decision here and one day proof-text Von Mises against math -- I explain this in my 6 parter why Von Mises anti-math wasn't as bad as it sounds, as bad as Droopy's anti-math -- and the next quote some number about the economy from a news source as proof of their positio, a number arrived at by using econometrics, I'll let Droopy go ahead and search for that word on the Von Mises website and give us a cut-and-paste lesson on it.
_Analytics
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Re: Keynesian Economics vindicated... again

Post by _Analytics »

Droopy wrote:
In any case, I am quite curious. How do you know that mathematical economics cannot “capture anything approaching the actual dynamics of a complex market economy?” How does one go about proving that negative?



http://mises.org/daily/616/


Even though it doesn’t address the question, it is an interesting link. I’m not sure if the point is that you are toning down your position to what’s stated in the article, or if you think a blogger asserting something similar to what you assert here constitutes proof that your assertion is true.

In any case, my favorite part of the essay was the analogy that mathematics is useless to understand the economy, just as mathematics is useless in understanding baseball.

I wonder if the author wrote this before or after seeing the movie Moneyball?
It’s relatively easy to agree that only Homo sapiens can speak about things that don’t really exist, and believe six impossible things before breakfast. You could never convince a monkey to give you a banana by promising him limitless bananas after death in monkey heaven.

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_Gadianton
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Re: Keynesian Economics vindicated... again

Post by _Gadianton »

I, too, snickered at Callahan's blog post, with an air of superiority.

Callahan wrote:Arbitrage traders must employ their historical understanding in an attempt to grasp how other market participants will react to this news. Once this evaluation is completed, a new risk factor for deal failure can be fed into the model and it will again function reasonably well. The point is that the model cannot capture the change of perception, which is the beginning of the creation of a new plan. And it is precisely this planning which is the subject of economics.


The underlined is precisely false. Since the key assumption of market equilibrium is that no arbitrage opportunities exist, and free-market economists believe the market is in equilibrium, let me ask Droopy a question. How can the entire subject of economics -- a pretty wide range of topics by the way -- be dedicated to the single task of modeling the market to exploit arbitrage opportunities?

Whatever "human action" lingo the Austrians wish to consecrate the cause, what they really want to argue for here is that the market can't be modeled. If Callahan keeps up with his line of reasoning, he might stumble onto market efficiency on his own. But he's not allowed to believe in market efficiency as an Austrian -- just read the essays published by his Austrian colleague, Frank Shostak, a fund manager. The bread and butter of an active fund manager is (supposedly) arbitraging financial markets, but if the market is efficient, arbitrage opportunites don't exist and the active fund manager is out of a job.

A Keynesian is engaged in something very similar to arbitrage. Believing the economy gets "stuck" or that markets aren't efficient, a Keynesian spends a small amount of money to leverage a huge windfall as the stimulus "unsticks" the economy and it moves to equilibrium. One could say an aspect of Keynesian econonomics is modeling the economy such that one knows when, and how much to stimulate, and this would be in line with what Callahan is talking about.

An Austrian knows that Say's law says the economy naturally is in equilibrium, so the task is to show that interventionists (such as Keynes) can't use fancy models -- the subject of "scientific" economics, to predict the market such as to make interventionist decisions. But right here is a failure on Callahan's part to understand the difference between an analytic and empirical approach to a subject -- a scientific one -- and specifically creating a "predictive" science out of economics along the lines of newtonian phyiscs. Some of the heaviest math in economics is applied to demonstrating market efficiency, which implies that economics can't be a predictive science.

But would it be so bad to throw the Austrian fund managers under a bus, eliminate their arbitrage opportunities, if at the same time the motive for intervention by leftists is also eliminated? Yes, it would be, because you'd also have to throw the Austrian Business Cycle under the bus as it contradicted by market efficiency as well. But wait, don't Austrian's believe in Say's law? Isn't that the same thing as market effiency?

The problem is that while in financial economics Say's law just more or less pops right out as market efficiency, in macroeconomics, there's this detour through monetary theory where the Austrians were influenced by Wicksell just as Keynes. Austrians think that Say's law naturally holds, but as soon as money is printed, it creates an artificial boom that is eventually corrected by a "bust", as Say's law works things out. Keynesians offer another story about how a bust happens, but go on to argue printing money helps bring the market back to equilibrium. Looking at it from Fisher's standpoint, print more money and all you get is inflation, in other words, it would seem Fisher argues Say's law holds irrespective of money, or rather Say's law holds. What the Austrians are really arguing is that Say's law can temporarily not hold. If Fisher is right, if all printing money does is create inflation, then not only is Keynesian monetary policy a waste of time, the Austrian Business cycle becomes pure fantasy -- money creation doesn't cause a boom.

Austrians are in a catch-22, when countering market socialism (and interventionism generally), they are advocates of Say's law and make arguments like Calahan's that get dangerously close to arguing for market efficiency. But then when they are flanked by Chicago and told that rational expectations theory and market efficiency contradict the Austrian Business Cycle, they are forced into a 180 and contradict their previous selves by arguing the market is not efficient, and end up sounding like central planners themselves.

edited to improve the explanation
_cinepro
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Re: Keynesian Economics vindicated... again

Post by _cinepro »

There are lots of long posts in this thread, but I think Krugman's point is best illustrated by this statement:

Mr. Obama’s camp argues for an active government role; his last major economic proposal, the American Jobs Act, would have tried to accelerate recovery by sustaining public spending and putting money in the hands of people likely to use it. Republicans, on the other hand, insist that the path to prosperity involves sharp cuts in government spending.


That is a great summary of the choice voters are being asked to make. If someone believes that "sustaining public spending" and having the government try to "put money in the hands of people likely to use it" (hopefully "use it well" is implied, but I've seen no evidence that that is a consideration), then Obama would be the person to vote for.

If someone believes that sounds like a bad idea, then hopefully Romney is the chosen alternative.

As for "Keynsian economics" being "vindicated", I will only say that it is a little early in the game to be picking winners. Keynsian economies are like marijuana addicts that are given heroin to help them get off marijuana. Sure, it's great that you got them off marijuana, but lets get them off the heroin* too before we start celebrating.


*The "heroin" is borrowing or printing money, and artificially low interest rates.
_cinepro
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Re: Keynesian Economics vindicated... again

Post by _cinepro »

I'll also clarify that I want the same things that the Democrats and Keynsians want (no poor or hungry people, full employment, strong wages, affordable quality healthcare for everyone, clean air and water, etc.)

The reason I'm not a Democrat or Keynsian isn't because I want something different. It's because I don't think the policies of the Democratic party will work. To me, they're the political equivalent of someone hawking a perpetual motion device. I want "free energy", I just don't think those devices will work.

Likewise, I acknowledge the good intentions behind many Democrat policies, I just believe they will ultimately lead to disaster (see: Spain, Italy, Greece, Ireland). Granted, we can do one thing they can't: print our own money. But that will only delay the inevitable, and eventually, people will be rioting in the streets and the politicians will be wringing their hands, wondering where they're going to get all the money they need to pay the bills.

The only argument I've heard against this is based on the idea that the US economy is "different", but as far as I can tell, the surest way to economic ruin is to think you're the exception to the rule. Everyone thought the internet bubble wasn't going to crash because internet companies were somehow different, everyone thought the real estate bubble wasn't going to burst because real estate was somehow different, and some people think the government will never drown in its financial obligations because it is somehow different.

The only difference is that the US government is able to kick the can down the road much longer than any regular state or local government or business could. But eventually the numbers will catch up to reality. We can either work on the problem now when it will be moderately painful, or we can wait until people are rioting in the streets.

And if you want to be really scared, just remember that their aren't enough rich people with enough money to solve the problem. So anytime you hear politicians arguing over tax rates, they're just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic. We could go to a 99% tax rate on the wealthy and it wouldn't solve the problem. They're wasting time and effort and putting on a dog-and-pony show because they're too scared to try and address the real problems.

But don't be too amazed at my clarity of thought or ability to see the future. I have the advantage of living in California, so I'm a few years ahead of most other Americans when it comes to economic disaster.
_Kevin Graham
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Re: Keynesian Economics vindicated... again

Post by _Kevin Graham »

Cinepro, the RIght Wing has no answer for our problems. You want to dumb down our proposal as if it could be reduced to nothing more than taxing the rich, but in doing so you illustrate your failure to understand Keynesian economics. In reality the Right Wing is desperately trying to come up with something that makes sense (but as non-partisan economists insist, the math just doesn't add up). But ultimately it is the same answer they come up with every election year. Their only proposal is the same one that has failed time and time again. Lower taxes on the rich and as the theory goes, they'll use that extra money to hire workers and revenues will increase as a result. It has never worked out that way. Ever. Conservative economists who worked for both Reagan and Bush have since admitted that tax cuts do not pay for themselves. Economic prosperity under Reagan, as admitted by his own advisers, came because the Fed slashed the already high interest rates. Reagan in fact had to increase taxes six times in order to offset the massive deficits he was creating. This "tax cuts for the rich = economic prosperity for everyone" was an ongoing myth that has been easily shattered by recent reality. Thanks to Bush, we've been in a period of record lows for taxes, and look what that did for Job creation. Hundreds of thousands of jobs lost month after month just as he was leaving office.

As far as complaining about deficit spending, your own VP candidate admitted in multiple letters that stimulus money he requested would produce jobs. This is Keynesian. He admitted, unwittingly, that it works. But he now runs against the same thing he already admitted would create jobs. Ever bother to ask why? And as far as your harping about government spending, it would be much easier to take the current Right Wing complaint seriously if it weren't for the fact that the Conservatives were the ones who wrote the book on running up massive deficits. The deficits and our debt exploded under Reagan and Bush, while we enjoyed fifty years of economic prosperity after WWII primarily as a result of the Keynesian mechanisms that were employed at the time. The economy was booming under Clinton, when taxes were much higher and the deficit was gone for the first time in decades. When democrats tried to warn of massive deficits caused by the wars, Dick Cheney told us "deficits don't matter." And so where was the outcry from those fiscal conservatives who pretend to be so worried about the debt? It didn't exist. They were silent. They had to wait until a Democrat took office before they could complain and pin the blame on someone else. Suddenly, they're all about austerity measures because they saw how the stimulus was working to get us out of economic depression we were in. Again, Ryan admitted that stimulus worked, but they want the recovery to go as slowly as possible for their own political gain which is why the shoot down everything Obama proposes to further stimulate the economy. They know that any public acknowledgment that the Keynesian stimulus was working, would be detrimental to their political power grabs. This is one of the reasons I've concluded the Right Wing really doesn't care about the benefit of the people. It is all about themselves.

Krugman's article points to one the most recent example of Keynesian vindication, but Richard Posner wrote in 2009 why he suddenly became a Keynesian which provides a history of its success: http://www.tnr.com/article/how-i-became-keynesian
_cinepro
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Re: Keynesian Economics vindicated... again

Post by _cinepro »

Kevin Graham wrote:Cinepro, the RIght Wing has no answer for our problems.


Sadly, I would agree that the current crop of Republicans don't appear to have the brains or the backbone needed to do what needs to be done.

Their only proposal is the same one that has failed time and time again. Lower taxes on the rich and as the theory goes, they'll use that extra money to hire workers and revenues will increase as a result. It has never worked out that way. Ever. Conservative economists who worked for both Reagan and Bush have since admitted that tax cuts do not pay for themselves.


I agree. The only hope for our long-term economy is for the government to massively cut spending, including its obligations to entitlement programs and defense.

Economic prosperity under Reagan, as admitted by his own advisers, came because the Fed slashed the already high interest rates. Reagan in fact had to increase taxes six times in order to offset the massive deficits he was creating. This "tax cuts for the rich = economic prosperity for everyone" was an ongoing myth that has been easily shattered by recent reality. Thanks to Bush, we've been in a period of record lows for taxes, and look what that did for Job creation. Hundreds of thousands of jobs lost month after month just as he was leaving office.


The Bush tax cuts were a terrible idea. Even if there had been a tangible government "surplus" at the time, the responsible thing to do would have been to enact a one time refund to return the surplus to tax payers.

Bush cut taxes and increased (deficit) spending which is about the only thing dumber than increasing taxes and spending.

But again, the rates being discussed are inconsequential to the size of the governments problem.

As far as complaining about deficit spending, your own VP candidate admitted in multiple letters that stimulus money he requested would produce jobs. This is Keynesian. He admitted, unwittingly, that it works.


No one denies that if the government hires someone, or gives someone else money so they can hire someone, a job is created. The question is where did the government get the money to do this, and how is this good for the long term health of the country?

Ryan asking for money doesn't prove that government stimulus "works". It proves that Ryan is just as much a politician as every other politician that said or did something for his constituents in order to help his short-term job prospects.

Like I've said elsewhere, I thought the first-time homebuyer's tax credit was insanely stupid, but when I qualified for it, I cashed the check.

But he now runs against the same thing he already admitted would create jobs. Ever bother to ask why? And as far as your harping about government spending, it would be much easier to take the current Right Wing complaint seriously if it weren't for the fact that the Conservatives were the ones who wrote the book on running up massive deficits. The deficits and our debt exploded under Reagan and Bush, while we enjoyed fifty years of economic prosperity after WWII primarily as a result of the Keynesian mechanisms that were employed at the time. The economy was booming under Clinton, when taxes were much higher and the deficit was gone for the first time in decades. When democrats tried to warn of massive deficits caused by the wars, Dick Cheney told us "deficits don't matter." And so where was the outcry from those fiscal conservatives who pretend to be so worried about the debt? It didn't exist. They were silent. They had to wait until a Democrat took office before they could complain and pin the blame on someone else. Suddenly, they're all about austerity measures because they saw how the stimulus was working to get us out of economic depression we were in. Again, Ryan admitted that stimulus worked, but they want the recovery to go as slowly as possible for their own political gain which is why the shoot down everything Obama proposes to further stimulate the economy. They know that any public acknowledgment that the Keynesian stimulus was working, would be detrimental to their political power grabs. This is one of the reasons I've concluded the Right Wing really doesn't care about the benefit of the people. It is all about themselves.

Krugman's article points to one the most recent example of Keynesian vindication, but Richard Posner wrote in 2009 why he suddenly became a Keynesian which provides a history of its success: http://www.tnr.com/article/how-i-became-keynesian


I'm sorry, but the "stimulus" and other government attempts to interfere in the economy aren't "working". They are only successful in delaying the pain that we will have to deal with to sort out the mistakes of the 2000's. They're doing a good job of trying to inflate away some of the pain (inflation benefits debtors and hurts creditors, so all those people who owe money and the US government itself benefit from money printing), but inflation will bring its own problems (as it always does, otherwise every country would be printing its way to prosperity as we speak).

Keynesian economics don't work in the same way that perpetual motion machines don't work. Keynes relies on "magic", with the idea that a government can somehow get money through taxing it from the people, borrowing it, or printing it, and then placing that money somewhere else in the economy (after deducting the costs of the government itself), and somehow create more wealth than the economy started with. That doesn't work.

If the money comes from taxes, then the economy will shrink by the amount of inefficiency introduced by the government moving the money around and redistributing it.

If the money comes from borrowing, then the only chance for things to get better is if the government can create a return on the investment that exceeds the interest being paid, minus any losses from poor investment decisions.

If the money is printed, it provides a short term benefit to the banks who receive it into the system first (they get to use it before the effects of this newly created money get realized in higher prices). It creates a disadvantage to those who are further down the line from the banks. Did you ever wonder why the fed gives the newly printed money to the banks instead of doing something much more logical and "stimulating", such as mailing out $1,000 bills to random people across the country?

The question to all this isn't whether or not Keynesian Democrats or Hayekian Republicans should be in charge. The real question is whether or not politicians should have this much power to control the economy in the first place. When questions about the government's actions in the economy come up, instead of debating yes or no, first we should discuss why the government even has that option in the first place.

Once people stop wondering how the government got the power to "save" banks and car companies and give money to people for jobs (or not give it, depending on their whims), or give money to people who don't have jobs, it's all down hill from there.
_Kevin Graham
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Re: Keynesian Economics vindicated... again

Post by _Kevin Graham »

Sadly, I would agree that the current crop of Republicans don't appear to have the brains or the backbone needed to do what needs to be done.

Which is...?
I agree. The only hope for our long-term economy is for the government to massively cut spending, including its obligations to entitlement programs and defense.

Please be more specific. Which entitlement programs would you like to see cut, and by how much? And how on earth does that in any way boost the economy?
No one denies that if the government hires someone, or gives someone else money so they can hire someone, a job is created. The question is where did the government get the money to do this, and how is this good for the long term health of the country?

Why don't you check the history books for your answer. Our economy prospered for more than fifty years after WWII because it did precisely the things you're warning us about now. Go figure.
Ryan asking for money doesn't prove that government stimulus "works".

It proves he believed it did when he asked for it, especially when he stipulated in his letter that it was desperately needed for job growth.
It proves that Ryan is just as much a politician as every other politician that said or did something for his constituents in order to help his short-term job prospects.

Ah, so he lied. That makes it all right I'm sure.
I'm sorry, but the "stimulus" and other government attempts to interfere in the economy aren't "working". They are only successful in delaying the pain that we will have to deal with to sort out the mistakes of the 2000's.

Your repeating disproved myth. Again, virtually all studies have already proved the stimulus worked.
They're doing a good job of trying to inflate away some of the pain (inflation benefits debtors and hurts creditors, so all those people who owe money and the US government itself benefit from money printing), but inflation will bring its own problems (as it always does, otherwise every country would be printing its way to prosperity as we speak).

Again, this is Glenn Beck nonsense. Inflation isn't happening, let alone "hyperinflation" as you folks have been predicting.
Keynesian economics don't work in the same way that perpetual motion machines don't work. Keynes relies on "magic", with the idea that a government can somehow get money through taxing it from the people, borrowing it, or printing it, and then placing that money somewhere else in the economy (after deducting the costs of the government itself), and somehow create more wealth than the economy started with. That doesn't work.

But it has worked, and is working still. Take some time off from reading the National Review, and then spend a little time out in the real world.
The real question is whether or not politicians should have this much power to control the economy in the first place. When questions about the government's actions in the economy come up, instead of debating yes or no, first we should discuss why the government even has that option in the first place.

Or a better question is why shouldn't it?
_aussieguy55
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Re: Keynesian Economics vindicated... again

Post by _aussieguy55 »

The funny thing in Australia, to encourage the use of solar power gave rebates toward the cost of installing them. Before the time to the rebate expired thousands of people signed up. What is happening now is that electricity consumption is dropping. Those without solar power are paying increased charges while those with solar power get paid for the excess they supply to the grid. Because the owners of the Power Stations borrowed to build the stations, and pay for coal they now charge more to the non solar power users. Ah the law of unintended consequences.
Hilary Clinton " I won the places that represent two-thirds of America's GDP.I won in places are optimistic diverse, dynamic, moving forward"
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