Paul Ryan might be not running for reelection

[_EAllusion]

Big deal if true:

https://www.axios.com/paul-ryan-confida ... 3fdb5.html

[_EAllusion]

It's semi-official now.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/11/us/p ... eaker.html

[_Xenophon]

I don't know how you view this as anything other than Ryan acknowledging that the House is all but lost. I think the political move that makes more sense is to finish out the term, get re-elected and then decide what to do, even if that was to then step down. Stepping down in advance is kind of a breath of fresh air though, so props to him on that.

Time with family is being cited pretty heavily as Ryan's reasoning, hard to fault him on that, especially given how tough the next cycle is going to be.

[_Maksutov]

Maybe he and Gowdy and some others can see the clusterf on the horizon.

[_subgenius]

Big deal if true:

https://www.axios.com/paul-ryan-confida ... 3fdb5.html

I am not sure i agree with the "big deal" label...incumbents are a bigger liability (for both parties in reality). I would not underestimate the voters' growing desire for "change"

[_Some Schmo]

Maybe he and Gowdy and some others can see the clusterf on the horizon.

Bingo.

[_Themis]

I am not sure i agree with the "big deal" label...incumbents are a bigger liability (for both parties in reality). I would not underestimate the voters' growing desire for "change"

It's common to see many in the party in power to retire knowing that the party is not going to do well in the next election. It can be important to some who plan on coming back at a later time. I suspect Paul Ryan still very much wants to be president and losing the house could hurt future chances at a run for president.

[_ajax18]

Good, get someone in there willing to build the wall.

[_EAllusion]

Big deal if true:

https://www.axios.com/paul-ryan-confida ... 3fdb5.html

I am not sure i agree with the "big deal" label...incumbents are a bigger liability (for both parties in reality). I would not underestimate the voters' growing desire for "change"

Incumbents get about a 7ish point bounce on average in elections according to people like Dave Wasserman, but that's neither here nor there. You seem to have interpreted "big deal" solely in terms of whether a Democrat or Republican will win his district. That's a minor issue compared to the impact of uncertainty of Republican leadership both before and after the 2018 midterms. Ajax is in this thread pining for someone more aligned with him on immigration issues. He gets why it is a big deal.

[Guest]

It is also reasonable to suspect that this will probably have some serious fundraising implications, especially given Ryan's usually strong ability to fill coffers.

Honestly I think this is 100% the right call for Ryan but if I support the GOP I'm probably not too happy about this.

ETA: To Ajax's point, I just noticed that the leading candidate for the Republicans is Nehlen... the lolz just keep coming. I think the GOP can kiss that seat behindgoodbye, barring something truly game changing.