The Real Reason NK stopped Nuke Testing?

[_Hawkeye]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/trevornace ... 5292f964c2

This Could Be The Real Reason Why North Korea Stopped Its Nuclear Missile Tests

North Korean president Kim Jong-un recently announced his country has halted its nuclear testing program. While it is unclear whether this is a political move in preparation for meeting with the United States president Donald Trump, recent evidence suggests the country may have been forced to halt testing.

A recent study by a group of geologists discovered that the mountain used by North Korea for its nuclear bomb testing has collapsed as a result of the explosions. The collapsed mountain is raising concerns about radioactive fallout, which could make its way into China.

Scientists from the University of Science and Technology of China believe this could be the true reason North Korean President Kim Jong-un announced the halt of their nuclear testing program.

The collapse of Mount Mantap was a result of five recent nuclear blasts at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site in northwest North Korea. The recent nuclear tests tore open a hole in the mountain, causing it to collapse and creating a pathway for radioactivity to escape from the mountain.

The team of Chinese geologists believes the collapse was a result of the detonation of North Korea's most powerful nuclear warhead last fall. The nuclear bomb was detonated about 2,300 feet beneath the mountain's peak, causing aftershock earthquakes and collapse of the mountain.

The research, which will be published next month in the peer-reviewed journal Geophysical Research Letters, examines satellite imagery before and after the nuclear tests. There is ongoing concern that the collapse ejected radioactive dust, which could make its way into China and other neighboring countries.

The first four underground nuclear tests last year did not produce visible structural damage to the mountain as detected through satellite imagery. However, the 5th nuclear test, a 100-kilotonne nuclear bomb that was detonated on September 3rd caused significant structural damage to the mountain.

The bomb likely vaporized the surrounding rock and blew a hole in the side of the mountain according to Wen Lianxing, the lead geologists on the project from the State University of New York at Stony Brook. After analyzing satellite imagery and the response from seismic stations, the research team concluded that the blast caused a large section of the mountain to collapse on itself.

The United States Geological Survey reported a magnitude 6.3 earthquake, followed by a second 4.6 magnitude earthquake shortly afterward coinciding with the detonation of the September nuclear test.

Evidence of the collapse of Mount Mantap suggests it could be the underlying cause of North Korea halting its nuclear tests. Time will show whether the recluse country will develop a new nuclear test site or whether this marks the end of nuclear testing by North Korea.

[_Themis]

Yup, this is the obvious reason for them to stop. They cannot do anymore without creating a new site so why not create good will by saying you are going to stop. The real worry here is that North Korea sees opportunity to manipulate Trump into a good deal for them. He is easily manipulated if you know where to strike and he is very unpopular, with a republican party not looking to do well in Novembers elections. They need a good win and they know they can sell any deal as a good deal. It not like even 5% of the US population has read up on the Iran deal to know if it was a good deal or not. From what I can see is that Trump himself has little idea of what the Iran deal is about.

[_subgenius]

It not like even 5% of the US population has read up on the Iran deal to know if it was a good deal or not.

clearly you're part of the 95%....even though you wont admit that you haven't "read up" on that deal either. .but your admission is not even necessary....not necessary at all.

[_Themis]

clearly you're part of the 95%....even though you wont admit that you haven't "read up" on that deal either. .but your admission is not even necessary....not necessary at all.

I see you still have nothing of value to say. It's why most just ignore you as the troll you are. If you want real discussion try saying what you think about the subject of the Iran deal or North Korea.

[_Some Schmo]

This makes way more sense.

Even before I read this article, the idea that NK announced they were stopping testing because of Drumpf was an incredibly dubious prospect. It seemed to me South Korea had the more to do with it than anyone else.

Giving Drumpf credit for NK is like giving a baby credit for baby proofing your house.

ETA: It seems to me that every positive thing to happen during Drumpf's term is a result of other people reacting to how bad he and his administration are. It's good people thwarting his impulse to blow up the country.

[_subgenius]

clearly you're part of the 95%....even though you wont admit that you haven't "read up" on that deal either. .but your admission is not even necessary....not necessary at all.

I see you still have nothing of value to say. It's why most just ignore you as the troll you are. If you want real discussion try saying what you think about the subject of the Iran deal or North Korea.

oh, a real discussion...like the one you and schmo are participating in? so far it seems more like discussion=bashing-based-on-rumor-and-personal-angst.
But, please, let me try again:

Yup, this is the obvious reason for them to stop.

obvious? it only came to you because it was mentioned as a hypothesis...you never once entertained such an "obvious" notion before.
and "reason"?...note that it is unsubstantiated hypothesis, no peer review and no evidence revealed...you literally latched on to something that is tantamount to a rumor....your naïve enthusiasm is admirable, but it is overtly full of presupposition.

They cannot do anymore without creating a new site so why not create good will by saying you are going to stop.

Even if the science proves to support the mountain collapse...you have no proof/evidence/logic to support a conclusion for their motivation. It is more reasonable/logical that NK would prefer to perpetuate a myth of their nuclear program and just dismiss the science report as "fake news".

The real worry here is that North Korea sees opportunity to manipulate Trump into a good deal for them.

That is not a worry, because you assume you have access to the same information and same counsel as the Executive Branch. But again, you have no evidence to believe such a claim. There is more evidence, via secret night-time money drops, that Obama gives the best deals to our adversaries.

He is easily manipulated if you know where to strike

CFR...for discussion purposes.

and he is very unpopular,

arguable and mostly irrelevant in this context and with respect to your conclusion.
for example: http://www.people-press.org/2018/05/03/ ... s-conduct/

with a republican party not looking to do well in Novembers elections.

But all the math and the current political science disagrees with this notion.
for example: http://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/386 ... ry-results

They need a good win and they know they can sell any deal as a good deal.

but they don't need a good win...wins have been in steady supply, like tax reform, fed judge appointments, Supreme Court decisions, etc.

It not like even 5% of the US population has read up on the Iran deal to know if it was a good deal or not. From what I can see is that Trump himself has little idea of what the Iran deal is about.

again, i challenge the insinuation that you are not among the 95%.

[Guest]

This makes way more sense.

Even before I read this article, the idea that NK announced they were stopping testing because of Drumpf was an incredibly dubious prospect. It seemed to me South Korea had the more to do with it than anyone else.

Giving Drumpf credit for NK is like giving a baby credit for baby proofing your house.

ETA: It seems to me that every positive thing to happen during Drumpf's term is a result of other people reacting to how bad he and his administration are. It's good people thwarting his impulse to blow up the country.

Agreed. And I predict that by the time November rolls around the following will have become evident:

1. The much vaunted tax bill was mainly a budget busting give away to the wealthy that benefited the middle class and poor not at all due to the resulting inflation.

2. Tariffs on steel and aluminum will either have been rescinded or will have cost US manufacturers and consumers a great deal of money and be an net drain on the economy, especially if they eventually give rise to a trade war.

3. Pull out from the Paris Accords and the TPP will have isolated America politically and economically and the U.S. will have clearly ceded world leadership to China.

4. Violation of the multinational nuclear agreement with Iran will cost US both money and credibility.

5. Moving the US Embassy to Jerusalem will give rise to increased unrest in the Middle East - unrest which Iran will be able to leverage to its great advantage while the US sits by having squandered any leverage it had in order that Trump could keep an ill advised campaign promise to a small constituency of right wing radicals.

6. NK stopped nuclear testing because they unintentionally destroyed their underground nuclear test facility and decided to leverage their misfortune into highly beneficial agreement with the US and its allies.

7. Trump will not be selected for a Nobel Prize in 2019. Far from it. His growing reputation as an international pariah and destroyer of civilization will be greatly enhanced and he will be lucky to still be in office.

8. Donald J. Trump is suffering from advanced NPD, and as such is is a compulsive liar and a barely literate thug massively in debt (especially to the Russians) and among the greatest dangers to American democracy in the history of the country.

[_Hawkeye]

oh, a real discussion...like the one you and schmo are participating in? so far it seems more like discussion=bashing-based-on-rumor-and-personal-angst.

It is called a logical deduction of the facts, something that is completely foreign to Right Wingers.

None of this is based on "rumor." It is a fact that N. Korea has nowhere else to test their nukes and they've likely already crossed a huge red line with China if radiation has escaped.

[_Themis]

obvious? it only came to you because it was mentioned as a hypothesis...you never once entertained such an "obvious" notion before.
and "reason"?...note that it is unsubstantiated hypothesis, no peer review and no evidence revealed...you literally latched on to something that is tantamount to a rumor....your naïve enthusiasm is admirable, but it is overtly full of presupposition.

LOL It's funny to watch you go after people with things they know you agree with. It's an obvious reason for them to stop and you know from their history they would use it to gain favor with the world in any negotiations.

Even if the science proves to support the mountain collapse...you have no proof/evidence/logic to support a conclusion for their motivation. It is more reasonable/logical that North Korea would prefer to perpetuate a myth of their nuclear program and just dismiss the science report as "fake news".

Deducing their motivations is not hard when you look at their history. A history most understand in which you only argue against because you incorrectly view myself and some others here as big liberals. It's also to defend Trump.

That is not a worry, because you assume you have access to the same information and same counsel as the Executive Branch. But again, you have no evidence to believe such a claim. There is more evidence, via secret night-time money drops, that Obama gives the best deals to our adversaries.

I said real worry. I know enough about how other governments operate to know they will try and get the best deals for themselves and Trump is very ignorant of how these things work and in my opinion has many character flaws smart people can use against him.

arguable and mostly irrelevant in this context and with respect to your conclusion.
for example: http://www.people-press.org/2018/05/03/ ... s-conduct/

You know full well his polling numbers are very low for a president. Republicans are also smart enough to know making any deal can have a real positive effect for the upcoming elections, and plenty of politicians seem fine with bad deals if it gets them votes.

but they don't need a good win...wins have been in steady supply, like tax reform, fed judge appointments, Supreme Court decisions, etc.

LOL political parties always need a good win. Past elections don't keep parties in power.

again, i challenge the insinuation that you are not among the 95%.

I didn't say I was. You miss the point. Even most of the 5% wouldn't have enough understanding of this complex issue to know if it was a good deal. So how do we have the best chance of knowing whether something like this is a good or bad deal Subby?

[_subgenius]

LOL It's funny to watch you go after people with things they know you agree with. It's an obvious reason for them to stop and you know from their history they would use it to gain favor with the world in any negotiations.

Its a possible reason except for the blatant transparency involved...but you justify such a tactic by "their history", please provide the examples that would conclude with this being in line with "their history". I do not recall similar incidents being used by NK as negotiation veils - but apparently you do?

Deducing their motivations is not hard when you look at their history.

Again, provide this "history" so the deduction will make manifest.

I know enough about how other governments operate to know they will try and get the best deals for themselves and Trump is very ignorant of how these things work and in my opinion has many character flaws smart people can use against him.

tin-foil hat aside...notice your goal post movement by addendum of "in my opinion".

You know full well his polling numbers are very low for a president.

obviously you did not read linked research, but thanks.

... plenty of politicians seem fine with bad deals if it gets them votes.

With Obama as a case study, it is hard to disagree with your point here.

LOL political parties always need a good win. Past elections don't keep parties in power.

double-LOL, i did not list anything about past elections.

So how do we have the best chance of knowing whether something like this is a good or bad deal Subby?

Geez, i don't know, maybe ask Hawkeye? those posts seem to discourage posters from thinking/knowing for themselves.