Giants Win!!! Obama Wins!!!

[_MeDotOrg]

All statistical correlations are factual, or as Mark Twain observed, "figures don't lie, but liars figure." In a tight election like this, we need to look beyond the conflicting results of polls to tried-and-true methods of political prognostication:

Between now and Nov. 6, no shortage of polls and pundits will attempt to predict the big winner on Election Day — Democratic incumbent President Barack Obama or Republican challenger Mitt Romney. Some such indicators will claim to be scientific, others will not. These fall into the latter category.

The height factor

The theory: The taller of the two presidential candidates will win the election.

Accuracy: The taller candidate has won 19 times and lost eight in presidential elections dating to 1896, according to a New York Times analysis conducted in 2008. (Two elections featured presidential candidates of the same listed height — Bill Clinton vs. George H.W. Bush in 1992, and Woodrow Wilson vs. Charles E. Hughes in 1916).
This year: President Barack Obama is 6 feet 1 inch tall; challenger Mitt Romney reportedly is 6-foot-2.

Resulting prediction: Romney

The Redskins Rule

The theory: If the NFL's Washington Redskins win their last home game played before the presidential election, the incumbent party will win the election. If the team loses that game, the incumbent party loses.

Accuracy: The rule has held true in 17 of 18 cases, with only 2004 an exception — though some proponents of the Redskins Rule argue that because the 2004 incumbent, George W. Bush, had not won the popular vote in 2000, the rule still held.

This year: The Redskins play the Carolina Panthers at home on Sunday, Nov. 4, two days before the election.

Resulting prediction: TBD

The World Series factor

The theory: If an American League team wins baseball's World Series, the Republican candidate will win the election. If a National League team prevails, so does the Democratic candidate.

Accuracy: The rule has held true in 11 of 15 elections since 1952 — including the last three — but in only 15 of 26 overall.

This year: The World Series is scheduled to end no later than Nov. 1, featuring the American League's Detroit Tigers versus the St. Louis Cardinals or San Francisco Giants of the National League.

Resulting prediction: TBD (UPDATE:Giants Won - Obama wins)

The 7-Election

The theory: The coffee cup color selected by more customers at 7-Eleven locations will predict the winner of the election — more blue cups taken, the Democrat wins; more red cups chosen, the Republican prevails.

Accuracy: Cup selection has accurately predicted the outcome of every presidential election since the promotion was introduced in 2000, the convenience store chain says.

This year: Customers have grabbed blue cups 59 percent of the time and red cups 41 percent, according to 7-Eleven.

Resulting prediction: Obama

The masks

The theory: The party with the better-selling Halloween masks of its nominees on buycostumes.comwill win the election.

Accuracy: The mask vote has accurately predicted the outcome of each presidential election since 2000, according to buycostumes.com.

This year: The masks of Obama and Vice President Joe Biden have been chosen by 52 percent of voters to 48 percent for Romney and his running mate, Paul Ryan.

Resulting prediction: Obama

The Lakers law

The theory: If the Los Angeles Lakers reach the NBA Finals in an election year, the Republican candidate will win the presidency.

Accuracy: The Republican has won on eight of nine such occasions — in 1952 (as the Minneapolis Lakers), 1968, 1972, 1980, 1984, 1988, 2000 and 2004. The lone exception? Obama's win over John McCain in 2008.

This year: The Lakers did not reach the NBA Finals.

Resulting prediction: This indicator does not apply ... but you might want to keep an eye on those Redskins.

rmanker@tribune.com

Twitter: @RobManker

[_beastie]

Here's my personal favorite: Scholastic News, the school-based magazine for children.

http://www.scholastic.com/browse/article.jsp?id=3757611

The kids have spoken! The winner of the Scholastic Student Vote is President Barack Obama, the Democratic nominee, with 51 percent of the vote. The Republican nominee, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, received 45 percent of the vote, while 4 percent of kids voted for other people.

The Scholastic Student Vote invited young people under the legal voting age of 18 to cast their vote for President in a mock election. They could vote online at www.scholastic.com/vote or by mailing in paper ballots found in Scholastic classroom magazines. Almost a quarter million (250,000) students voted from August 15 until the online poll closed on October 10.

A majority of kids in four of five key swing states—Colorado, Florida, Nevada, and Ohio—chose Obama. A swing state is a state where neither candidate has a strong majority in the polls. Romney won Virginia, the other key swing state, by a small margin. In a close race like this one, the voting outcomes in these states can ultimately determine who wins the general election.

Check out our results page for a pie graph, an interactive map, and a state-by-state chart.

A GOOD PREDICTOR?

The Scholastic Student Vote may not be official, but its results have often indicated who eventually wins the presidential race. Scholastic has conducted the student mock vote during every presidential election since 1940. The results of the student vote have mirrored the actual outcome of all but two elections—1948, when kids voted for Thomas E. Dewey over Harry S. Truman, and 1960, when they selected Richard M. Nixon over John F. Kennedy.

[_Bob Loblaw]

The Scholastic poll is usually accurate because it tends to fall along the lines of parents' voting preferences, which should mirror the electorate as a whole.

I don't know what to make of this year's polls. Romney is way ahead with independents (20 points or so), and Republican turnout looks to be higher than Democratic turnout. But the polls still show Romney behind. Part of it may be oversampling of Democrats, such as in the latest NPR poll, which has Obama ahead by 4 in swing states, but the sample was 48% Democratic and 40% Republican, which seems a tad off to me.

I still predict Obama wins a close election.

[_beastie]

The Scholastic poll is usually accurate because it tends to fall along the lines of parents' voting preferences, which should mirror the electorate as a whole.

I don't know what to make of this year's polls. Romney is way ahead with independents (20 points or so), and Republican turnout looks to be higher than Democratic turnout. But the polls still show Romney behind. Part of it may be oversampling of Democrats, such as in the latest NPR poll, which has Obama ahead by 4 in swing states, but the sample was 48% Democratic and 40% Republican, which seems a tad off to me.

I still predict Obama wins a close election.

I read that party identification is pretty fluid, so isn't a factor that needs to be weighted like Rasmussen does. It may simply be that the voters who are going to vote for Obama self-identified as democratic, even if last time they would not have done so.

I also predict Obama wins a close election, but Hurricane Sandy may have thrown an unknown factor into the race as well. It will be a nail-biter, that's for sure.