Texas and Arizona

The Off-Topic forum for anything non-LDS related, such as sports or politics. Rated PG through PG-13.
_Themis
_Emeritus
Posts: 13426
Joined: Wed Feb 17, 2010 6:43 pm

Re: Texas and Arizona

Post by _Themis »

DoubtingThomas wrote:
Themis wrote:
We would need to see better data to see if there is a real trend toward democrats. I'm not American, but even I know that Bush had been Governor of Texas when he ran for President in 2000 and 2004. Should we not expect him to do better then other republican candidates who were not from Texas? And Trump was the worst candidate the Republicans could have picked.


Yes, Hispanic population is growing fast in Texas. Republicans seriously need to rethink their anti-abortion proposals.


You still need to show the Hispanic vote is stable or trending to the democrats. Also, Hispanics tend to be more religious then your average American, so anti abortion is an issue that may appeal to many Hispanics. It's usually issues like immigration that make them vote for democrats more the republicans.
Last edited by Guest on Tue Aug 01, 2017 3:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
42
_subgenius
_Emeritus
Posts: 13326
Joined: Thu Sep 01, 2011 12:50 pm

Re: Texas and Arizona

Post by _subgenius »

Themis wrote:
DoubtingThomas wrote:
Yes, Hispanic population is growing fast in Texas. Republicans seriously need to rethink their anti-abortion proposals.


You still need to show the Hispanic vote is stable or trending to the democrats. Also, Hispanics tend to be more religious then your average American, so anti abortion is an issue that may appeal to many Hispanics. It's usually issues like immigration that make then vote for democrats more the republicans.

While a near-majority of Texas Latinos leans Democrat, Tejanos identify with the Republican Party at a significantly higher rate than the average among Hispanics in the rest of the country
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/02/0 ... 47814.html

nevertheless, while Latino population is on the rise in CA and Texas we see that their share of voting population is diminishing, due to the increase being primarily among illegal/ineligible voters. So the Latino vote is less important in either of these 2 states...the Latino vote is way more important in Florida, Arizona, New Mexico and Nevada.
Seek freedom and become captive of your desires...seek discipline and find your liberty
I can tell if a person is judgmental just by looking at them
what is chaos to the fly is normal to the spider - morticia addams
If you're not upsetting idiots, you might be an idiot. - Ted Nugent
_The CCC
_Emeritus
Posts: 6746
Joined: Tue Nov 03, 2015 4:51 am

Re: Texas and Arizona

Post by _The CCC »

subgenius wrote:"as it is now" :lol:
Might as well move the goal posts, eh?


You're in waaaay over your gray little head. Best you save face now, knowwhatImean?


The Texas budget has been as it is now for several years you stupid Troll.
_DoubtingThomas
_Emeritus
Posts: 4551
Joined: Thu Sep 01, 2016 7:04 am

Re: Texas and Arizona

Post by _DoubtingThomas »

Themis wrote:
You still need to show the Hispanic vote is stable or trending to the democrats. Also, Hispanics tend to be more religious then your average American, so anti abortion is an issue that may appeal to many Hispanics. It's usually issues like immigration that make them vote for democrats more the republicans.


Ye, look at "The Latino Vote in Presidential Races: 1980–2012"
http://www.pewhispanic.org/2012/11/07/l ... -election/

and

"Nearly 30 percent more Latinos in Texas voted in November than in the 2012 election, outpacing the increase in that time for non-Latino voters, according to a state report."
https://apnews.com/715e598a5ec942c6af60 ... urged-2012


In 2012 Republicans won Texas by a margin of 15.78%, in 2016 only by an 8.99%. However, more people voted for Trump 4,685,047 than Mitt Romney 4,569,843, that can only mean that Hispanics made a huge impact.

Colorado GOP rep declares: "The Republican Party is dead"
_subgenius
_Emeritus
Posts: 13326
Joined: Thu Sep 01, 2011 12:50 pm

Re: Texas and Arizona

Post by _subgenius »

DoubtingThomas wrote:
Themis wrote:
You still need to show the Hispanic vote is stable or trending to the democrats. Also, Hispanics tend to be more religious then your average American, so anti abortion is an issue that may appeal to many Hispanics. It's usually issues like immigration that make them vote for democrats more the republicans.


Ye, look at "The Latino Vote in Presidential Races: 1980–2012"
http://www.pewhispanic.org/2012/11/07/l ... -election/

and

"Nearly 30 percent more Latinos in Texas voted in November than in the 2012 election, outpacing the increase in that time for non-Latino voters, according to a state report."
https://apnews.com/715e598a5ec942c6af60 ... urged-2012


DoubtingThomas wrote:In 2012 Republicans won Texas by a margin of 15.78%, in 2016 only by an 8.99%. However, more people voted for Trump 4,685,047 than Mitt Romney 4,569,843, that can only mean that Hispanics made a huge impact.

No, it can also mean that more Hispanics voted for Trump and another demographic voted for someone else. Your claim is supposition and still does not address the "fact" that voting Hispanics are still a significant minority in Texas.

DoubtingThomas wrote:Colorado GOP rep declares: "The Republican Party is dead"

Oh, well if Colorado's GOP says so then why are we even talking about Texas?

25 Repubs to 11 Democrats in Federal House
95 Repubs to 55 Democrats in State House
20 Repubs to 11 Democrats in State Senate
No Democratic Senators, No Democratic Governor, No Democratic LT Governor, No Democratic Commissioners, No Democratic Comptroller, No Democratic Attorney General

The data just does not support your speculation
Seek freedom and become captive of your desires...seek discipline and find your liberty
I can tell if a person is judgmental just by looking at them
what is chaos to the fly is normal to the spider - morticia addams
If you're not upsetting idiots, you might be an idiot. - Ted Nugent
_DoubtingThomas
_Emeritus
Posts: 4551
Joined: Thu Sep 01, 2016 7:04 am

Re: Texas and Arizona

Post by _DoubtingThomas »

subgenius wrote:No, it can also mean that more Hispanics voted for Trump and another demographic voted for someone else.


Again.

Exit polls for Texas show: white 57%, latino 24%, black 11%. How is 24% not significant? To get white voters below 50% Latinos only need 8% points more. In Texas only 34% of Latinos voted for Trump. I think it was anti-Obamacare politics that saved Texas for the Republicans.
http://edition.cnn.com/election/results ... /president

So please explain how Trump got more votes than Romney in Texas, but won with a way smaller margin.
_subgenius
_Emeritus
Posts: 13326
Joined: Thu Sep 01, 2011 12:50 pm

Re: Texas and Arizona

Post by _subgenius »

DoubtingThomas wrote:
subgenius wrote:No, it can also mean that more Hispanics voted for Trump and another demographic voted for someone else.


Again.

Exit polls for Texas show: white 57%, latino 24%, black 11%. How is 24% not significant? To get white voters below 50% Latinos only need 8% points more. In Texas only 34% of Latinos voted for Trump. I think it was anti-Obamacare politics that saved Texas for the Republicans.
http://edition.cnn.com/election/results ... /president

So please explain how Trump got more votes than Romney in Texas, but won with a way smaller margin.

dude, your ignoring the real numbers...again, you have yet to resolve that while the Hispanic vote is increasing so is its percentage voting Republican. So, your "speculation" is rather near sighted because it assumes the white vote is static and that the increase in Hispanic vote is a proportional increase in each party line vote - but the data does not support your speculation as cited above. In other words, in Texas more Hispanic votes does not mean a critical mass of more Democratic votes.
Seek freedom and become captive of your desires...seek discipline and find your liberty
I can tell if a person is judgmental just by looking at them
what is chaos to the fly is normal to the spider - morticia addams
If you're not upsetting idiots, you might be an idiot. - Ted Nugent
_DoubtingThomas
_Emeritus
Posts: 4551
Joined: Thu Sep 01, 2016 7:04 am

Re: Texas and Arizona

Post by _DoubtingThomas »

subgenius wrote:dude, your ignoring the real numbers...again, you have yet to resolve that while the Hispanic vote is increasing so is its percentage voting Republican.


Dude, you have no evidence. In national exit polls 27% voted for Romney, 28% voted for Trump. One percent is within the margin of error, there is no difference.
http://www.cnn.com/election/results/exit-polls
http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/race/presiden

As for Texas, "The exit poll for Texas reported that 61 percent of Hispanics voted for Clinton and 34 percent for Trump. On its face, this seems implausible. Clinton won 560,000 more votes in Texas than Obama did in 2012. Moreover, voter turnout in Texas was two points higher this year than in 2012, and Hispanics are the fastest-growing segment of the Texas electorate. Is it possible that Clinton gained 560,000 votes in Texas while winning only 61 percent of Hispanic votes? Some analysts looking at county-level data think that rural Hispanic voters shifted toward Trump, as Geraldo Cadava argued, or that Clinton did worse with Hispanic voters than Obama, as Harry Enten argued. But counties can be large and, therefore, not well suited to learning about the behavior of subgroups like Hispanics........

Finally, we estimate that Clinton won 77 percent of Hispanics and Trump won 18 percent. These estimates strongly suggest that the exit poll estimates (61 percent to 34 percent) underestimate Clinton’s strength among Hispanics in Texas. The Latino Decisions exit poll in Texas — which reported that 80 percent of Latinos voted for Clinton and 16 percent for Trump — appears closer to the truth."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/mon ... f72a3ebac4
_DoubtingThomas
_Emeritus
Posts: 4551
Joined: Thu Sep 01, 2016 7:04 am

Re: Texas and Arizona

Post by _DoubtingThomas »

Even the Republican Bible admits "If Texas Goes Blue, Republicans Are Finished"

"Trends can be reversed but until they are, Republicans risk protracted losing in a center-left country, which America now is, and in a purple Texas, which soon could be" http://www.nationalreview.com/article/4 ... finish-gop
_DoubtingThomas
_Emeritus
Posts: 4551
Joined: Thu Sep 01, 2016 7:04 am

Re: Texas and Arizona

Post by _DoubtingThomas »

Washington Post reports, "The exit poll for Texas reported that 61 percent of Hispanics voted for Clinton and 34 percent for Trump. On its face, this seems implausible. Clinton won 560,000 more votes in Texas than Obama did in 2012. Moreover, voter turnout in Texas was two points higher this year than in 2012, and Hispanics are the fastest-growing segment of the Texas electorate. Is it possible that Clinton gained 560,000 votes in Texas while winning only 61 percent of Hispanic votes? Some analysts looking at county-level data think that rural Hispanic voters shifted toward Trump, as Geraldo Cadava argued, or that Clinton did worse with Hispanic voters than Obama, as Harry Enten argued. But counties can be large and, therefore, not well suited to learning about the behavior of subgroups like Hispanics........

Finally, we estimate that Clinton won 77 percent of Hispanics and Trump won 18 percent. These estimates strongly suggest that the exit poll estimates (61 percent to 34 percent) underestimate Clinton’s strength among Hispanics in Texas. The Latino Decisions exit poll in Texas — which reported that 80 percent of Latinos voted for Clinton and 16 percent for Trump — appears closer to the truth."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/mon ... f72a3ebac4
Post Reply