Chap wrote:
An odd set of responses from subgenius.
arguable, but since we're throwing out trivial commentary -
An odd set of responses from Chap.
Chap wrote:On A: frankly, I don't much care one way or another whether your average employer of seasonal agricultural labor is more likely to be Rep or Democrat. I'd guess the former, but it remains certain that the labor shortage that would result from the exclusion of currently working migrant labourers won't be solved without wages that have been increased to a level that will attract Americans (though we can't be sure what that level is). Present levels certainly will not.
Maybe, maybe not...the American demographic capable of fulfilling this workforce simply does not want to work.
Chap wrote:On B: Yup, looks like it. There are of course also some signs (as in the case of the Mar a Lago hiring policy for restaurant workers) that some employers recruit seasonal migrant labour preferentially to Americans.
No, it is a market driven employment.
Chap wrote: We don't, of course, know what wage level would be enough to attract t sufficient Americans into this kind of seasonal work. It might turn out to be higher than anyone is willing to pay for (see C).
And it might not...the assumption that it is purely wage level driven is interesting, but unlikely.
Chap wrote:On C: The only way to settle that question definitively would be to run on a political platform of a big hike in wages for seasonal agricultural labor, and be upfront with voters that this will raise the cost of their weekly shop.
There are likely more indicative methods that provide more accurate measures for consumer behavior than the ballot.
Chap wrote:There are no signs that anybody much is about to do that. But let's put it this way: I don't think anybody is going to act on the basis that 'pay more so they get paid more' is likely to be a big vote winner. What do you think?
I don't quite understand what you are asking about...i know the Democrats often act on the "they pay more so you get paid more" premise.
Chap wrote:Overall: it is quite possible that it is economically and electorally impossible for the US to harvest a large proportion of its crops without seasonal migrant labour. If you think it's worth the risk, just try it and see ...
I agree that seasonal migrant labor is integral, but no one is talking about erasing that force...it is just whether that force is made of up of illegal/undocumented immigrants or citizens.
Anyway, it is not "impossible" as the robot force increases. Automation is the single biggest threat to this type of workforce in America.
Consider this side-story...Years ago a Chinese delegate came to our offices to give a presentation on their Marble/Granite export capabilities (our company uses hella-lot of granite and marble). We were already aware of how it much cheaper to have stone quarried and processed overseas than in the States..heck it is even cheaper to quarry stone here (eg Vermont) and ship it to Italy for processing and then ship it back to the States than having it all done Stateside...yep, those stone Union wages are just that cost prohibitive.
Anyway, the Chinese went through their presentation and the inquiry was made about the modern quality of processing equipment at their production facilities (laser guided cutting tools and what-not)...the delegation quickly noted how everything is done "by hand" because they cannot afford to displace so many people with automation....like how Chinese cigarettes are still hand rolled by hundreds of workers, etc.
So it became apparent how their is a critical mass for the displacement of labor by automation and when comparing Chinese population to American it would seem that "there is plenty of time" for that concern....but it is not just robots that can displace a labor force. Yes, people may seemingly not want this job or that job because the necessity has not reached critical mass as of yet...but did the Chinese make the right call? Should they not have chosen the robot work force over their own people? Would not the efficiencies offered eventually allow for all those workers to enjoy entitlement after entitlement ? free from the constraints of "working for a living"?
So, Chinese granite and marble is everywhere in the States, most likely your recent upgraded countertop - but it is inferior quality...it is all you would expect from a Chinese knock-off...a.k.a., you get what you pay for...nevertheless, we chose to not do business with the Chinese that day (though I scored some great tea) and we still do not....our stone suppliers still source from South America and Italy - because yeah, America is still cost-prohibitive to Americans.