Russia Likely Did Swing Votes For Donald Trump

[_Analytics]

Allow me to comment on whether immigration--illegal or not--is good for the economy.

The question reminds me of an economic professor I had in an uperlevel microeconomics course back in the day. He was a visiting professor from India, and apparently it was a very big deal to Utah State that somebody of his stature was spending a year in Logan. I remember several things about the guy. First, he had awful teeth and gums. Looking at him talk was gross. But also, he was an extremely rigorous thinker. Calculus was often required to follow what he said--he wouldn't dumb anything down. He had a very thick accent, but spoke very deliberately, authoritatively, and passionately.

And he was the most ardent free-market capitalist I ever met. His lectures were amazing that way. He would set up a model with supply, demand, utility curves, and so forth, and would then point to the optimal solution. He would then give a specific real-world example that would illustrate the point, followed by a question of what would happen if the government interfered in the economy by imposing a minimum wage, a maximum price, a restriction on free trade, and yes, a restriction on immigration. Invariably, the restriction caused overall well-being to decline.

Frankly, I always thought his approach was a bit simplistic, but the tapestry the series of lectures made with such a wide variety of rigorous models was impressive: according to free-market principles, government interference is always bad.

Of course government interference can cause some people to be winners. For example, teachers will do better with government interference in terms of a government that strongly supports the teacher's union. If the union salaries, benefits, and protections are replaced with salaries based upon the free market, some will suffer. But you know what? They are totally free to get a job in a different field if they want to compete elsewhere.

In 2018 America, lazy, slow, incompetent white snowflakes have a really hard time competing with immigrants--illegal or not--who show up, work extremely hard, do amazing work, and don't complain. But if we interfered with the free market forces here by effectively protecting snowflakes by shutting down immigration--illegal or not--sure, the snowflakes would benefit. But overall production would go down. Buildings would be slower to build, more expensive, and lower quality. That is according to basic free-market forces.

So according to those same principles, if you are a half-way intelligent, disciplined, and hard-working individual, you have options. Maybe Mexican immigrants (illegal or not) do have a competitive advantage in constructuion. If you can't compete with them, allow them to have those jobs and do something else--become a computer programmer, an engineer, a master plumber, or a nurse. These other, better options exist in part because these other people are doing the construction that needs to be done.

Yes, maybe white construction workers made a decent middle-class living 50 years ago. But the hard-working, intelligent, and skilled people who chose to do that then might choose to do something else now. The economic pie is now bigger, and there are more choices. If you are a white guy with capabilities and really want to be in the construction business--you don't have to be a peon swinging a hammer. For example, you could become a master electrician. You'll have a huge advantage over the immigrants in this because of your native language and the color of your skin. And then you can hire whoever you want to be electrians working for you. And you'll probably find that immigrants are more reliable, more skilled, and harder working than the typical white american snowflake who thinks they are owed something because of where they were born and are patiently waiting on a politician to make their word great again.

[_Markk]

Markk -

Suppose you are a construction worker. It's a reach, I know, but follow me.

As a construction worker, you are making $25 an hour. Things are going fine, but along comes an immigrant who is willing to undercut you for $18 an hour because that's still much better than what they were making. Your boss says that while you are a little bit better of a worker, the difference in value is too much to pass up. You either take a pay cut or are laid off. Or, more realistically, while you keep your job, no one else is ever hired in at your rate and it is a legacy wages. Wages in your field are depressed due to increased labor competition.

Your son takes a look at this situation and thinks, "better not follow in Dad's footsteps." Instead, he becomes a computer programmer. Computer programmers make more money, but they do so - and this is key here - because what they do produces more marginal value than what a construction worker does. So if a person can be attracted into that field instead of construction work, then on average you're going to see some increase in wages. Meanwhile, because houses are now being built more cheaply due to a relative decline in the cost of labor, the wage your son is earning goes a little bit further because less of it has to be spent on building his house. And the coding that he is doing makes that product more accessible for construction workers like you. Good thing your son isn't like your neighbor's son. He dropped out of highschool and is doing menial labor in a field that has had its wages hurt a little by increased competition from immigration.

This is a simplification, but is roughly how it works. Studies that try to empirically look at what is happening find exactly that happening. The overall effect is small in the past 30 years or so. Meanwhile, because you have more active participants in the economy, the overall size of it is larger. This is relevant when things like how the power of your military is tied to a % of the total size of your economy.

What you are caught up on, badly, is the fact that since the 1970's wage growth for people not at the top have been fairly stagnant when you adjust for inflation. Wages themselves have gone up a lot, but so have prices. This fact doesn't mean immigration hasn't been a positive force on wage growth for certain people, nor does it make relative wage growth impossible to measure. You are struggling mightily to understand this, and end offering anecdotal observations that miss the mark as a result.

Awesome...LOL...why is that a reach? That is exactly what is happening, and not only in construction. However where you are wrong is that being a computer programmer is not necessarily a better paying job...a union carpenter/or prevailing wage rate in So Ca. makes around 41 dollars an hour with benefits 59 dollars and hour. (120K a year).. it is hard to say what a native would make in the private sector in that illegal have driven the market down so much. Yet, a immigrant makes anywhere from 10-20 dollars an hour on average on a private job. I google what a computer programmer makes on the average and it is 80K a year. So I do not see the logic in your argument. You would have to take each job or profession separately.

How does this not compute into taking jobs and lowering wages...are you saying natives in construction are not high school graduates or more? Give me a break.

You said this was a bad example..ok, I agree it is very poor for your side of the argument, in that it supports and confirms my argument. That said, give me a "good" example. Why does a high school teacher make more because of illegal immigration. Why does a clerk make more...or an airline pilot? Why do you make more...you should know that at the least.

If your argument were true, which unwittingly is on your end...in part. Do you really believe that is a good thing...immigrants taking jobs and forcing natives, whether white, brown, black or other... to find other professions? How many illegals have forced natives into jobs like data entry?

[_Analytics]

Why does a high school teacher make more because of illegal immigration. Why does a clerk make more...or an airline pilot? Why do you make more...you should know that at the least.

Say you are a clerk or an airline pilot, and you need to hire somebody to remodel you bathroom. In which universe would your dollars go further?

Universe A: This universe is highly regulated. Only licenced members of the union are allowed to fix bathrooms. (Taxes are high, because an army of government beurocrats are employed to enforce this rule.)

Universe B: This universe is also highly regulated. Only people who were born in certain cities are allowed to fix bathrooms. (Again, taxes are high, because an army of government beurocrats are employed to enforce the rule about who is allowed to work.)

Universe C: This universe subscribes to free-market principles. You are free to hire anybody you want to remodel your bathroom. People who want to be in the bathroom remodeling business fiercely compete to offer the best services at the best prices so that they win the job. The government doesn't interfere in the free transactions by saying who can work and who can't based upon what union dues you pay or where you were born.

The free-market argument is that Universe C is the best one for the clerk or pilot.

[_Res Ipsa]

Markk, you asked how it could. He showed you how it could. The example is fine in that respect. The key concept is that adding immigrants has many, many more effects than just the obvious ones you are focusing on. It all depends on the nature of lots of supply and demand curves. It’s like asking whether cutting taxes will result in increased tax revenue. The answer depends on the current economic conditions.

[_Markk]

For example, you could become a master electrician. You'll have a huge advantage over the immigrants in this because of your native language and the color of your skin. And then you can hire whoever you want to be electrians working for you. And you'll probably find that immigrants are more reliable, more skilled, and harder working than the typical white american snowflake who thinks they are owed something because of where they were born and are patiently waiting on a politician to make their word great again.

That is maybe the most ignorant thing I have read in a while. How can you have a huge advantage in a city like LA when English is fast becoming a second language? You have no idea what is happening do you? Bill boards are fast becoming written in Spanish.

Also, it is a myth that immigrants are all skilled and hard working...that is a joke. I help manage a company full of immigrants and huge percentage are lazy, unreliable, and most are not skilled at all beyond general labor. I hav eto tell them to put their phones down all the time. Some are very hard workers and some are very skilled...but most milk the system and the turnover rate is probably 25% or more after 3 or 4 months. I can't begin to tell you how far off you are on this, not even in the ball park.

And if you are "white" (which is bigoted in that there are a lot of Hispanics and blacks in So Ca that are not immigrants, that speak only English) and own a electrical company, and hire whom ever they want...how many contracts would you land..when you have high paid super hero's and are bidding against 15-20 dollar an hour electricians? In construction most often low bid get the project.

If you are white or black in So Ca, you have no advantage at all in many jobs, trades and professions, in fact the opposite. Immigrants actually alienate and sabotage young white and especially black workers that give it a shot...but hey... you know different based on a lecture you heard, in of all places Utah...unbelievable.

You need to come down to earth, your post supports my case here more than any other how people are so out of touch with reality.

[_EAllusion]

Awesome...LOL...why is that a reach?

Because it's a joke based on the fact that I know your line of work.

That is exactly what is happening, and not only in construction. However where you are wrong is that being a computer programmer is not necessarily a better paying job...a union carpenter/or prevailing wage rate in So Ca. makes around 41 dollars an hour with benefits 59 dollars and hour. (120K a year).. it is hard to say what a native would make in the private sector in that illegal have driven the market down so much.

I was making up numbers to illustrate an abstract point. You could say "flibberflarb" and it would've been as effective of an illustration.

Yet, a immigrant makes anywhere from 10-20 dollars an hour on average on a private job. I google what a computer programmer makes on the average and it is 80K a year. So I do not see the logic in your argument. You would have to take each job or profession separately.

Labor competition, from immigrants in this case, frees up people to do more productive things and drives down the cost of production.

I agree it is very poor for your side of the argument, in that it supports and confirms my argument.

[_Analytics]

That is maybe the most ignorant thing I have read in a while. How can you have a huge advantage in a city like LA when English is fast becoming a second language? You have no idea what is happening do you? Bill boards are fast becoming written in Spanish.

If there aren't enough English speakers left in L.A. for there to be a demand for electricians who speak English, move someplace else. I can assure you that most cities in America have many English speaking people--even if there aren't any left in L.A. Move to where the opportunity matches your skill set. That is how the free market works.

Capitalism isn't supposed to be easy. It is supposed to be competitive. Not everybody wins.

Just because you aren't very competitive in your chosen market doesn't mean the world would be a better place if the government steps in and tells customers who they can and cannot hire.

[_EAllusion]

Also, it is a myth that immigrants are all skilled and hard working...that is a joke. I help manage a company full of immigrants and huge percentage are lazy, unreliable, and most are not skilled at all beyond general labor. I hav eto tell them to put their phones down all the time. Some are very hard workers and some are very skilled...but most milk the system and the turnover rate is probably 25% or more after 3 or 4 months. I can't begin to tell you how far off you are on this, not even in the ball park.

Why do you keep hiring bad workers?

Caregiving is dominated by immigrant labor in my area, and the quality of work is sketchy in general from both immigrants and non-immigrants. I can explain why that happens. The pay is relatively low. The skill level demands at the entry point are low. People care very little about high quality services to the cognitively disabled, so demand is low and therefore labor price has to be low to remain competitive at what society is willing to pay for. The result is you get a sketchy labor pool. Immigrants who are acclimating to the United States and looking to develop their skills/resumes or get by end up filling some of the void. Turnover is astronomical.

So, again, why are you hiring bad workers? For all the headaches you describe, are they not getting the job done at a competitive price?

[_Markk]

Why does a high school teacher make more because of illegal immigration. Why does a clerk make more...or an airline pilot? Why do you make more...you should know that at the least.

Say you are a clerk or an airline pilot, and you need to hire somebody to remodel you bathroom. In which universe would your dollars go further?

Universe A: This universe is highly regulated. Only licenced members of the union are allowed to fix bathrooms. (Taxes are high, because an army of government beurocrats are employed to enforce this rule.)

Universe B: This universe is also highly regulated. Only people who were born in certain cities are allowed to fix bathrooms. (Again, taxes are high, because an army of government beurocrats are employed to enforce the rule about who is allowed to work.)

So how on earth do any of those scenarios effect what the clerk and pilot make...which was EA's assertion...that "clerks and pilots" make more becasue of illegal immigration.



Universe C: This universe subscribes to free-market principles. You are free to hire anybody you want to remodel your bathroom. People who want to be in the bathroom remodeling business fiercely compete to offer the best services at the best prices so that they win the job. The government doesn't interfere in the free transactions by saying who can work and who can't based upon what union dues you pay or where you were born.

The free-market argument is that Universe C is the best one for the clerk or pilot.

[_Markk]

Also, it is a myth that immigrants are all skilled and hard working...that is a joke. I help manage a company full of immigrants and huge percentage are lazy, unreliable, and most are not skilled at all beyond general labor. I hav eto tell them to put their phones down all the time. Some are very hard workers and some are very skilled...but most milk the system and the turnover rate is probably 25% or more after 3 or 4 months. I can't begin to tell you how far off you are on this, not even in the ball park.

Why do you keep hiring bad workers?

Caregiving is dominated by immigrant labor in my area, and the quality of work is sketchy in general from both immigrants and non-immigrants. I can explain why that happens. The pay is relatively low. The skill level demands at the entry point are low. People care very little about high quality services to the cognitively disabled, so demand is low and therefore labor price has to be low to remain competitive at what society is willing to pay for. The result is you get a sketchy labor pool. Immigrants who are acclimating to the United States and looking to develop their skills/resumes or get by end up filling some of the void. Turnover is astronomical.

So, again, why are you hiring bad workers? For all the headaches you describe, are they not getting the job done at a competitive price?

That is real easy to answer...because there is no way to know otherwise...do you think these illegal immigrants carry resumes and references? And reasons for turnover are for different reasons...they might find a prevailing wage job that will triple their income, or a cash job, even if for a few months. Or they do not have a reliable vehicle and can't get to work, their faux SS card catches up with them, they lied and cannot perform the way claimed, drug problems, flat out lazy, etc. Most simply implode for one reason or another, we actually do not have to fire many.

You have to remember there is little chance for promotion (raises) for most, in that they are not worth more than the market offers. It really upsets me when we do get a really skilled carpenter or tradesman and they quit becasue their is not room for growth. I just lost one of the most talented finish carpenter I have had in years because he wanted two more dollars and hour...he was making around 28 an hour and just maxed out. It is very competitive bidding, and overhead and burden is huge...if you give say a 4% raise each year to 140-200 workers a year, you would be out of business in three years.

So how do you make more as a care giver... because of illegal immigration?