How good is Nat Silver forecast?

[_subgenius]

Watching a Ted Cruz meeting. They were all grey haired folks.

...and?

[_aussieguy55]

There is a program here called Planet America. One of the presenters was showing data that the highest participation was among those over 65..

[_Chap]

Watching a Ted Cruz meeting. They were all grey haired folks.

...and?

They are much more liable than young voters to drop off the perch over the next few years. The Republicans have a demographic problem on their hands.

[_subgenius]

...and?

They are much more liable than young voters to drop off the perch over the next few years. The Republicans have a demographic problem on their hands.

are you suggesting that we are running out of old people? we are actually increasing since a lot of today's old people died on a beach in France when they were young people.

mid-terms are the canasta of voting.

[_EAllusion]

are you suggesting that we are running out of old people? we are actually increasing since a lot of today's old people died on a beach in France when they were young people.

mid-terms are the canasta of voting.

The new-old people replacing the old-old people aren't shifting their views accordingly. Republicans will either have to adjust by appealing more the the politics of the non-dead voters, ratchet up electioneering tactics even more to prevent opponents from translating voter intent into victories, or become a demographic minority party.

All of those seem possible, so who knows what they'll do.

[_subgenius]

are you suggesting that we are running out of old people? we are actually increasing since a lot of today's old people died on a beach in France when they were young people.

mid-terms are the canasta of voting.

The new-old people replacing the old-old people aren't shifting their views accordingly. Republicans will either have to adjust by appealing more the the politics of the non-dead voters, ratchet up electioneering tactics even more to prevent opponents from translating voter intent into victories, or become a demographic minority party.

All of those seem possible, so who knows what they'll do.

:insert facepalm here:

CFR

[_NorthboundZax]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/?ex_cid=irpromo

How much effect does the GOP gerrymander have?

The graph associated with the house model shows pretty well what effect gerrymandering has. Democrats need to win the popular vote by roughly 5 percentage points to have a majority in the house. 538 suggests ~8 percentage points will happen, so the majority will likely flip, but not by the amount a non-gerrymandered 8 percentage point win would result in.

[_aussieguy55]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/won ... 25e7ac5103

Cheaters do prosper.

[_moksha]

I doubt this will happen. If it did, I suspect bands of raging Republicans would be rioting in the streets, spurred on by encouragement through Trump and Fox News.

I'm not sure I follow. You're saying the election is rigged and Republicans won't allow Democrats to win even if they should actually win based on voter opinion? And that, moreover, if Republicans lose the House, that they'll take to the streets and riot?

Not saying anything about the elections being rigged. What I said was that I doubt the Democrats will gain control of the House.

You were right about my contention that Republicans would take it to the streets, with aluminum foil headgear and tiki torches. The extremists who drive the GOP are dangerous enough now even without an electoral upset.

[_aussieguy55]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/od ... -democrat/

Does this mean that the Governor could be elected but not have a Democrat majority in the state house because of gerrymandering?