Jay Cost, Dick Morris, Unskewed Polls guy...

The Off-Topic forum for anything non-LDS related, such as sports or politics. Rated PG through PG-13.
_EAllusion
_Emeritus
Posts: 18519
Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2007 12:39 pm

Jay Cost, Dick Morris, Unskewed Polls guy...

Post by _EAllusion »

Will conservatives stop listening to them after an epic slap down by reality? My money is on no. This reminds me of doomsday cults that get even more loyal when prophecies fail.
_Analytics
_Emeritus
Posts: 4231
Joined: Thu Feb 15, 2007 9:24 pm

Re: Jay Cost, Dick Morris, Unskewed Polls guy...

Post by _Analytics »

EAllusion wrote:Will conservatives stop listening to them after an epic slap down by reality? My money is on no. This reminds me of doomsday cults that get even more loyal when prophecies fail.

I agree. BCSpace seemed genuinely surprised last night when reality slapped him in the face. He predicted that polsters heads would roll.

Not only will heads not roll, but BCSpace and folks like him will continue to listen to the same discredited sources because they tell him what he wants to hear. Some people can't handle the truth.
It’s relatively easy to agree that only Homo sapiens can speak about things that don’t really exist, and believe six impossible things before breakfast. You could never convince a monkey to give you a banana by promising him limitless bananas after death in monkey heaven.

-Yuval Noah Harari
_Kevin Graham
_Emeritus
Posts: 13037
Joined: Fri Oct 27, 2006 6:44 pm

Re: Jay Cost, Dick Morris, Unskewed Polls guy...

Post by _Kevin Graham »

Please don't exclude Karl Rove, who was on FOX all night last night insisting Romney wasn't really going to lose Ohio, even after FOX declared him the loser there. What ensued was a hilarious circus show where the host Megan Kelly, was running back to the decision room to see if the experts were paying any attention to Rove's logic, and if so, why didn't they heed his advice to stop saying Obama had won Ohio!

You have to watch these videos, especially the one at the end.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/0 ... 85817.html
_bcspace
_Emeritus
Posts: 18534
Joined: Mon Dec 04, 2006 6:48 pm

Re: Jay Cost, Dick Morris, Unskewed Polls guy...

Post by _bcspace »

Hindsight. Neither of you had any better reason before the election.
Machina Sublime
Satan's Plan Deconstructed.
Your Best Resource On Joseph Smith's Polygamy.
Conservatism is the Gospel of Christ and the Plan of Salvation in Action.
The Degeneracy Of Progressivism.
_Res Ipsa
_Emeritus
Posts: 10274
Joined: Fri Oct 05, 2012 11:37 pm

Re: Jay Cost, Dick Morris, Unskewed Polls guy...

Post by _Res Ipsa »

It's not hindsight when you test predictions against reality. Predictions based on math and science are more reliable than those based on denial. Whoda thunk it?
​“The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists.”

― Hannah Arendt, The Origins of Totalitarianism, 1951
_cinepro
_Emeritus
Posts: 4502
Joined: Sat Oct 27, 2007 10:15 pm

Re: Jay Cost, Dick Morris, Unskewed Polls guy...

Post by _cinepro »

Sorry BCSpace, but since Obama actually won, it would seem to indicate that the pundits who predicted he would win weren't doing so out of bias, but because they were good at what they do. And the polls weren't skewed after all; they actually indicated how people were going to vote.

Imagine that.
_Analytics
_Emeritus
Posts: 4231
Joined: Thu Feb 15, 2007 9:24 pm

Re: Jay Cost, Dick Morris, Unskewed Polls guy...

Post by _Analytics »

bcspace wrote:Hindsight. Neither of you had any better reason before the election.


What a strange thing for you to say. I would think if anybody, you would believe that superior analysis results in superior predictions. If not, why the hundreds of threads about how the proper analysis of the proper polls indicated that Romney was increasing his lead every single day?

As I said in the other thread:
analytics wrote:The source I most rely upon for forecasts about what's going to happen in the world is the Kiplinger Letter. According to these severe Socialist hacks in their October 26 publication:

Kiplinger Letter wrote:A bitterly split nation seems set to elect Barack Obama over Mitt Romney. This isn’t an endorsement, just straight talk about the probable outcome.

So there you have it.

I will continue to trust good sources and will continue to be right most of the time, and you will continue to trust your sources and to make excuses.
It’s relatively easy to agree that only Homo sapiens can speak about things that don’t really exist, and believe six impossible things before breakfast. You could never convince a monkey to give you a banana by promising him limitless bananas after death in monkey heaven.

-Yuval Noah Harari
_ajax18
_Emeritus
Posts: 6914
Joined: Wed Oct 25, 2006 2:56 am

Re: Jay Cost, Dick Morris, Unskewed Polls guy...

Post by _ajax18 »

Will conservatives stop listening to them after an epic slap down by reality?


Yes, if you mean believing that the Republican party can win an election again. I'm not sure I ever brought into that, just got caught up in the hope going on at Fox news. Nothing more I can do now than check the political weather, prepare best I can, adapt, and try to survive. I wish I could change my career. The market is so hard to predict and chase.
And when the confederates saw Jackson standing fearless as a stone wall the army of Northern Virginia took courage and drove the federal army off their land.
_MeDotOrg
_Emeritus
Posts: 4761
Joined: Sun Jun 17, 2012 11:29 pm

Re: Jay Cost, Dick Morris, Unskewed Polls guy...

Post by _MeDotOrg »

EAllusion wrote:Will conservatives stop listening to them after an epic slap down by reality? My money is on no. This reminds me of doomsday cults that get even more loyal when prophecies fail.


Remember that Rush Limbaugh said that if Romney lost, if would be the end of the Republican Party.

Dick Morris: I didn't see 'new' USA.

Scott Rasmussen:Drop of white vote percentage, increase in youth vote, lower senior turnout than expected.

Dean Chambers (Unskewed Pollster): Nate Silver was right and I was wrong.

Or you can just refer to my current signature line:

We do not see things as they are; we see things as we are. - Anais Nin

Also, Donald Trump has edited some of his tweets, deleting the call for revolution.
"The great problem of any civilization is how to rejuvenate itself without rebarbarization."
- Will Durant
"We've kept more promises than we've even made"
- Donald Trump
"Of what meaning is the world without mind? The question cannot exist."
- Edwin Land
_Kevin Graham
_Emeritus
Posts: 13037
Joined: Fri Oct 27, 2006 6:44 pm

Re: Jay Cost, Dick Morris, Unskewed Polls guy...

Post by _Kevin Graham »

Bob Beckel was on Fox News ten minutes ago and pointed out that not only were the polls incredibly accurate, but that the only two polls that got it wrong, Rasmussen and Gallup, were the polls Fox News focused on the whiole time.
Post Reply