Electoral Predictions

[_Wilma Fingerdoo]

I predict that no matter who wins....all middle class Americans lose.

If Obama wins our country becomes deeper in debt and possibly more of a welfare state. If that is possible

If Romney wins the top 1% grab even more power and money and America becomes another Mexico where few people control all the wealth, make all the decisions, and will do everything in their power to underpay and under educate the general population. This is the main reason republicans hate public education. The more ignorant the populace the more power they wield.

It is bleak future for us middle classes.

[_moksha]

Hasn't this been foreordained by the Angel Murphy's Law? I believe it decreeth that Mitt Romney shall be the winner. The element of agency involved here will be whether Bc and Droopy can generate enough threads on this forum to be the cosmic tipping point.

[_EAllusion]

If the election swings to Romney because a very narrow margin of victory in any state or combination of states that have Republican pushed voter suppression policies in place (Colorado and Florida coming first to mind) Democrats are going to go apopletic. I think BSCspace would be right to predict a potentially serious legal fight depending on how close the margin is.

Can a myth also be a lie at the same time? Yup, and E just demonstrated the ease with which the two can be combined into a single knee-slapping spurt of vacuous mendacity (the idea of Republican voter suppression is, of course, a pure fabrication. As the vast bulk of known election fraud has, and continues to be, centered among Democrats and there allies, there's a bit or irony to contend with here as well).

My favorite attempt at voter suppression in Wisconsin is when, after passing new ID requirements, the Walker administration tried to shut down DMV's in Democratic areas and open new ones in Republican areas. Good times.

[_Bob Loblaw]

Bob is cheating. He is like me, and follows this:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

Gotcha!!

Actually, I haven't been following 538, but I have been reading a lot on http://www.realclearpolitics.com/

[_MCB]

Actually, I haven't been following 538, but I have been reading a lot on http://www.realclearpolitics.com/

Watching both gives me a balanced view.

The political and economic discussions on this board are enlightening. Never really studied much of either, nor had much interest. Gadianton's mind is something to behold, in particular.

[_bcspace]

In cases that close where Romney wins, I predict the Democrats will go to court and we will have multiple Florida 2000's all at once. I also predict the chance for mass rioting in that case will be very very high.

I agree with you. I was just thinking the other night that, given the fever pitch the American left has whipped itself into the last four years, its perception of itself as in ascendency, and the still simmering cult of personality that surrounds Obama, the possibility of a repeat of the late sixties is actually a fair one.

http://www.infowars.com/will-the-election-results-cause-massive-riots-to-erupt-all-over-america/

[_Bob Loblaw]

Some other predictions from your friendly, delusional, moocher-hating Republican-in-denial.

If Romney wins: Expect the Democrats to return the favor of the last four years and refuse to compromise with the GOP and continue to demonize Republicans. Obamacare will not be repealed because there are not enough votes in the Senate to repeal it. Romney's 20% tax cut will go nowhere (Schumer has already ruled out that and any other attempts at tax reform), but Congress may go along with a plan to eliminate deductions and loopholes on higher income earners. The Senate will refuse to confirm any Supreme Court justices unless they have a proven moderate track record. The economy will gradually improve because we are on the tail end of a recessive cycle. Deficits will decline gradually as a result of economic growth, not fiscal discipline, but large deficits will continue for the foreseeable future. Democrats will nominate a candidate in 2016 designed to appeal to moderate, independent voters, as the loss of support among these voters would be the likely cause of an Obama defeat. If, as I expect, the economy has improved, Romney will likely be re-elected, barring a scandal or economic collapse.

If Obama wins: Look for Republicans to stay the course and oppose everything Obama does. The repeal of Obamacare will pass the House but not the Senate (see above). The Bush-era tax cuts on the wealthy will expire (Republicans will say they got the best deal they could), but the $2.2 trillion of the rest of Bush's cuts will stay. Other than letting these cuts expire, there will be no attempt at tax reform, as the last four years have shown the Democrats have no interest in changing the tax code (and see Schumer's vow above). The Senate will confirm Obama's nominees for the Supreme Court (there will likely be two vacancies), so we'll have two more justices of the same ideological stripe as Elena Kagan and Sonia Sotomayor, which will tip the balance of the court back to a liberal slant. The economy will gradually improve because we are on the tail end of a recessive cycle. Deficits will decline gradually as a result of economic growth, not fiscal discipline, but large deficits will continue for the foreseeable future. Republicans will judge that they lost in 2012 because Romney was "too moderate," and therefore they will nominate an extremely conservative candidate along the lines of Rick Santorum. In this case, the Republicans will lose big in 2016.

[_Ceeboo]

Some other predictions from your friendly, delusional, moocher-hating Republican-in-denial.

Peace,
Ceeboo

[_Tarski]

Some other predictions from your friendly, delusional, moocher-hating Republican-in-denial.

If Romney wins: Expect the Democrats to return the favor of the last four years and refuse to compromise with the GOP and continue to demonize Republicans. Obamacare will not be repealed because there are not enough votes in the Senate to repeal it. Romney's 20% tax cut will go nowhere (Schumer has already ruled out that and any other attempts at tax reform), but Congress may go along with a plan to eliminate deductions and loopholes on higher income earners. The Senate will refuse to confirm any Supreme Court justices unless they have a proven moderate track record. The economy will gradually improve because we are on the tail end of a recessive cycle. Deficits will decline gradually as a result of economic growth, not fiscal discipline, but large deficits will continue for the foreseeable future. Democrats will nominate a candidate in 2016 designed to appeal to moderate, independent voters, as the loss of support among these voters would be the likely cause of an Obama defeat. If, as I expect, the economy has improved, Romney will likely be re-elected, barring a scandal or economic collapse.

If Obama wins: Look for Republicans to stay the course and oppose everything Obama does. The repeal of Obamacare will pass the House but not the Senate (see above). The Bush-era tax cuts on the wealthy will expire (Republicans will say they got the best deal they could), but the $2.2 trillion of the rest of Bush's cuts will stay. Other than letting these cuts expire, there will be no attempt at tax reform, as the last four years have shown the Democrats have no interest in changing the tax code (and see Schumer's vow above). The Senate will confirm Obama's nominees for the Supreme Court (there will likely be two vacancies), so we'll have two more justices of the same ideological stripe as Elena Kagan and Sonia Sotomayor, which will tip the balance of the court back to a liberal slant. The economy will gradually improve because we are on the tail end of a recessive cycle. Deficits will decline gradually as a result of economic growth, not fiscal discipline, but large deficits will continue for the foreseeable future. Republicans will judge that they lost in 2012 because Romney was "too moderate," and therefore they will nominate an extremely conservative candidate along the lines of Rick Santorum. In this case, the Republicans will lose big in 2016.

Not a bad guess.

People are stupid stubborn ideologues on both sides and this will not change.

[_cinepro]

It looks like Romney has been getting some good momentum, but I will still be surprised if he edges out Obama in Ohio and enough swing states.

A lot can happen in three weeks (and two debates!), so who knows...? But I still think Romney will probably lose, and in retrospect it will be obvious the Republicans picked the wrong man for the job.