The economic strategies in a trade war

[_Hawkeye]

Please explain how a trade deficit means or leads to a net job loss in “key” areas like manufacturing and how exactly does that mean we are getting the “short end of the “deal””. It sounds like you are just parroting our idiot Cheeto-in-chief and have no idea what you are talking about. Like none. I know we have established that you don’t understand basic economics but, dude, what you said above is so ignorant I don’t even know where to start. Maybe in your own words answer the two questions above and we can see just how bad it is.

Yes, Trump is an idiot and you are parroting some of the stupidest things he has said. There is a reason he is walking back his trade threats, someone finally told him he is an idiot but, still, people like you will blindly believe his ill conceived talking points. Please, read a book, watch the videos above, do something, anything, to educate yourself on the issues before typing.

Using steel as an example.

If we import more foreign steel rather than use our own manufactured steel...that means that miners, steel workers, and associated "trades" are not working in the abandoned factories.

If we import more foreign things like screws, nuts, and bolts, made with foreign products, then american workers are not producing these items.

In your own words...why is it wrong to balance this out?


You are quick to just spew hate, preach liberal talking points, and live a conservative life...where do you live again? And why don't you live in Torrance or Inglewood? My point is you demand answers from me, yet duck questions by me.

Why do you think we import steel Markk? Serious question. They buy elsewhere because America doesn't compete well. We don't produce enough of it for one, and secondly we don't produce enough of it at competitive costs.

And how much steel do you think we import from China? We import more steel from 14 other countries. China is ranked only 15th on that list.



So explain for us why Trump didn't include a steel import tariff on Canada, our largest importer of steel. He also excluded Mexico which is the third largest importer. I mean, this is all about jobs right?

[_Hawkeye]

The president says they'll protect American jobs and bolster national security. They'll likely do neither.

“More than 13,000 U.S. jobs have been lost in aluminum since 2000—and 14,000 steel jobs disappeared in [the] last two years alone.” But America’s steel and aluminum industries simply do not employ that many workers. Restoring all those jobs would be but a blip in a monthly payroll report.

The Unintended Consequences of U.S. Steel Import Tariffs: A Quantification of the Impact During 2002

Plus, the tariffs will invite retaliatory actions that could hit a huge number of American exporters. “Every time you do this, you get a retaliation, and agriculture is the number one target. I think this is terribly counterproductive,” Senator Pat Roberts, a Kansas Republican, told reporters on Thursday. There are numbers to back this economic case up: A study of a similar trade actions taken by the George W. Bush administration found that they cost the economy an estimated 200,000 jobs, including roughly 11,000 in Ohio, 10,000 in Michigan, 10,000 in Illinois, and 8,000 in Pennsylvania.

Trump’s “smart” trade action, then, might spark a trade war, hurt the auto industry, bleed jobs from the Rust Belt, and anger American allies around the world. A small number of companies and workers stand to benefit, but a far larger number are now at risk.

[_Markk]

Ok, ill go back to your first post:

We have a project starting in which we are to replace the existing shake roof with new cedar shingles. I called the supplier for a quote, and was told that there is a "hold" on all orders, in that Canada is going to spike up prices on soft woods to combat the upcoming Tariff war

You stated that 'Canada' is raising the prices of these shingles. I'm not sure if you mean the country or the manufacturers, but leaving that aside please explain how Canada raising the FOB price of a shingle helps them in a trade war, when the increased duty imposed by the US is already increasing the LDP price for US purchasers of these shingles.

Our supplier said it was do to the Tariff's, so I assume it is Canada...I doubt it is the manufacture in that it is not so much a shingle issue, but softwood issue... which is a huge export/import product both countries depend on.

Right or wrong, the way I view it is that Canada countered our potential steel tariffs, with potential softwood tariffs...which seems like a smart counter punch by Canada too me. Which should be expected in a trade war.

We will have see how it unfolds and if it balances the deficit.

[Guest]

Using steel as an example.

If we import more foreign steel rather than use our own manufactured steel...that means that miners, steel workers, and associated "trades" are not working in the abandoned factories.

If we import more foreign things like screws, nuts, and bolts, made with foreign products, then american workers are not producing these items.

Dude, this is beyond simple and ignorant. Importing more steel could easily indicate we are doing more manufacturing. A deficit of raw materials could indicate a net increase in manufacturing. Nothing you said above makes any sense and you don’t even understand the very basics of trade or monetary policy. Nothing you said above explains how a trade deficit is bad or how it affects net job creation.


You do understand that just because one industry has become outdated or less necessary, that doesn’t mean all industries have the same experience, right?

You understand that a trade deficit means the dollar is strong right? You understand that manufacturing is going to go where overhead and labor are cheaper and the dollar goes further right? You understand that Trump's ignorant policies are driving the value of the dollar up relative to the Mexican peso making manufacturing cheaper there and incentivizing more migration right? You understand that a trade deficit could indicate that we are consuming all of our manufactured products and still have money to buy foreign goods? You understand that a tariff on steel might raise the price of goods manufactured in the us making consumers buy more abroad increasing the deficit right??! A trade deficit doesn’t automatically mean we are not manufacturing, you get that right??? We could be using foreign staples to manufacture more of our own goods leading to a net increase in manufacturing while having a trade deficit.

Like I said, you don't even have the bare bones basics to understand how stupid your comments are on trade. Just admit you are wrong and that you have no bloody clue what you are talking about. Jeezus.

In your own words...why is it wrong to balance this out?

Christ. I never said it’s wrong to balance it out. I just pointed out how stupid you and Trump are for thinking that a trade deficit means we are “getting the short end of the stick”. Please try to keep up.

What does where I live have to do with your ignorance of trade policy? Stay focused here, you might actually learn something so next time you won’t look so foolish.

Eta. I love your last silly little jab about librul talking points. Lol. Thanks for the laugh.

[Guest]

Our supplier said it was do to the Tariff's, so I assume it is Canada...I doubt it is the manufacture in that it is not so much a shingle issue, but softwood issue... which is a huge export/import product both countries depend on.

Right or wrong, the way I view it is that Canada countered our potential steel tariffs, with potential softwood tariffs...which seems like a smart counter punch by Canada too me. Which should be expected in a trade war.

Canadian steel was exempted from the steel tariffs imposed by Trump.

Tariffs are imposed by, and paid to the country of destination not the country of origin (or manufacture).

In this case of shingles, that would be the US. Tarrifs are being imposed by the US on Canadian made goods. (Which is why the price increased).

Canadian imposed tariffs would only apply to foreign goods being brought into Canada.

You have a complete lack of understanding on this.

[_schreech]

Our supplier said it was do to the Tariff's, so I assume it is Canada...I doubt it is the manufacture in that it is not so much a shingle issue, but softwood issue... which is a huge export/import product both countries depend on.

Right or wrong, the way I view it is that Canada countered our potential steel tariffs, with potential softwood tariffs...which seems like a smart counter punch by Canada too me. Which should be expected in a trade war.

We will have see how it unfolds and if it balances the deficit.

Literally, everything you said here shows you have no idea what you are talking about and you don’t even understand the terms you are using.

[_MissTish]

Our supplier said it was do to the Tariff's, so I assume it is Canada...I doubt it is the manufacture in that it is not so much a shingle issue, but softwood issue... which is a huge export/import product both countries depend on.

Right or wrong, the way I view it is that Canada countered our potential steel tariffs, with potential softwood tariffs...which seems like a smart counter punch by Canada too me. Which should be expected in a trade war.

We will have see how it unfolds and if it balances the deficit.

Literally, everything you said here shows you have no idea what you are talking about and you don’t even understand the terms you are using.

Much like the President.

[Reflexzero]

Right or wrong, the way I view it is that Canada countered our potential steel tariffs, with potential softwood tariffs...which seems like a smart counter punch by Canada too me. Which should be expected in a trade war.

We will have see how it unfolds and if it balances the deficit.

Hi Markk,

We've seen an ever-growing increase from our framing contractors, and cabinet contractors too. There have been some (seemingly minor, in my opinion**) retaliatory trade measures from Canada following the steel and aluminum brouhaha but the increase in softwood lumber prices is almost entirely from a US tariff on lumber.

Trump put a tariff on Canadian lumber in April of last year. It’s just taken a little bit for the increases to hit some of the different industry supply chains (increased cost in framing lumber was almost immediate following the tariffs). Since 95% of imported lumber used to come from Canada, I wouldn’t be surprised if the prices increase even more as the supply chain continues to adjust and react.

I couldn’t find any revised numbers, but when the tariffs were first levied in April of last year, the NAHB estimated they would add $1,236 to the price of an average single-family home, and result in a net loss of 8,241 American jobs.

Link to NAHB: http://eyeonhousing.org/2017/04/impact- ... 1523635200


**ETA: I think Canada likely realizes what some in America are discovering. Tariffs usually end up being paid by the consumer of the country that implements them. They likely don’t want to screw over their own citizens like we are.

[_schreech]

Much like the President.

Yea, no kidding. All Trump has to do is say things that make no sense and he has people falling all over themselves to defend him and explain what he is “really” trying to say/do. Wink, wink. It’s more like a religion than an information based position, they feel and believe it’s going to be good for ‘Mercia because, Trump!!!

[Guest]

To Dr. Steuss's point, we actually already did a pretty good back and forth on the lumber topic here.

Shout out to the good Dr. with his pretty accurate timeline prediction.