Kishkumen wrote:This "story" recounted by Mr. Stevenson cannot be true. Let me explain.
The poster got greedy. Of course there must be a possibility, however slight, that Stevenson heard Joseph refer to two personages. It is highly improbable. But the poster wants to say it is impossible, and that gives DCP the wiggle room to jump all over the logical error and make this error the issue.
Excellent point, I threw the comment up here late last night, but it really did need to be qualified, thank you for doing that.
The irony to me, as a mathematician, is that DCP is misusing a strong mathematical concept to exploit a logical fallacy his believing readers engage in, that of assuming their conclusion is true a priori and then being left with no option but to force-fit all data into supporting that assumption.
The true probability, after weighing the evidence, is technically closer to zero (impossible) than it is to probable, which could be defined as at least better even odds. However, as you point out, the strict definition of "impossible" is "not possible," or a probability of zero. Few scientists would be willing to ever assign a probability of zero to an event like this, and DCP exploits that. As Doctor Scratch pointed out, it's not an honest way to treat one's readers.
kish wrote:DCP is pretty sly. Don't forget that, anyone. He sets up the situation by posting about an interesting account, knowing that those already disposed to believe in Mormonism as it was later constructed and to assume that it was always that way will see their testimonies vindicated here. He knows that critics will jump in to say that this does not prove anything, so that he can say he never claimed it did. Meanwhile his fans are taking pleasure at watching the critics stopped dead in their tracks, lost in the weeds of DCP's hairsplitting and equivocations.
Critics need to be more savvy in avoiding these traps before they spring. Unfortunately, too often critics get excited about how DCP is wrong here and rush in to correct him. It is necessary to step back and grasp how he has set up the situation before you go rushing in.
Excellent advice, and you state it quite eloquently! I'm sure Cassius keeps a running list of advice for the budding non-mopologist, this deserves a place of honor.

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kish wrote:The real issue here for me is that you have an educator who is failing to educate. He is abdicating his responsibility to cultivate critical thinking in his students. The only people educated here are those who are willing to take him on and criticize his work. His casual fans get uneducated. He has given them no help in how to assess the relative value of different kinds of evidence. This is what he ought to be doing as an educator. Instead, he is playing games and misleading his core readership.
Well stated. It's an area close to my heart, and I really don't understand his casual betrayal of his academic obligations. That it's happening in a blog is irrelevant. He is an academic representing his University.