Whither the GOP?

[_MeDotOrg]

Years ago, David Duke ran for the Senate in Louisiana in 1990, the Republican Party did everything to disavow his candidacy. The response to Roy Moore has been distinctly different.

Forget, for a moment, the idea of 33 year old Roy Moore picking up your teenage daughter after cheerleader practice. Consider that this man, in the 2nd decade of the 21st Century, participated in an educational class that said that you had a Christian duty to vote against any woman who ran for public office. Consider that in this very campaign, he told and African American man who asked when America was great, he said during slavery, because families kept together back then.

The GOP very much wants Roy Moore's vote in this razor thin Senate majority. They are willing to overlook certain things. But if Roy Moore is elected, he will be a six year pimple on the image of the GOP.

It strikes me that the GOP is being tactically smart and strategically dumb. They are holding on to their seat. They are supporting their President. They are shoving through their Tax Cut for the rich, which everyone pretty much admits is a prelude to slashing social programs. The GOP never cared about the trillion dollar hole, because they were going to use that hole as the justification to slash social programs. Of course, they are careful to say that they won't change existing retirees. They have to keep their older voters happy. And if Trump tweets out Anti-Muslim videos from a far right British Nationalist group, well that's just Trump being Trump, right?

But what happens when their older voters die? What happens when 13 million people lose their health care benefits? What happens in 2027 when the middle class sees their tax cuts expire while the corporations sail on with permanent tax cuts? What happens when the rhetoric from the Roy Moores of the Republican party land on the increasingly racially diverse ears of his fellow citizens? The GOP has made their wealthy donors happy, true dat. But as much as they can lie about the deficit, they cannot lie about its impact. Ultimately things will become apparent to some people that even if they hate the Democratic Party, the Republican Party winks at racism, lies about deficits, and tries to cover up election tampering by an enemy of the United States.

Years ago, Cadillac did a demographic study, which yielded good news and bad news. The good news was their customer base was very very loyal. They loved their Cadillacs. The bad news was that they weren't adding any younger customers, and within 20 years all of their current customers would be dead. That's when Cadillac started marketing to younger Americans who were buying BMW and Audi. Their cars got smaller, the suspensions got stiffer, and the styling got sharper. Shifters came off the column.

The GOP is kind of like Cadillac, selling to a group of old rich white people. They better wake up and do some demographic surveys.

=====

I will make a prediction, which is always fun because people can go back and make fun of it. But I think 2018 could very well be a watershed year, both in American and World history. It feels like 1918, 1939, 1968, like a whole bunch of historical currents are coming together. I'm not saying we're having a revolution, I hope and pray we do not. But it feels like a watershed year, like tectonic plates are shifting in American Politics. I'm not sure the Democratic and Republican Parties will be around in their current form in 2030.

Like Dylan's Mr. Jones, I know something is happening but I don't know what it is.

[_Maxine Waters]

They are shoving through their Tax Cut for the rich, which everyone pretty much admits is a prelude to slashing social programs.

New workers will get hammered with funding the debt and start to ask why am I stuck with providing for children I did not choose to have. They'll ask, who the hell is FICA and why are do they get 15% of my wages. There will always be politicians who tap into the campaign for workers rights who we now call conservatives. I really don't want GOP leaders not willing to slash and cut social welfare programs.

[_EAllusion]

They are shoving through their Tax Cut for the rich, which everyone pretty much admits is a prelude to slashing social programs.

New workers will get hammered with funding the debt and start to ask why am I stuck with providing for children I did not choose to have. They'll ask, who the hell is FICA and why are do they get 15% of my wages. There will always be politicians who tap into the campaign for workers rights who we now call conservatives. I really don't want GOP leaders not willing to slash and cut social welfare programs.

New Yorkers already pay out considerably more in taxes than the state takes in in order to fund relatively poor / poorly run states like Louisiana and West Virginia.

[_Maxine Waters]

Ultimately someone is going to have to pay for the welfare and interest on the national debt. Even taxing millionaries at 100% will not pay for Bernie Sanders free college. These taxes will inevitably create Republican voters out of working people.

[_EAllusion]

Ultimately someone is going to have to pay for the welfare and interest on the national debt. Even taxing millionaries at 100% will not pay for Bernie Sanders free college. These taxes will inevitably create Republican voters out of working people.

I'm not sure where you got the incorrect cost estimates of Sanders college plan from - probably Brietbart - but that's not correct. Personally, I think it is better to oppose programs like that with the truth. That's just me, though.

Your "soon New Yorkers will know what it is like to pay taxes for others" comment was kinda ridiculous given that they already pay out far more in taxes than they take in to support states you regard as superior.

Welfare is a relatively small fraction of the budget at this point. I know you use "welfare" to refer to any government program that doesn't involve police or military, but words have meaning.

[_Brackite]

Years ago, David Duke ran for the Senate in Louisiana in 1990, the Republican Party did everything to disavow his candidacy. The response to Roy Moore has been distinctly different.

Forget, for a moment, the idea of 33 year old Roy Moore picking up your teenage daughter after cheerleader practice. Consider that this man, in the 2nd decade of the 21st Century, participated in an educational class that said that you had a Christian duty to vote against any woman who ran for public office. Consider that in this very campaign, he told and African American man who asked when America was great, he said during slavery, because families kept together back then.

The GOP very much wants Roy Moore's vote in this razor thin Senate majority. They are willing to overlook certain things. But if Roy Moore is elected, he will be a six year pimple on the image of the GOP.

If Roy Moore gets elected as Senator, (which he will since Alabama is a deep red state), his Senate term will only be for about three years. Moore will have to run for reelection in 2020 if he wants a six year Senate term.

I don't really remember when David Duke ran for State Senator in Louisiana, but I do remember him running for Governor of Louisiana back in 1991. And I remember when President George H. W. Bush disavowed his campaign, and that President Bush basically stating that if he was in Louisiana, he would vote for David Duke's Democratic opponent instead.

[_Maxine Waters]

It wasn't a centrist/left leaning Republican candidate that won the white house back for Republicans when it seemed we would never have another Republican president again. It wasn't a candidate who embraced open borders and amnesty for illegal immigrants.

The Jeb Bush wing of the Republican party might be dying off. But there is a wave of rural middle class working voters of all races who are a part of the economic nationalist movement. This is what won the election in 2016.

[_Brackite]

It wasn't a centrist/left leaning Republican candidate that won the white house back for Republicans when it seemed we would never have another Republican president again. It wasn't a candidate who embraced open borders and amnesty for illegal immigrants.

The main reason why Trump won the White House back for the GOP was due to Hillary Clinton's baggage. Trump's margin of victory from the States of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin was smaller than Jill Stein's vote total within these three states. Trump would not have been able to have won the Presidency without those three states.

Edited To Add: And with regards to Wisconsin, Wisconsin now has a strict voter ID Law that went into effect during the 2016 general election that very likely prevented tens of thousands of people from voting.

[_beastie]

New workers will get hammered with funding the debt and start to ask why am I stuck with providing for children I did not choose to have. They'll ask, who the hell is FICA and why are do they get 15% of my wages. There will always be politicians who tap into the campaign for workers rights who we now call conservatives. I really don't want GOP leaders not willing to slash and cut social welfare programs.

Do you agree that the last time America was great was during slavery?

[_MeDotOrg]

It wasn't a centrist/left leaning Republican candidate that won the white house back for Republicans when it seemed we would never have another Republican president again. It wasn't a candidate who embraced open borders and amnesty for illegal immigrants.

The Jeb Bush wing of the Republican party might be dying off. But there is a wave of rural middle class working voters of all races who are a part of the economic nationalist movement. This is what won the election in 2016.

So you think what is going to save the Republican party is the growing percentage of rural voters, including non-white rural voters? 80% of Americans live in cities. That percentage is not shrinking. Whites voted 58/37 for Trump over Clinton, and Non-Whites voted 74/21 Clinton over Trump. All voters 18-29 voted 55/36 for Clinton over Trump. Keep in mind the GOP is also misrepresented proportionally because of gerrymandering. Long term demographic trends do not favor the Republican Party.