A federal grand jury has approved

[_EAllusion]

...the first charges involved in the Mueller investigation.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/27/politics/ ... index.html

In a not coincidental development, efforts to discredit Mueller and call for him to step down are starting to seriously ramp up in right-wing media as best I can tell.

Trump's gonna fire Mueller. If this was back when I used Intrade and there was a question on it, I'd lay heavy money down on it at this point.

[_Jersey Girl]

If he indeed fires Mueller, won't that lend more fuel to the obstruction of justice fire and push him closer to impeachment?

[_Res Ipsa]

I don't think he will fire Mueller. He'll try and tweet him to death, but he won't risk impeachment.

[_Res Ipsa]

If he indeed fires Mueller, won't that lend more fuel to the obstruction of justice fire and push him closer to impeachment?

I think so. The Congressional Republicans have put up with him because they think he'll rubber stamp whatever the pass. But at some point, he would simply become to big of a millstone around their necks. I think firing Mueller would result in them deciding to cut their losses.

[_EAllusion]

I don't think he will fire Mueller. He'll try and tweet him to death, but he won't risk impeachment.

I am deeply skeptical a Republican congress would impeach Trump, and I'm virtually certain the Senate won't get enough defections to convict regardless of how strong the evidence is or what the charges are. The Uranium One and Dossier funding stories that have simply dominated right-wing media this week are a small taste of how committed the machine is to defending him. The WSJ editorial board just called on Mueller to resign yesterday. I think Trump will have the overwhelming backing of right-wing media, which guarantees the backing of most Republicans.

[_EAllusion]

I think so. The Congressional Republicans have put up with him because they think he'll rubber stamp whatever the pass. But at some point, he would simply become to big of a millstone around their necks. I think firing Mueller would result in them deciding to cut their losses.

Trump is remarkably unpopular for a president lucking into some of the best employment news of the past 50 years, but he's still on track to be a slight favorite in the 2020 elections. I think you are drastically overestimating how much firing Mueller would be a millstone around his or his allies' neck. I think the average person barely recalls the firing of Comey. Yes, there would be an ugly news cycle. But the Trump admin has already done more profoundly scandalous things than any of us can individually remember and he's skating through it only marginally damaged. Republicans could simply count on short political memories and the power of their propaganda machine to carry them through and they probably would be strategically correct to do it.

[_Res Ipsa]

I don't think he will fire Mueller. He'll try and tweet him to death, but he won't risk impeachment.

I am deeply skeptical a Republican congress would impeach Trump, and I'm virtually certain the Senate won't get enough defections to convict regardless of how strong the evidence is or what the charges are. The Uranium One and Dossier funding stories that have simply dominated right-wing media this week are a small taste of how committed the machine is to defending him. The WSJ editorial board just called on Mueller to resign yesterday. I think Trump will have the overwhelming backing of right-wing media, which guarantees the backing of most Republicans.

I'm skeptical as well, but what I'm talking about is risk. I think Trump is like most bullies -- there's a coward lurking inside. He's established a pattern of talk big and back down. Talk big and back down. I don't think his ball are as big as Nixon's.

[_Doctor CamNC4Me]

I wonder if the 25th amendment is an actual possibility...

- Doc

[_Res Ipsa]

I think so. The Congressional Republicans have put up with him because they think he'll rubber stamp whatever the pass. But at some point, he would simply become to big of a millstone around their necks. I think firing Mueller would result in them deciding to cut their losses.

Trump is remarkably unpopular for a president lucking into some of the best employment news of the past 50 years, but he's still on track to be a slight favorite in the 2020 elections. I think you are drastically overestimating how much firing Mueller would be a millstone around his or his allies' neck. I think the average person barely recalls the firing of Comey. Yes, there would be an ugly news cycle. But the Trump admin has already done more profoundly scandalous things than any of us can individually remember and he's skating through it only marginally damaged. Republicans could simply count on short political memories and the power of their propaganda machine to carry them through and they probably would be strategically correct to do it.

I certainly could be overestimating, but I think "drastically" is a tad drastic, don't you think? It may be that the strong economy makes Trump a slight favorite in 2020, but to some extent we're in uncharted territory here. I think there are pretty good signs that republicans are becoming increasingly worried about Trump's unpopularity and the primarying of moderate GOP congresspeople with extremists that are more vulnerable to losing to a democrat. I think the ghost of Nixon and the Saturday Night Massacre are hovering at the back of many GOP minds, and firing Mueller could be the proverbial straw. Situations that look remarkably stable can unravel on the turn of a dime. And I think our current situation has significant potential for that.

[_Res Ipsa]

I wonder if the 25th amendment is an actual possibility...

- Doc

I don't think so, Doc. I think it was really intended for incapacitated presidents. If the Congress doesn't have the will to impeach, I can't see the cabinet stepping in to declare him incompetent.