Kavanaugh and Perjury

[_Kevin Graham]

What's a problem to me is he is blatantly lying about his past history of drinking and I don't like the idea of people trying to lie their way onto the bench. This is particularly strange because his past history of drinking in of itself wouldn't deter his ability to get confirmed and he's lying anyway.

I do think integrity does play a role in quality of justices, yes. For example, it suggests he may be particularly prone to crafting sham justifications for preferred policy outcomes in his decisions. I said I wouldn't support Bill Clinton for a Supreme Court seat and one major reason why is his penchant for dishonesty.

Well, he's sitting there right beside his wife who probably believed he was a little choir boy in his younger years. Him being the quintessential Christian is probably part of his image that many of his friends and family latched onto over the years as well. Hence his adamant position about being a virgin before marriage.

[_Doctor CamNC4Me]

I do think integrity does play a role in quality of justices, yes. For example, it suggests he may be particularly prone to crafting sham justifications for preferred policy outcomes in his decisions. I said I wouldn't support Bill Clinton for a Supreme Court seat and one major reason why is his penchant for dishonesty.

Hrm. We may have a Pence situation developing if this Avenatti thing goes anywhere (doubtful). Much like Trump is a turdmonster, and if he were impeached you then get Pence, the Democrats successfully getting Kavanaugh out of consideration may land themselves Barnett. That would be a hard one to tank since she's pretty impeccable, from the outside looking in.

- Doc

[_Water Dog]

17 pages? Wow. Good to see the libs at MD are still doing their thang! Promoting sexual assault and destroying the entire #metoo movement to try and score some political points. I would expect nothing less. Best of luck with all this.

[_Xenophon]

Hrm. We may have a Pence situation developing if this Avenatti thing goes anywhere (doubtful). Much like Trump is a turdmonster, and if he were impeached you then get Pence, the Democrats successfully getting Kavanaugh out of consideration may land themselves Barnett. That would be a hard one to tank since she's pretty impeccable, from the outside looking in.

- Doc

Politically speaking, I still think it is the right play for Democrats. They can delay the process and hope they can maybe prevent a lame duck appointment (probably only even realistic if they take the Senate). I think it is still a long shot but you can only play the hand you are dealt.

[_EAllusion]

Well, he's sitting there right beside his wife who probably believed he was a little choir boy in his younger years. Him being the quintessential Christian is probably part of his image that many of his friends and family latched onto over the years as well. Hence his adamant position about being a virgin before marriage.

But if he wasn't the choir boy he claimed he was - and he wasn't - then he has to know that there would be evidence available to show that. Given the chum in the water with the press it is going to get covered. As it happens, he's been contradicted by everything from numerous testimonies of people who knew him to a freakin' roman a clef by one of his good friends. So why lie?

[_EAllusion]

Hrm. We may have a Pence situation developing if this Avenatti thing goes anywhere (doubtful). Much like Trump is a turdmonster, and if he were impeached you then get Pence, the Democrats successfully getting Kavanaugh out of consideration may land themselves Barnett. That would be a hard one to tank since she's pretty impeccable, from the outside looking in.

- Doc

If the goal is to prevent a hard-right appointment, the long-shot Democrats have is stalling out a confirmation long enough that they can stall another one and take the Senate before confirmation can happen. As I said a few times, while there is a nonzero probability of that happening, it's so unlikely that there's basically no chance. Republicans will ram someone through in a day if they have to.

But this makes the idea that the accusations against Kavanaugh are merely a Democrat tactic to stop a Republican Supreme Court seat seem ludicrous. It's not going to happen anyway and no one seriously thinks it is. To the broader project of activist conservative takeover of the judiciary, Kavanaugh means nothing. There's zero stakes. There's a long line behind him of people who can do the same job he was pegged to do.

The best the Democrats can hope for is that the next nominee is someone a little less obviously a partisan ringer who may end up like Souter at some point down the road. That also seems really, really unlikely. The only avenue that reads to me as even a little plausible is if Trump appoints someone who has the personal loyalty he craves, but isn't a thoroughly ideologically vetted Federalist Society candidate like he has been consistently appointing. I woudn't bet a dollar to win a hundred on that, though.

[_EAllusion]

For what is worth, the only Supreme Court justice I actively like is Sonia Sotomayor and everyone else is gradients of bad to me. I don't expect to ever see nominees I would actually like and me thinking someone shouldn't be appointed doesn't give me hope that someone better will replace them. I'm not into that level of optimism.

One of Kavenaugh's mentors, Alex Kozinski, was one of my favorite political figures in the country. Unfortunately, it turns out that he had been engaging in a pattern of sexual harassment for many years. He rightfully had to step down. That was an ideological blow for me, but also the proper outcome.

[_Water Dog]

So, EAllusion, your argument that this isn't merely a coup is that you don't know jack about how this nomination process works? Compelling argument.

No, they cannot ram someone through in a day. That isn't how it works. If Kavanaugh is withdrawn or fails a vote, this waits until after midterms. Period. It then boils down to the balance of the new Senate. Kavanaugh's accuser could admit she made it all up, doesn't matter, Ds won't confirm if they control the Senate. Or anybody else appointed by Trump. Because we're on the verge of civil war it seems and “F” democracy. Anything to win.

What you also fail to register, is that Republicans like Sasse and Collins don't want a majority. Losing the senate is precisely what they hope for. That's job security for them. It's a lot easier to be in the minority, the poetic opposition, which, gee shucks, cannot do anything more than offer soundbites.

[_EAllusion]

Kavanaugh is withdrawn or fails a vote, this waits until after midterms. Period. It then boils down to the balance of the new Senate.

That's not how this works at all. Maybe there's a school house rock video you could watch or something? I don't know. There's been normal Supreme Court nomination processes that only took a few days in the past. There's been Trump admin officials requiring Senate confirmation that have been confirmed inside of a day.

Senate procedures on confirmations are controlled by rules dictated by a bare Senate majority that Republicans currently own. They definitely have time to confirm another nomination if they want to. They can push a nominee through committee and to a floor vote as rapidly as they want. Is it good practice to rush a vote? No. Can they? Sure.

[Alf'Omega]

A third accuser comes forth. The plot thickens, and Avenatti dares anyone to try to discredit her.

Man. It's pretty hard to imagine he's not a rapist now.

She signed a sworn declaration which opens her up to perjury. I'm certainly more likely to believe someone like that than someone who won't even talk to the FBI.