The 2012 Election

[_bcspace]

And for the Droopy, BCSpace types, that counts as "liberal media" because it isn't just out and out Republican propaganda.

You think Rasmussen and Gallup are Republican propaganda?

[_EAllusion]

And for the Droopy, BCSpace types, that counts as "liberal media" because it isn't just out and out Republican propaganda.

You think Rasmussen and Gallup are Republican propaganda?

Rasmussen is a Repubican partisan source. Gallup is not. CNN does not have a general liberal bias. In its reporting of polling numbers recently, it actually has been pushing Romney friendly narratives. For instance, +5 Obama = tie and +5 Romney equal = Obama way down and in trouble. I attribute that more to incompetence in how it operates than malice. But nutters like you consider it part of the liberal media because it isn't straight propaganda ala rightwing media.

It's actually amazing how little legit statistics makes it on to the cable/network news shows when it comes to poll analysis. Silver is one of the very few who make it, and his story is that Obama is a heavy favorite. Humorously, of all the forecasters, he probably gives Romney his best chance at this point. If Romney wins, that's not even a particularly surprising outcome on Silver's forecast. It'd be like it raining when the weatherman says there's only a 20% chance of rain. Republican sources are trying to hammer Silver's credibility by painting him a far left faggot who manipulates numbers. They're trying to swing bandwagon effect voting their way, and Silver represents one of the few roadblocks in the way of that strategy.

[_cinepro]

I hadn't seen Silver's blog before, but it echoes what I've expected all along.

Hopefully we're both wrong.

[_bcspace]

Rasmussen is a Repubican partisan source. Gallup is not. CNN does not have a general liberal bias. In its reporting of polling numbers recently, it actually has been pushing Romney friendly narratives. For instance, +5 Obama = tie and +5 Romney equal = Obama way down and in trouble. I attribute that more to incompetence in how it operates than malice. But nutters like you consider it part of the liberal media because it isn't straight propaganda ala rightwing media.

I'd have to say that after perusing PEC and related sites and noting Sam's penchant for quoting far left sources and making a pretense of throwing in some conservative sources to look balanced that he's probably a left wing loon. At least those are the birds he flocks with.

Rasmussen may be conservative but he seems much more respected (feared in the case of the Left). The oversampling of Democrats by many polls is well documented and an aggregater like Sam might get closer but he's still including those data.

[_DarkHelmet]

The polls have been all over the place, and the polls in the battleground states are so close it is hard to predict this thing. One thing I would be worried about for Obama is that the polls seem to agree Romney is winning the independent vote. Romney is leading among independent voters by 16 points nationally, and virtually all the polls show him ahead among independents in Ohio. If the GOP is energized (which it seems to be), and comes out in big numbers, and Romney wins the independents, he could win.

[_bcspace]

All the trends favor Romney so far but it's still close. He's merely narrowed the gap or flipped states from 2 points down to 2 points up. As has been stated, unless things loosen up, it's going to depend on turnout. One PEC prediction that puts them deep into loon status is the 69% chance the House flips to the Democrats. I don't think anyone else thinks there's a snowball's chance of that.

October surprises are almost impossible now and not just because it's November. The Left's Gloria Allred tried and failed. The news about Menendez and his prostitutes is not going to work much for the Right even in that particular Senate campaign. Romney has about twice as much cash as Obama and they have said it will all be spent in these last few days in a huge blitz of ads and mailers. Big Labor has about 220 million, about as much as Romney and Obama combined, which they say they plan to spend. If this were a shooting war, there would be nothing left alive in any swing state.

I still think there's a reasonable chance we will see multiple Florida 2000's and if so, I predict a good chance of national unrest and rioting etc. as neither party will give way. At least I hope the GOP doesn't.

[_Molok]

I still think there's a reasonable chance we will see multiple Florida 2000's and if so, I predict a good chance of national unrest and rioting etc. as neither party will give way. At least I hope the GOP doesn't.

So, Bcspace would rather see national unrest and rioting than Republicans lose an election. Is there any doubt what your true religion is?

[_bcspace]

I still think there's a reasonable chance we will see multiple Florida 2000's and if so, I predict a good chance of national unrest and rioting etc. as neither party will give way. At least I hope the GOP doesn't.

So, Bcspace would rather see national unrest and rioting than Republicans lose an election.

Only if the Democrats are up to their usual shenanigans; endless recounts, losing and not counting ballots, etc. However, if they win above board the time for rebellion still comes that much closer.

Is there any doubt what your true religion is?

LDS doctrine teaches that freedom is worth fighting for. I think you'd agree.

[_Bond James Bond]

5 days! 120 hrs until the polls open! Please come and go quickly. I'm moving Iowa to Obama and North Carolina to Romney. Early voting in both states favors Obama in both states but in North Carolina they lagging much lower than they did for 2008. An intrepid blogger has compiled these numbers daily for North Carolina and while Obama has a lead of 140k votes it's much less than he did in 2008 in early voting. I think the election day turnout will push Romney over the top. I'll decide on Florida, Virginia, and Colorado soon.

North Carolina's numbers below (great information):

http://imageshack.us/a/img13/1609/day14chart.jpg

Safe Obama: 281
California-55 (2008 - Obama)
New York-29 (2008 - Obama)
Illinois-20 (2008 - Obama's home state)
Washington-12 (2008 - Obama)
Oregon-7 (2008 - Obama)
Massachusetts-11 (2008 - Obama)
New Jersey-14 (2008 - Obama)
Hawaii-4 (2008 - Obama)
Minnesota-10 (2008 - Obama)
Maryland-10 (2008 - Obama)
Michigan-16 (2008 - Obama)
New Mexico-5 (2008 - Obama)
Maine-4 (2008 - Obama)
Delaware-3 (2008 - Obama)
Connecticut-4 (2008 - Obama)
Vermont-3 (2008 - Obama)
Rhode Island-3 (2008 - Obama)
DC-3 (2008 - Obama)
Pennsylvania-20 (Obama-2008)
Nevada-6 (Obama-2008)
New Hampshire-4 (Obama-2008)
Ohio-18 (Obama-2008)
Wisconsin-10 (2008 - Obama)
*Iowa-6 (Obama-2008)

Safe Romney: 206
Texas-38 (2008 - McCain)
Tennessee-11 (2008- McCain)
Kentucky-8 (2008 - McCain)
Louisiana-8 (2008 - McCain)
Alabama-9 (2008 - McCain)
Mississippi-6 (2008 - McCain)
Alaska-3 (2008 - McCain)
Oklahoma-7 (2008 - McCain)
Kansas-6 (2008 - McCain)
Nebraska-5 (2008 - McCain)
North Dakota-3 (2008 - McCain)
South Dakota-3 (2008 - McCain)
Montana-3 (2008 - McCain)
Wyoming-3 (2008 - McCain)
Utah-6 (2008 - McCain)
Idaho-4 (2008 - McCain)
Georgia-16 (2008 - McCain)
West Virginia-5 (2008 - McCain)
South Carolina-9 (2008 - McCain)
Arizona-11 (2008-McCain)
Indiana-11 (Obama-2008)
Missouri-10 (McCain-2008)
*North Carolina-15 (Obama-2008)

Tossup: 100
Florida-29 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
Colorado- 9 (Obama) (Obama-2008)
Virginia-13 (Obama) (Obama-2008)

[_Morley]

I still think there's a reasonable chance we will see multiple Florida 2000's and if so, I predict a good chance of national unrest and rioting etc. as neither party will give way. At least I hope the GOP doesn't.

So, Bcspace would rather see national unrest and rioting than Republicans lose an election.

Only if the Democrats are up to their usual shenanigans; endless recounts, losing and not counting ballots, etc. However, if they win above board the time for rebellion still comes that much closer.

Part one in the series: "What's Wrong with America."