Uncle Dale wrote:When Utah Mormons drive up across the Idaho border
to purchase cases of that state's stronger alcohol content
beer,
And lottery tickets.
Uncle Dale wrote:When Utah Mormons drive up across the Idaho border
to purchase cases of that state's stronger alcohol content
beer,
DrW wrote:Tobin wrote:Occam's razor is only reasonable given all claims being equal. .
According to your earlier post you obviously think that the scientific narrative and your "science fiction" scenario are on an equal footing in terms of credibility of the claims being made.
Of course they are not. But if you cannot see that the relevant data support the science narrative, then at least you can apply Occam's razor and realize how many more contingencies (assumptions) are required for the science fiction scenario as compared to the scientific narrative.
Tobin wrote: ...
I don't think there is much difference between my positions and the views held by many scientists. Many scientists believe there is life outside our biosphere and are spending considerable amounts of public money in search of it. I believe this is correct.
Tobin wrote:However, I don't believe it is only simple lifeforms that exist beyond our biosphere, but higher orders of intelligent being as well.
This is entirely consistent with our understanding of evolution and technological (and knowledge) progress that our species has experienced. To assert that it is very likely that our planet is not unique as far as life and intelligent life is concerned is perfectly reasonable and stating that any intelligent life that evolved billions of years ago would be transcendent in comparison to ourselves (given our current rate of technological progress) is also very reasonable.
Tobin wrote:Now, you assert that such views are not reasonable and science fiction. However, I think you are in the minority with that view. The only step I go beyond that is to state that I believe that what many have experienced in the past (and some experience now) are these higher order beings communicating with us. That has not been definitively proven, but is an area of belief. I do not view this belief as being unreasonable or ultimately futile and believe in the future that this will be shown to be correct as well.
Chap wrote:...
Such real evidence as there is about the duration of the existence of a species as intelligent as humans points to homo sapiens having been around for less than half a million years. It currently seems quite possible that we may shortly succeed in rendering ourselves extinct.
...
Uncle Dale wrote:Chap wrote:...
Such real evidence as there is about the duration of the existence of a species as intelligent as humans points to homo sapiens having been around for less than half a million years. It currently seems quite possible that we may shortly succeed in rendering ourselves extinct.
...
One sobering possibility is that advanced societies
of lifeforms tend to concentrate great destructive
power in the hands (claws, tentacles, etc.) of a
few of society's members --- such that a single
terrorist is able to destroy an entire planet.
Short of that, perhaps a small group of selfish
members of the society gain the ability (by plan
or by circumstance) to destroy the lifespace of
entire planetary systems.
Add to that the natural tendency of dying stars,
meteors and comets to obliterate whole biospheres,
and there's compelling reason to believe that advanced
societies rarely survive long enough to develop space
travel and interstellar communications/engineering.
We here on earth may be nearing our statistical
point of no return, at which we are pretty much
doomed to go extinct. Mayan calendar, anyone?
I'd hoped that we'd last long enough to share
Shakespeare with the aliens -- but quite likely
we've over-stayed our time in this cosmos.
UD'
Tobin wrote:DrW wrote:I don't think there is much difference between my positions and the views held by many scientists. Many scientists believe there is life outside our biosphere and are spending considerable amounts of public money in search of it. I believe this is correct. However, I don't believe it is only simple lifeforms that exist beyond our biosphere, but higher orders of intelligent being as well. This is entirely consistent with our understanding of evolution and technological (and knowledge) progress that our species has experienced. To assert that it is very likely that our planet is not unique as far as life and intelligent life is concerned is perfectly reasonable and stating that any intelligent life that evolved billions of years ago would be transcendent in comparison to ourselves (given our current rate of technological progress) is also very reasonable.
Now, you assert that such views are not reasonable and science fiction. However, I think you are in the minority with that view. The only step I go beyond that is to state that I believe that what many have experienced in the past (and some experience now) are these higher order beings communicating with us. That has not been definitively proven, but is an area of belief. I do not view this belief as being unreasonable or ultimately futile and believe in the future that this will be shown to be correct as well.
DrW wrote:...
In fact, it is entirely possible that by the time we were to receive a signal
from a distant intelligent life, that life may no longer exist.
DrW wrote:Tobin,
I certainly agree that there are (much more likely than not) other intelligent lifeforms in the Universe. Some of them may well be much more advanced than us.
However, as I was forced to remind folks over on the MADBoard when they started mixing science and magic: there are Laws.
If these higher life forms are communicating with us, it is a slow process, especially if you are claiming any kind of two-way communication.
The nearest star is just over 4 light years away. The nearest (possibly) habitable planets that we know of are 20 to 40 light years away.
Since there is an absolute speed limit on he transfer of useful information of 3 x 10^10 cm/s (the local speed of light), the fastest possible communication link would require 4 years to the closest star and 20 to 40 years to the closest habitable planet - one way. For two way communication, one can double the time.
This mean if you were a young teenager (say 15 years old) with your brand new interstellar radio transmitter and special antenna, and sent a message to the nearest known habitable planet, you would be at least 55 years old when the answer came back. If the intelligent life happened to live in the outer reaches of this band (say at 40 light years), you had better teach your daughter how to run the equipment because it is unlikely you would be alive when the answer came back.
Since 1985 SETI has been searching at ever increasing sensitivity, selectivity and bandwidths for any kind of signals from space indicating intelligent life, using (for most of that time) best available technology. SETI is coming up to 30 years now, and still nothing.
Every year that passes on this project with no signs of intelligent life detected places more constraints on the best case scenario here.
Is intelligent life out there? The odds say yes. But the chances of us detecting it from Earth diminish each year.
We may be evolutionarily more unique than you imagine.
At some distance, it no longer matters, the intelligent life would be too far away even for reasonable two way communication, let alone a friendly personal visit.
In fact, it is entirely possible that by the time we were to receive a signal from a distant intelligent life, that life may no longer exist.
Tobin wrote:DrW wrote:Tobin,
I certainly agree that there are (much more likely than not) other intelligent lifeforms in the Universe. Some of them may well be much more advanced than us.
However, as I was forced to remind folks over on the MADBoard when they started mixing science and magic: there are Laws.
If these higher life forms are communicating with us, it is a slow process, especially if you are claiming any kind of two-way communication.
The nearest star is just over 4 light years away. The nearest (possibly) habitable planets that we know of are 20 to 40 light years away.
Since there is an absolute speed limit on he transfer of useful information of 3 x 10^10 cm/s (the local speed of light), the fastest possible communication link would require 4 years to the closest star and 20 to 40 years to the closest habitable planet - one way. For two way communication, one can double the time.
This mean if you were a young teenager (say 15 years old) with your brand new interstellar radio transmitter and special antenna, and sent a message to the nearest known habitable planet, you would be at least 55 years old when the answer came back. If the intelligent life happened to live in the outer reaches of this band (say at 40 light years), you had better teach your daughter how to run the equipment because it is unlikely you would be alive when the answer came back.
Since 1985 SETI has been searching at ever increasing sensitivity, selectivity and bandwidths for any kind of signals from space indicating intelligent life, using (for most of that time) best available technology. SETI is coming up to 30 years now, and still nothing.
Every year that passes on this project with no signs of intelligent life detected places more constraints on the best case scenario here.
Is intelligent life out there? The odds say yes. But the chances of us detecting it from Earth diminish each year.
We may be evolutionarily more unique than you imagine.
At some distance, it no longer matters, the intelligent life would be too far away even for reasonable two way communication, let alone a friendly personal visit.
In fact, it is entirely possible that by the time we were to receive a signal from a distant intelligent life, that life may no longer exist.
I think we are finding the universe isn't as limited as that. One proposed means of communication that breaks the spead of light is quantum entanglement which would allow instantaneous communication across an infinite distance. Also, even though the speed of light is limited, space-time has no such contraints. We are just beginning to understand the principles that govern space-time and it may be possible in the future to alter space-time itself. This would allow transit at speeds far in excess of the speed of light.
I would also note that I think the search for intelligent life via radio signals is unlikely to succeed. The spectrum is just too large and the likelihood that an advanced species would use such a slow means of communications over interstellar distances is remote. Even if they did broadcast radio signals at some point in their development, I question whether we could detect these signals at such great distances. And as you stated, even if we do find such a signal, intelligent life may not exist at the location any longer.
I find it much more likely that if there is intelligent life, it is already transcendent and has explored the universe using the means above. If that is the case, such life would already be aware of us and may be molding our development with the visitations and accounts that have been recorded. I believe at a certain point in our development, they will make themselves more generally known to us, provided we don't destroy ourselves as has been said by others.
Tobin wrote:And even though the speed of light is limited, space-time has no constraints.
DrW wrote:Tobin,
You should know that quantum entanglement cannot be used to transfer anything but quantum information. No useful information can be superimposed on the "signal". "Entanglement" can't even be used to transmit Morse code. If you read science instead of science fiction, you would know that. It is not a practical possibility because it is theoretically impossible. It is not allowed, even according to quantum mechanics.
There are Laws.
Tobin wrote:And even though the speed of light is limited, space-time has no constraints.
That isn't very hard to conceive of if you have even a basic understanding of the data from modern cosmology. For example, there are likely parts of our universe expanding away from us at faster than the speed of light, what that means is the light from those galaxies of stars that will never reach us. I'm actually stunned that someone like you wouldn't be aware that space-time is not constrained by the speed of light. If you knew anything about the big bang, you'd realize that space-time can expand dramatically faster than the speed of light. Your ignorance of this fact is staggering.DrW wrote:What does this even mean?
Why does space-time expand? What causes it? Why is this expansion accelerating?DrW wrote:What is it about "space-time" that you think we do not understand?
What equations and principles dictate and explain the expansion of space-time?DrW wrote:Do you think we don't know the appropriate equations?
Again, I'd like you to explain the expansion of space-time first and provide equations for it.DrW wrote:Do you think the equations we use are wrong?
It isn't a constant. Again, it is accelerating. Why is that?DrW wrote:Do you feel we don't have the right values for the constants involved?
No.DrW wrote:Are you talking about black holes or worm holes?