The Blue Wave...

[_subgenius]

...is ebbing?

Over the past several months, political pundits and media elites alike have decided we are headed toward a “blue wave” in this year’s midterm elections. This narrative is spoken as if it is an absolute certainty, reminiscent of the “Hillary Clinton is unbeatable” conventional wisdom in 2016 — and we all know how that turned out.

The reality on the ground is that the fundamentals are not nearly as good for the Democrats as many in the media would have you believe. President Trump’s favorability numbers are higher than they were at any point during the 2016 campaign, and generic ballot numbers are up for Republicans across the board. Trump’s objective successes — a growing economy, newly passed tax cuts that put money in the pockets of millions of American families, and diplomatic success with North Korea — have clearly helped the GOP’s image with voters.

For the Democrats to truly ride a “blue wave”, they would need to recapture both the House and the Senate. And, despite the hype, math is not on their side for either objective.

note: "President Trump’s favorability numbers are higher than they were at any point during the 2016 campaign, and generic ballot numbers are up for Republicans across the board."

http://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/386 ... ry-results

and PEW echoes this sentiment:

A majority of Americans find little or no common ground with Donald Trump on issues, but the share who say they agree with him on many or all issues has risen since last August.

http://www.people-press.org/2018/05/03/ ... s-conduct/

So, are voters becoming desensitized to the Trump bashing? Are Democrats eventually going to realize that their one-trick pony approach to mid term elections may not be enough for the center ring?...or is there a longer play here?

[_Hawkeye]

TERRY SCHILLING is a Right Wing moron who is beating a typical straw man. I haven't heard anyone in the media insisting we're headed for a blue wave. I've been seeing some of them point out how Democrats have been winning in the special elections in areas where Trump won by huge margins, and I've heard some talk about how Republicans are winning in some of those same areas by thinner margins than expected. All of this is true.

"President Trump’s favorability numbers are higher than they were at any point during the 2016 campaign"

Uh, so what? What matters is how his favorability compares to the rest of his time as President, not as a candidate. All you have to do is click on the link he provided. It was +13 on April 3rd and has fluctuated between that and +16.4 unfavorable ever since. The RCP average currently has him at +14 Unfavorable.

[_Res Ipsa]

Who knew that Baghdad Bob survived the war and now posts here?

[_EAllusion]

Democrats have been campaigning heavily on issues that are broadly popular with the American public, but it is true that the media has largely ignored this to focus on Trump scandals. This has created a false impression, capitalized on subgenius's ignorance, that Democrats are just running against Trump even though that's not their national strategy at all. Trump takes care of that part himself. It would be moronic to focus election efforts on his fitness. Democrats just don't have that much influence on media narratives. It's not like they own a vast propaganda ecosystem like Republicans do.

Trump's numbers have been improving modestly, though he's still quite unpopular and unfathomably unpopular in a 3.9% unemployment environment. That's just the power of American disengagement at work. Luck into a good enough economy, and Americans will support anything. Literally anything. See Trump, Donald.

What does this mean for a "blue wave?" Democrats are still highly likely to win large majorities of votes. But they're still on the knife's edge as to whether they win by enough to actually overcome structural advantages Republicans built for themselves in previous years and actually take a chamber of Congress. Every single forecasting pundit of note I can think of - Nate Silver, Dave Wasserman, Nate Cohn, etc. has made this point and has been making it for many months. But sub decides to channel someone who insists that political pundits have all decided that Democrats are headed towards a blue wave with absolute certainty. Because strawmen are fun.

[_EAllusion]

One of the things were seeing as this election season gets closer is that Democrats issue campaigning is being almost entirely ignored in favor of relentless coverage of Trump. Not that Trump's admin isn't an epic dumpster fire that deserves attention, but this actually damages Democrats because their agenda is far, far more popular than Republicans. That's why Republican polling lowpoints coincide with times when national attention switched to flagship Republican policy agenda. As long as the public perception is off issues, Republicans probably can live with that. It's the exact same phenomenon that occurred in the 2016 election when the only policy issues really discussed were trade policy and immigration in terms that Trump wanted to discuss them.

In any case, I wouldn't bet on a Democratic victory in terms of flipping the House, Senate or winning huge numbers of govenorships. That's a fool's bet. Democrats could easily just win by a few % and win none of that. Democrats getting majorities of votes is a safer bet.

[_honorentheos]

What does this mean for a "blue wave?" Democrats are still highly likely to win large majorities of votes. But they're still on the knife's edge as to whether they win by enough to actually overcome structural advantages Republicans built for themselves in previous years and actually take a chamber of Congress. Every single forecasting pundit of note I can think of - Nate Silver, Dave Wasserman, Nate Cohn, etc. has made this point and has been making it for many months. But sub decides to channel someone who insists that political pundits have all decided that Democrats are headed towards a blue wave with absolute certainty. Because strawmen are fun.

Thanks for sharing this, EA. I do think that the popular media makes it sound like Democrats are much better positioned than the math suggests, so I don't think subbie's source is presenting a strawman argument. It seems to me that those dissatisfied with Trump looking for change in November need to understand that the math is absolutely against that change happening, and there needs to be an urgency to the message that no one can sit November out and expect things will take care of themselves. If someone cares about the outcome, they need to be part of making that outcome they care about happen. The odds are stacked so badly against the Democrats taking the Senate just by the fact the seats that are up largely have all the advantages of staying red I wouldn't feel right taking a persons money who wanted to bet the Senate will be flipped.

[_subgenius]

TERRY SCHILLING is a Right Wing moron who is beating a typical straw man. I haven't heard anyone in the media insisting we're headed for a blue wave. I've been seeing some of them point out how Democrats have been winning in the special elections in areas where Trump won by huge margins, and I've heard some talk about how Republicans are winning in some of those same areas by thinner margins than expected. All of this is true.

"President Trump’s favorability numbers are higher than they were at any point during the 2016 campaign"

Uh, so what? What matters is how his favorability compares to the rest of his time as President, not as a candidate. All you have to do is click on the link he provided. It was +13 on April 3rd and has fluctuated between that and +16.4 unfavorable ever since. The RCP average currently has him at +14 Unfavorable.

i think the point was that his favorability is higher than when he won a big election by a big upset...and then the article "does the math" with regards to how improbable it is for the Democrats to actually win back house or senate.
And while you may want to say Democrats have some other tools in the tool shed, that matters very little if voters don't see them actually build something. It's not the media nor the voters' fault if they don't escape the 1 dimensional perception they currently cast.
Already you sound like Hillary Clinton - don't be a sore loser....yet.

[_subgenius]

Because strawmen are fun.

yeah, what was I thinking? it's already been exclaimed on another thread that blue doesn't even exist.

[_DoubtingThomas]

So, are voters becoming desensitized to the Trump bashing? Are Democrats eventually going to realize that their one-trick pony approach to mid term elections may not be enough for the center ring?...or is there a longer play here?

Yes dude, but in 20 to 30 years from now the Republican party as we know it won't exists.

[_Hawkeye]

So, are voters becoming desensitized to the Trump bashing? Are Democrats eventually going to realize that their one-trick pony approach to mid term elections may not be enough for the center ring?...or is there a longer play here?

Yes dude, but in 20 to 30 years from now the Republican party as we know it won't exists.

The Republican Party we knew 5 years ago no longer exists.