The 2012 Election

[_Bob Loblaw]

Yeah I think it's more likely your prediction of 281-257 is most likely but all of those states (even North Carolina was called a tie in a poll today by PPP) are basically coin flips from the polling. Real Clear Politics leans Republican and Pollster leans Democrat. In the end they about cancel themselves out and lead to...a stupid coin flip.

Pretty much. The trend in general has been toward Romney, but it looks like it's stopped, with Obama still leading where he needs to lead.

[_Bond James Bond]

Obama voted early today, the first President to ever vote before election day.

I also learned that he carries one of those little card holders and not a wallet. I wonder about things like that. Does Obama carry cash? Does he normally carry his ID? Does he have his Costco card handy? Hmmm.

[_Bob Loblaw]

And for the record, I still think it will be 281-257 for Obama. Who knows with Ohio? Early voting in GOP-leaning districts is 10 points higher than in Democratic-leaning districts in Ohio, which ought to be sobering news to the Obama campaign.

[_moksha]

And for the record, I still think it will be 281-257 for Obama.

Oh yeah? After the elections, we will all offer praise to the Mitt who communes with the Caymans.

[_Brackite]

Real Clear Politics has California as an Obama lock with an average of four polls showing Obama at 57.8% to 34.3%.

Relevant link:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -2009.html

Real Clear Politics now has Obama's lead shrinking a bit over Romney in California which is now at 54.3% to 38.0% I believe that this increases the chances of Romney winning the Popular vote, but still losing the Electoral college.

[_beastie]

Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, and Colorado look to have moved to Romney.

Nevada and Wisconsin appear to be safe for Obama.

Iowa, New Hampshire, and Ohio are anybody's guess.

I'd say your original prediction is unlikely (332-206 or 303-235). Of course, if I had made a prediction on September 28, I would have said much the same.

This is where it gets interesting. How much of a swing can there be in the next 12 days? Assuming both candidates keep doing what they're doing and there aren't any huge surprises, does Romney have enough momentum to win?

I honestly didn't expect Romney to be doing this well, or Obama to be doing this poorly.

I'm curious about this. Normally, when the incumbant had approval ratings below 50 (which Obama did at the beginning of the election cycle) and unemployment at 8%, conventional wisdom is that the challenger will win. Why did you have such low expectations for Romney?

[_Brackite]

But on another subject, I would love to see the Rom-bot win the popular vote by a significant margin, but lose the election by getting fewer electoral votes.

The only way I would anticipate a serious move to get rid of the antiquated joke that is the Electoral College is for that to happen to a Republican.

The Gallup Poll among registered voters now has Romney at 48%, and it now has Obama at 48%.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/150743/Obama-Romney.aspx


The Gallup Poll among likely voters now has Romney at 51%, and it now has Obama at 46%.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/157817/elect ... omney.aspx


in my opinion, the Gallup Poll among registered voters is a little bit more accurate than the Gallup Poll among likely voters. I believe that Romney is up at about 2% over Obama Nationwide right now. However, Romney is still not winning in the Polls of the few crucial swing States that he needs to win in order to win the Electoral college. It looks like now that it is probably likely that Romney will win the Popular vote while still losing the Electoral college.

[_krose]

I honestly didn't expect Romney to be doing this well, or Obama to be doing this poorly.

I'm curious about this. Normally, when the incumbant had approval ratings below 50 (which Obama did at the beginning of the election cycle) and unemployment at 8%, conventional wisdom is that the challenger will win. Why did you have such low expectations for Romney?

Yup. Last year the polls running "generic Republican" against Obama showed him losing by a significant margin. The problem is that none of them were generic enough. They all had names and records and low levels of likability.

[_beastie]

Geez, I just saw that I misspelled incumbent. It hurts my eyes.

[_cinepro]

I'm curious about this. Normally, when the incumbent had approval ratings below 50 (which Obama did at the beginning of the election cycle) and unemployment at 8%, conventional wisdom is that the challenger will win. Why did you have such low expectations for Romney?

I just remember the amount of "energy" there was for Obama last time round. The songs, the iconography, the stadiums. There was a huge amount of love and support. I even teared up (for joy) the night he was elected, because even though he was a Democrat and I hadn't voted for him, I was overwhelmed to see our first black president. It was a huge historical moment.

I also haven't been effected with the same loathing and disdain that many other conservatives have towards him. While I almost totally disagree with him politically, I still really like the guy. I know people who can't stand the way he walks and talks and have a real personal revulsion for him, but I just don't have a problem with him on that level.

On the other hand, Romney just doesn't do much for me. And as a white, middle class, conservative Mormon, that has always really worried me. If Romney can't connect with me, then what does that mean for everyone else. I respect him and think he would be a much better president, but there just isn't that "spark". And as I told my brother-in-law four years ago, I firmly believed that for the Republicans to win in 2012 they would need a "certified rock star".

Romney is many things, but he's not a rock star. So while I understand all the statistics and data that argue why Romney "should" win, if he doesn't, I'll always argue that it was because he just couldn't connect.