Kiplinger Letter on Who will Win the Election

[_Jason Bourne]

I think an Obama win is likely as well. But it is very close. I won't be surprised if Romney does win. For those who like to watch elections it may be into the wee hours of the morning till we really know. And we may have more than one 2000 Florida. Maybe not. Who knows for sure?

[_subgenius]

lately i am of the mind that the election results will not be a close as predicted...the one thing that has been reliable is that pundits and polls are seldom conclusive.
Romney pulls a shocking upset.
why?
because the republicans are invigorated just as much as the democrats...but many democrats have defected due to the lack of change, and many pot smoking college students are going to enhance the Nader effect this time around.


(and for what it is worth, if either wins by just the smallest of margins they will undoubtedly announce that the results are a mandate form the American people.)

[_EAllusion]

because the republicans are invigorated just as much as the democrats...but many democrats have defected due to the lack of change, and many pot smoking college students are going to enhance the Nader effect this time around.

1) Jill Stein is going to get no where near the votes Nader got. You're up in the night if you think otherwise
2) Gary Johnson is the third party candidate that will get the most votes. In most, though not all, areas he's more likely to pull support from Romney than Obama. (Colorado and Nevada are the two most notable exceptions.)

[_Brackite]

1) Jill Stein is going to get no where near the votes Nader got. You're up in the night if you think otherwise
2) Gary Johnson is the third party candidate that will get the most votes. In most, though not all, areas he's more likely to pull support from Romney than Obama. (Colorado and Nevada are the two most notable exceptions.)

You are basically right there.

Up in smoke: How Gary Johnson and a Colorado marijuana initiative could cost Obama the election:
http://news.yahoo.com/up-in-smoke-how-g ... ction.html

[_bcspace]

lately i am of the mind that the election results will not be a close as predicted...the one thing that has been reliable is that pundits and polls are seldom conclusive.
Romney pulls a shocking upset.
why?
because the republicans are invigorated just as much as the democrats...but many democrats have defected due to the lack of change, and many pot smoking college students are going to enhance the Nader effect this time around.

In early voting, Democrats are down 130,000 votes in Ohio from this time in 2008. Repubs up 20,000 If I recall correctly. Plus Repubs have been targeting new voters for early voting, keeping the traditional voter base for election day. In other words, we may see that the Democrats have been cannibalizing their existing and shrinking base whereas Republicans have created a wealth of voters.

[_cinepro]

In early voting, Democrats are down 130,000 votes in Ohio from this time in 2008. Repubs up 20,000 If I recall correctly.

What's your source for that?

As one Obama guy says in this story:

"It's not about whether or not they're doing better than John McCain did," said Jeremy Bird, Obama's national field director. "It's about whether or not they're doing better than us."

Read more: http://www.seattlepi.com/news/politics/ ... z2BCyAzGSL

[_bcspace]

In early voting, Democrats are down 130,000 votes in Ohio from this time in 2008. Repubs up 20,000 If I recall correctly.

What's your source for that?

Can't find the original. But see this:

220,000 fewer Democrats have voted early in Ohio compared with 2008. And 30,000 more Republicans have cast their ballots compared with four years ago. That is a 250,000-vote net increase for a state Obama won by 260,000 votes in 2008

Here's two showing Obama down in Cleveland, a Democratic stronghold:

http://washingtonexaminer.com/morning-examiner-obama-down-heavily-from-2008/article/2512407#.UJYEYobhfiA

http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/332266/early-vote-down-15-percent-cleveland-cincinnati

I believe you'll find, as you check the stats, turnout in nearly all Democrat strongholds in swings states is down significantly.

"It's not about whether or not they're doing better than John McCain did," said Jeremy Bird, Obama's national field director. "It's about whether or not they're doing better than us."

Sure. But the bottom line is the Republicans are doing better in early voting this year than in 2008 and Obama is doing significantly worse in early voting than he did in 2008.

by the way, Minnesota is now a toss up state with Romney within the margin of error:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/11/aff-poll-minnesota-a-tossup-148296.html