New IPCC report is out

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_Themis
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Re: New IPCC report is out

Post by _Themis »

Water Dog wrote:
Themis wrote:Yup he caught caught red handed


Caught doing what?


You know full well. You suggest you got it from some other source you have been asked to produce and we are still waiting. It's hard to believe it exists since you provided a link to the one that has the last sentence. If you got it from some other source you would have quoted it even if it is from something like britfart.
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_Morley
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Re: New IPCC report is out

Post by _Morley »

Water Dog wrote:
Res Ipsa wrote:And still no link. The desperate attempt to provide easily supplied evidence is sad.

You already know the link. I think you and Morley, et al, are lying about not finding the source I cut/pasted from. It comes right up on Google. Y'all are trying to setup another "gotcha" trap. I give the link, then you ridicule the source. Oh it's breitbart, it's federalist, whatever, they're hacks, all you can do is parrot your evil masters, etc, etc. I'll drop the link eventually. I could have just linked it before, but knew nobody would actually read it. Just like nobody's reading Lindzen's lecture. Y'all want to do this ad hominem appeal to authority thing. So I paraphrased the same argument. But then it delves into all this.


Ha! You're kidding me!

We are evil geniuses who secretly collaborated to coax you into inadvertent prevarication. And, God forbid, that someone might disparage your sources! On a discussion board, no less! You're right: It's better to keep it secret and take the hit yourself. Breitbart would get its feelings hurt.

You probably should plant that quote on another discussion board somewhere, so you can triumphantly reference it, sometime next week.

Thank you, Waterdog, for this. Though I am sorry you feel so much the victim.
_Morley
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Re: New IPCC report is out

Post by _Morley »

honorentheos wrote:If this happens and the predictive modeling holds true which we have reason to believe it will (because it has accurately modeled what happened between pre-industrial and modern times as well as interim predictions also performing well) then people will die, be displaced, migrate to places that don't want them, riot, all while living in a world where that is meaningfully different.


It's the security implications that worry me the most. The Middle East is already descending into chaos, in part because of years of drought. I have family there, and I see little hope. Even if we in the West move toward a solution, the pressure this puts on Europe and the US can't be overstated. We're seeing the tip of the spear in the refugee problem already. But it's just the beginning.
_Water Dog
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Re: New IPCC report is out

Post by _Water Dog »

Morley wrote:It's the security implications that worry me the most. The Middle East is already descending into chaos, in part because of years of drought. I have family there, and I see little hope. Even if we in the West move toward a solution, the pressure this puts on Europe and the US can't be overstated. We're seeing the tip of the spear in the refugee problem already. But it's just the beginning.

Fake news
_Water Dog
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Re: New IPCC report is out

Post by _Water Dog »

Morley wrote:You probably should plant that quote on another discussion board somewhere, so you can triumphantly reference it, sometime next week.

Or you could simply click on the Sept 9 article that appears right on google when you search for the quoted text. Which we both know you've already done.
_Water Dog
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Re: New IPCC report is out

Post by _Water Dog »

This is really the bottom line. Do the empirical results match with the model predictions or not.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... anger.html

An Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report released earlier this week forecast doom if coal-fired power is not ended within 32 years, worldwide.

It predicted up to 90 per cent of coral reefs would be lost if the earth warmed by 1.5 degrees Celcius by 2100, prompting fears for Australia's Great Barrier Reef.


there [has] been no significant warming for 20 years.


Can anybody show me how any of the predictions from past IPCC reports have panned out? Either there has been significant warming, or there hasn't. This is not subjective. Where is the warming? All the temp data I'm seeing shows no appreciable warming. And that's without even getting into the debate over what caused the warming.

Professor Lindzen said the IPCC report this week had reduced the alleged tipping point from 2C to 1.5C because there had been no significant warming for 20 years.

'Warming of any significance ceased about 20 years ago, and 2C warming was looking increasingly unlikely,' he wrote in an email to Daily Mail Australia.

'There was an obvious need for something more plausible to 'sustain' the renewables bubble.'


Is this true, the doom prediction has been walked back because past predictions are proven rubbish?

'Ocean acidification actually means that the oceans might become a little less basic. Coral's regularly survive such fluctuations.'

Professor Lindzen said Australia's political class had gone completely bonkers in their response to climate change alarmism and hadn't taken the time to actually read and understand the science.

'I can't imagine what suicidal instincts reside in Australia's political class.'

'In asking me to comment on the Australian response, you are asking the wrong person. You need to speak to someone specializing in abnormal psychology.'


LOL
_Water Dog
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Re: New IPCC report is out

Post by _Water Dog »

https://motls.blogspot.com/2018/10/no-o ... ering.html

A decade ago, I would probably read the press release in its entirety – plus several pages of the full report that I would pick as important or representative. The climate hysteria was already perfectly understood to be pseudoscientific hogwash promoted by left-wing activists. But there was still something new in it, something that provoked us, something we were afraid of.

I am no longer reading this garbage – and neither does an overwhelming majority of the people. There's absolutely no true, useful, or original content in this stuff. Almost identical predictions have been proven incorrect hundreds of times. Self-described "climate scientists" and their public faces such as Al Gore have been predicting the end of the world for 2000, 2009, 2010, 2015, and every other year. Jehovah's Witnesses can no longer compete in the number of these failed predictions of the end of the world. Nothing that would even remotely resemble their doomsday predictions has ever materialized.

These days, similar claims are on par with the spam about penis enlargement. Who was interested in such things has probably undergone the procedure, whatever it is. Others just treat it as the pollution in their mailboxes, newspapers, and on TV screens.

I believe that the number 15 identifying the report only refers to 1.5 °C, a revived temperature change that is promoted – not for the first time. Well, maybe I missed 14 similar previous reports. (I only know the numbering of the IPCC reports that recently ended with 5 or so.) OK, these people repeat their screaming that the Earth is frying and collapsing, tropical forests and everything else will evaporate by 2030 if not by the next Christmas, we need to stop our civilization more abruptly than previously claimed and reduce our planned temperature increase from 2 °C to 1.5 °C. And the temperature change must be measured not relatively to the pre-industrial era but relatively to a new randomly chosen period, 1850-1900.

Well, I don't even have energy to repeat more of this stuff. We've been bombarded by effectively equivalent garbage hundreds of times, the specifics of the newest report are completely irrelevant and uncorrelated with any events, insights, or new scientific evidence. All this fearmongering is just a random mutation of nonsense that everyone has seen many times, with some completely irrelevant and random new noise. One example of such noise is that these folks try to revive and praise biofuels again – many years after even Al Gore has admitted that the promotion of biofuels has been a giant and harmful blunder. In the absence of any genuine evidence, should we pay any attention to some random people's effort to resuscitate this completely misguided direction in the fuel industry? Also, these new authors label nuclear energy "dangerous". Anti-nuclear, pro-biofuel: the only thing you can say is that the IPCC was retaken by some of the even more unhinged green activists than during the previous reports.

The Earth's climate is not threatened at all. The forest area was increasing in recent decades – by as much as 35% in Europe, mostly due to the reforestation of Eastern Europe. There is absolutely nothing special about 1850-1900 or about 1.5 °C or about 2 °C. Nothing special will happen when some temperature change reaches 1.5 °C or 2 °C. We won't even be able to pinpoint that moment, not even with a decadal accuracy, not even with the most precise apparatuses, and not even with additional decades of hindsight. Even a warming by 10 °C would be safe but we're pretty sure that we can't get more than 1-2 °C in a century, the same change that has occurred in the recent 100 years and led to no clearly enough negative developments.

The tropical forests are also doing fine. The climate is more stable in these climatic zones. On top of that, the forests themselves create a local, even more stable climate for the flora and fauna that lives under the trees. There is simply zero justification for any kind of climate-related worries. The people spreading this ideology still believe in the efficiency of Goebbels' "The lie that is repeated 100 times becomes the truth".

But I no longer think that this stuff is efficient. This fearmongering is just spam and almost all people treat it like spam. The number of people who are inclined to be attracted by it is negligible and it is not growing. Only the people who consider themselves to be obedient soldiers of any far left-wing movement pay lip service to that junk but they don't really believe it, either. Just look at the attractiveness of this stuff through an example on the web. Take the U.S. government's most famous technological institution – yes, it's NASA, the men who sent 12 other men on the Moon – and its department for climate hysteria. Yes, I am talking NASA's GISS.

Who is the boss of it right now? Yes, it's Gavin Schmidt, the successor of James Hansen. Did he promote the "special report"? Yes, he did. He promoted it on the professional climate fearmongers' most important website, the Real Climate, funded by the wealthiest manipulator with the information in the world, George Soros, in 2004. How influential is RealClimate.org? Use Alexa to see that Real Climate is less influential than this blog.

But surely the special IPCC report about the looming end of the world changes this arithmetics, doesn't it?

OK, here is Gavin Schmidt's Real Climate blog post about this new special report about the Armageddon that is around the corner. It is short and you can see that he was frustrated when he was writing it – it was just another waste of time when he repeated all these superstitions that no one believes, not even himself. What is the reaction of the public to this NASA's #1 fearmonger with an amplifier provided by George Soros?

After two days, the article has 10 comments. None of them commenters seems really interested in this stuff anymore, either. The IPCC wants to dramatically change the behavior of 7+ billion people but they can't find more than 10 people in the world who would actually be attracted by such an idea. Not even a quote by a recent Berlin marathon winner at the end of Schmidt's text allowed him to attract readers. But the previous sentence of mine will actually double the number of his readers! ;-)

Message to all climate fearmongers: Give it up. This unscientific movement has already peaked in 2009, it has been dying a slow and painful death for about a decade, and you will be much happier if you accelerate it and make the climate hysteria die quickly and abruptly. If you help to accelerate this dying, if you will help all the sane people to expose how utterly idiotic and corrupt this movement has been, you will feel much happier. And you will also save lots of money because it may cost you, George Soros, a million dollars to brainwash another person – and most of these converts are just inconsequential simpletons. Climate fearmongers, you've become some of the most dishonest as well as useless people in the Earth's history.


Raises a number of valid points. Nobody is taking this seriously, why is that? Why do not even the doomsayers seem to be taking it seriously? Is he wrong, have these predictions not been repeatedly wrong, grossly wrong, even hundreds of times? Where is the empirical evidence of doom? All the stuff we've heard about polar bears and ice levels, not true. All the stuff about ecosystems dying, not true. No evidence of reefs dying, no evidence of forests dying - the opposite in fact. I was just reading another article about increase of forests in the south.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/thousands- ... 1539095250

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_Water Dog
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Re: New IPCC report is out

Post by _Water Dog »

Where is the historical correlation between CO2 and temperature?

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_Morley
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Re: New IPCC report is out

Post by _Morley »

Water Dog wrote:Or you could simply click on the Sept 9 article that appears right on google when you search for the quoted text. Which we both know you've already done.


Excellent! Thank you!

Here's the apparent link to the blog post you're so shy about posting:

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/09/09/empirical-evidence-shows-temperature-increases-before-co2-increase-in-all-records/

I didn't think you could be referencing that post, however, because right under the part you quoted, was this:

Apparently, in case anyone interpreted this to say there is no need to act now or even precipitously, the authors add,

Most of the warming, however, will emerge relatively quickly, implying that CO2 emission cuts will not only benefit subsequent generations but also the generation implementing those cuts.
(My bold.)
Last edited by Guest on Sat Oct 13, 2018 3:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
_Water Dog
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Re: New IPCC report is out

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