Gadianton wrote:[quote=Mark"]Yes, and I said some wages go up and others down...I wrote each job or profession should be reviewed.
In the basic market model, if cheap labor enters then wages go down, no real need to review. We would never expect wages to go up. the idea is that the displaced resources reallocate elsewhere, and create goods and services that the economy previously did not have. These guys are basically saying: you've got a carpenter and electrician living in tents because they're spending all day gathering berries and hunting rabbits just to survive. Now suppose an illegal immigrant comes along and displaces the carpenter's berry-gathering gig. The berry wage falls drastically -- the electrician looks over those two baskets of berries, and isn't willing to trade a full rabbit. He'll let the two berry gatherers compete and the illegal is fine with a half-rabbit. So long, carpenter! But now that the carpenter can't compete in the berry market, he picks up a saw and starts building houses. Just need another illegal to come buy to hunt rabbits so the electrician can get some lights on.
It's really hard to argue with the classical model in its most basic thought experiments, but when you've got billions of people, multiple nations, currencies, governments, externalities, market frictions and ten other things, then does it really work out that way?
Mark wrote:That said manufacturing and warehouse...have gone down...and that is huge along with construction and transportation (delivery).
This is where the laundry list of others things matters. This is where empirical research comes into play, and there's been lots of discussions in this thread on various studies.
Many years ago I saw a H channel documentary on railroads and the "brakeman". This was a high paying, high risk job that put a lot of people to work, and when the steam brake came a long, a lot of jobs were lost. Should we have said "no" to the steam brake because of the hard working americans who would lose jobs? Obviously not, right? certainly, the wages for steam engineers went up. Certainly, the economy as a whole was better off even if many of those brakemen never got another comparable gig.
Now, let's look at the other extreme and open the borders all the way, and allow in a virtually inexhaustible cheap supply of labor in. Let's outsource the bulk of our middle class jobs overseas. Does our faith waver a little and we think about these other factors offsetting the benefits? I know mine does.
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Gad...we have a inexhaustible supply of cheap waiver...where do you live?
Don't take life so seriously in that " sooner or later we are just old men in funny clothes" "Tom 'T-Bone' Wolk"
Hawkeye wrote:Markk, in the 15 year period between 1990 and 2005 the number of illegal immigrants skyrocketed from 2 million to 10 million. During that same period wages increased.
How do you explain that?
Bruh, correlation is not causation....but facts and understanding of simple economic principles would likely help your posts on this topic. Except for the late 90s over the last 35 years have seen the vast majority of hourly wage lag far behind economy-wide productivity...typically an increase in productivity "causes" an increase in wages...but....that sort of "causation" can be dealt with from a policy position....for example, the fear of "full employment" bringing about an acceleration of inflation has basically displaced all of the economic growth that has occurred over the past several decades. Local government spending decreases are likely the most glaring manifestation of this policy. Monetary policy has a far greater influence on our economy and wages than immigration policy.
This is a popular theory. Monetary policy focused on keeping inflation low has never allowed the labor market to get very tight except for that brief period in the late '90's and maybe today, which has taken away the ability for labor shortages to drive up wages, and this is a major factor in relative wage stagnation since the late 1970's. The is when the Fed began its era of low inflation targets.
The thing is, this completely misses the point of the post you are responding to. On the other hand, it would've been something worth pointing out to Markk, which you did not do despite many openings to do so.
Markk wrote:In 1960 the average factory worker made 2.57 ( I could not find LA alone)...IN LA today the average factory job pays 11.54.
2.57 today adjusted is 20.37 and hour (google a inflation calculator)...how is that more buying power or higher wages?
Interesting span of time there. It introduces another component into this mix.
How much of this reduction of wages and buying power are the result of the manufacturing outsourcing trend that started in the early 80’s? There’s a phenomenon that could be blamed on ‘cheap labor’ outside our borders, with the switch initiated by and completely under control of company management and shareholders. No domestic illegals required.
Markk wrote:In 1960 the average factory worker made 2.57 ( I could not find LA alone)...IN LA today the average factory job pays 11.54.
2.57 today adjusted is 20.37 and hour (google a inflation calculator)...how is that more buying power or higher wages?
Interesting span of time there. It introduces another component into this mix.
How much of this reduction of wages and buying power are the result of the manufacturing outsourcing trend that started in the early 80’s? There’s a phenomenon that could be blamed on ‘cheap labor’ outside our borders, with the switch initiated by and completely under control of company management and shareholders. No domestic illegals required.
I am sure there are outlying factors, but like John Denver, some here are full of it.
Don't take life so seriously in that " sooner or later we are just old men in funny clothes" "Tom 'T-Bone' Wolk"
And so the cycle continues. You request information, information is presented, you ignore the information and then say everyone is full of crap. This is the third time you've simply ignored the data presented from the studies.
I'm still waiting for you to demonstrate correlation and causation on your assertion that "buying power is way down since the immigration flood."
All you keep doing is mocking highly educated people who have repeatedly proved your wrong.
You haven't responded to this directly, but it is a point of burning curiosity for me. A variety of economists have been cited expressing the opinion that you have by turns called the product of not having ever been to Southern California, living in your Mom's basement, being out of touch with the real world, not being able to make a basic inference that people willing to work for less depresses wages etc.
Do you think that's true of those economists? That they're a bunch of basement dwelling know-nothings who haven't come to your insights you managed to easily grasp with a few anecdotal observations and introspection? Why?
I'm not saying it is wrong to ever disagree with an expert on anything, but you're taking it a step further and describing a whole gaggle of them as lacking the thinking capacity of an average high schooler. I think that should be spelled out a little bit more.
Hawkeye wrote:And so the cycle continues. You request information, information is presented, you ignore the information and then say everyone is full of crap. This is the third time you've simply ignored the data presented from the studies.
I'm still waiting for you to demonstrate correlation and causation on your assertion that "buying power is way down since the immigration flood."
All you keep doing is mocking highly educated people who have repeatedly proved your wrong.
I just gave you statistics that show that both wages and buying power are down, by about half, since 1960. These are real stats.
If inflation adjusted wages show that factory workers are making about half they were in 1960 what does that indicate?
What do you do for a living Hawkeye? Where do you live?
You say they are highly educated people...maybe, but how do you know? You have only been here for a few posts, which suggests you are using a sock puppet...what name did you post under before hawkeye?
Last edited by Guest on Tue Mar 13, 2018 2:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Don't take life so seriously in that " sooner or later we are just old men in funny clothes" "Tom 'T-Bone' Wolk"
You haven't responded to this directly, but it is a point of burning curiosity for me. A variety of economists have been cited expressing the opinion that you have by turns called the product of not having ever been to Southern California, living in your Mom's basement, being out of touch with the real world, not being able to make a basic inference that people willing to work for less depresses wages etc.
Do you think that's true of those economists? That they're a bunch of basement dwelling know-nothings who haven't come to your insights you managed to easily grasp with a few anecdotal observations and introspection? Why?
I'm not saying it is wrong to ever disagree with an expert on anything, but you're taking it a step further and describing a whole gaggle of them as lacking the thinking capacity of an average high schooler. I think that should be spelled out a little bit more.
EA, you simply do not have a understanding of the real world, and what immigration is doing here in so cal and moving to other parts of the country. a piece of paper cannot possible explain that.
I have asked you many time to explain to me how your wages are higher... I showed you how a carpenter wages are lower. The floor is yours.
I asked if you live with your parents for a reason, you really seem to be void of what is going on in the country. Are you married with kids...a home owner? If so I am wrong on that.
Don't take life so seriously in that " sooner or later we are just old men in funny clothes" "Tom 'T-Bone' Wolk"
Why do you think the effects on the economy that you have accepted as valid (depressed or stagnant wages for lower and middle income households, low-skill jobs no longer providing a so-called "good paying job", etc.) are tied to immigration specifically rather than other cause?
The world is always full of the sound of waves..but who knows the heart of the sea, a hundred feet down? Who knows it's depth? ~ Eiji Yoshikawa
I'd also point out that the last time you and I were in a discussion on this topic you didn't like the argument that wages had been stagnant since the Reagan years while the top 0.1% of wealthy Americans had made out very, very well in the same period of time. It seems to me you've suddenly found demand-side Jesus once you decided you could blame illegal immigrants for the effects because you happen to have seen an increase in their numbers at the same time.
The world is always full of the sound of waves..but who knows the heart of the sea, a hundred feet down? Who knows it's depth? ~ Eiji Yoshikawa
