This is meaningless, of course. RCP also has Obama winning 294 to 244 if the election were held today. Romney has to make up ground in places like Ohio and Iowa, but he's not.
whoever has led the Gallup likely voter poll in mid-october has never lost the election that has some meaning
Seek freedom and become captive of your desires...seek discipline and find your liberty I can tell if a person is judgmental just by looking at them what is chaos to the fly is normal to the spider - morticia addams If you're not upsetting idiots, you might be an idiot. - Ted Nugent
EAllusion wrote:The conservative "unskewed' polling BCSpace referenced earlier when he was pushing the polling conspiracy to explain Obama's lead when Romney secretly was way up now has Romney +21. +21
It's funny how both sides attack the polls when the numbers aren't what they want.
Actually both sides haven't. I certainly haven't, and I certainly don't see the Left Wing media attacking the numbers. FOX News freaked out and brought forth their false prophet Dick Morris, to explain how the numbers are lying to us. He says this same crap every election cycle and he is wrong every time, yet the Right Wing media keeps bringing him in because he says things they like to hear. The Right Wing media is like the Watchtower magazine and the Conservatives are like the Jehovah's Witnesses. No matter how many times the second coming of Christ is predicted and disproved, you look forward to the next prediction.
Kevin Graham wrote:Actually both sides haven't. I certainly haven't, and I certainly don't see the Left Wing media attacking the numbers. FOX News freaked out and brought forth their false prophet Dick Morris, to explain how the numbers are lying to us. He says this same s*** every election cycle and he is wrong every time, yet the Right Wing media keeps bringing him in because he says things they like to hear.
The Obama campaign and the left aren't complaining about polls? Really?
Either way, I was right when I said the OP was meaningless. The RCP poll has it back to 2009-190 for Obama.
Kevin, you are rapidly becoming the Democratic version of bcspace.
"It doesn't seem fair, does it Norm--that I should have so much knowledge when there are people in the world that have to go to bed stupid every night." -- Clifford C. Clavin, USPS
"¡No contaban con mi astucia!" -- El Chapulin Colorado
Bob Loblaw wrote:The RCP poll has it back to 2009-190 for Obama.
Now that's what I call an Obama lead.
Whatever appears to be against the Book of Mormon is going to be overturned at some time in the future. So we can be pretty open minded.-charity 3/7/07
MASH quotes I peeked in the back [of the Bible] Frank, the Devil did it. I avoid church religiously. This isn't one of my sermons, I expect you to listen.
Bob Loblaw wrote:The RCP poll has it back to 2009-190 for Obama.
Now that's what I call an Obama lead.
Whoops. Shouldn't have had that second Long Island Iced Tea. 209-190.
"It doesn't seem fair, does it Norm--that I should have so much knowledge when there are people in the world that have to go to bed stupid every night." -- Clifford C. Clavin, USPS
"¡No contaban con mi astucia!" -- El Chapulin Colorado
Kevin Graham wrote:Actually both sides haven't. I certainly haven't, and I certainly don't see the Left Wing media attacking the numbers. FOX News freaked out and brought forth their false prophet Dick Morris, to explain how the numbers are lying to us. He says this same s*** every election cycle and he is wrong every time, yet the Right Wing media keeps bringing him in because he says things they like to hear.
The Obama campaign and the left aren't complaining about polls? Really?
Either way, I was right when I said the OP was meaningless. The RCP poll has it back to 2009-190 for Obama.
Kevin, you are rapidly becoming the Democratic version of bcspace.
You're middle link doesn't involve any complaining about polls. It's a charge, pretty conclusively backed up in that case, that the Romney campaign is trying to manufacture an aura of momentum/confidence to create a media narrative that will make that a self-fulfilling prophecy. You can already check off the first two steps in that 3 step plan, so we'll see how that goes.
The other two are the Obama campaign complaining about two distinct polls that have some outlier internals. That partially counts, but is obviously distinct from inaccurately trying to discredit the aggregate of polling itself. The Obama camp probably would do that if they fell behind in sophisticated metanalyses, but they haven't yet.
Polling outfits are doing an increasingly terrible job reaching an increasingly large portion of the population that only has cell phones. That demographic leans strongly Democrat. Of course, polling firms aren't run by idiots. Well, most of 'em aren't. They're well aware of the problem and have been attempting to compensate with various statistical tools.
If Obama were to go from a slight favorite to a slight underdog, I'd wager that Democrats would start pushing the cell phone problem heavily in the media.
EAllusion wrote:Polling outfits are doing an increasingly terrible job reaching an increasingly large portion of the population that only has cell phones. That demographic leans strongly Democrat. Of course, polling firms aren't run by idiots. Well, most of 'em aren't. They're well aware of the problem and have been attempting to compensate with various statistical tools.
If Obama were to go from a slight favorite to a slight underdog, I'd wager that Democrats would start pushing the cell phone problem heavily in the media.
Agreed. Really, the only poll that matters is the ballot box. Whoever wins, it will be by a very narrow margin, both in the popular vote and the electoral collage.
"It doesn't seem fair, does it Norm--that I should have so much knowledge when there are people in the world that have to go to bed stupid every night." -- Clifford C. Clavin, USPS
"¡No contaban con mi astucia!" -- El Chapulin Colorado
Bob Loblaw wrote: Whoops. Shouldn't have had that second Long Island Iced Tea. 209-190.
Looks like they moved North Carolina into the Toss Up column. I don't know why. Their poll shows Romney at 50% with a 5 point lead. I think the biggest concern for Obama is he is below 48% in most of the battleground states. Everything I read says that historically, at this late stage, the vast majority of undecideds will vote for the challenger. Obama really needs to be at 50% in these battleground polls at this late stage.
"We have taken up arms in defense of our liberty, our property, our wives, and our children; we are determined to preserve them, or die." - Captain Moroni - 'Address to the Inhabitants of Canada' 1775
DarkHelmet wrote:Looks like they moved North Carolina into the Toss Up column. I don't know why. Their poll shows Romney at 50% with a 5 point lead. I think the biggest concern for Obama is he is below 48% in most of the battleground states. Everything I read says that historically, at this late stage, the vast majority of undecideds will vote for the challenger. Obama really needs to be at 50% in these battleground polls at this late stage.
Generally, that is true. I'm not convinced the polls are particularly accurate, given that they've been all over the map. Could be a late night on November 6.
"It doesn't seem fair, does it Norm--that I should have so much knowledge when there are people in the world that have to go to bed stupid every night." -- Clifford C. Clavin, USPS
"¡No contaban con mi astucia!" -- El Chapulin Colorado
