Kiplinger Letter on Who will Win the Election

[_Analytics]

The source I most rely upon for forecasts about what's going to happen in the world is the Kiplinger Letter. According to these severe Socialist hacks in their October 26 publication:

A bitterly split nation seems set to elect Barack Obama over Mitt Romney. This isn’t an endorsement, just straight talk about the probable outcome.

So there you have it.

[_Bob Loblaw]

The source I most rely upon for forecasts about what's going to happen in the world is the Kiplinger Letter. According to these severe Socialist hacks in their October 26 publication:

A bitterly split nation seems set to elect Barack Obama over Mitt Romney. This isn’t an endorsement, just straight talk about the probable outcome.

So there you have it.

That's my view, as well.

[_cinepro]

That's my view, as well.

Me too. I just hope the vote is close enough to inject some humility into the winner. The last thing we need is President who feels like he's been given a "mandate" in a landslide.

Then again, if Obama wins, we already know there's things a lame-duck President can do once he's been re-elected that he couldn't do before. Should be fun!

[_Bob Loblaw]

Me too. I just hope the vote is close enough to inject some humility into the winner. The last thing we need is President who feels like he's been given a "mandate" in a landslide.

Then again, if Obama wins, we already know there's things a lame-duck President can do once he's been re-elected that he couldn't do before. Should be fun!

I've never been an enthusiastic supporter of Romney, and he's run the kind of shape-shifting campaign I expected. But I have to say that this election has really lowered my estimation of Barack Obama. At least in 2008 he was something of an inspirational figure, but now he's just a petty little politician. Disappointing.

[_Yoda]

I don't think it is over for Romney yet.

[_Bob Loblaw]

I don't think it is over for Romney yet.

I do.

[_bcspace]

I don't think it is over for Romney yet.

In 2008, Obama had a turnout that was +7 for Democrats. He won independents by 8. He won Catholics by 9.

Currently, Romney leads among independents and he also leads among Catholics by 14. Obama had led Catholics by 15 in September. This is why Romney is in play in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Minnesota.

For Obama to win, he must have a 2008 turnout and even then it will be very close. No, it's not over. It would even be baseless to say, if Obama wins and no matter the margin, "I told you so" because it was impossible to know.

[_Bob Loblaw]

For Obama to win, he must have a 2008 turnout and even then it will be very close. No, it's not over. It would even be baseless to say, if Obama wins and no matter the margin, "I told you so" because it was impossible to know.

There would be no gloating from me, but my gut feeling is that Romney peaked a couple of weeks ago and has faded since.

[_bcspace]

Romney leads among independents by double digits nationally according to the latest CBS poll (which skews heavily Democrat). 21 points in VA, for example, only 5-6 points in OH and Florida but it is enough. If that holds true through election day, Romney wins popular and electorate no matter what election turnout model is used.

[_bcspace]

You have to realize that the Quinnipiac Ohio poll showing Obama with a 5pt. lead that the DailyKOS is crowing about had to be juiced with a Democratic turnout assumption that was higher than the 2008 reality in order to generate that result.