Megamillions should sue CNN

[_Res Ipsa]

DT, you don’t sound like you understand probability. The odds of you winning the lottery are orders of magnitude lower than someone winning the lottery. What CNN compared was the odds of you winning the lottery in a single drawing with you dying in an asteroid strike. If you googled, you found the estimate and how it was calculated. You’re just in denial about it based on your own personal incredulity. Did you find it?

[_moksha]

1 in 976,000 to be hit by lightning

1 in 74,000,000 to be hit by an asteroid (the last incidence was Mrs. Edwin J. Triceratops of Sarasota, Florida)

1 in 8,000,000 to be murdered in the Grand Canyon
1 in 11,500,000 to be attacked by a shark
1 in 67,000 of being bitten by a rabid Trump

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ot6W-iwonOE

[Guest]

DT, you don’t sound like you understand probability.

I do.

What CNN compared was the odds of you winning the lottery in a single drawing with you dying in an asteroid strike. If you googled, you found the estimate and how it was calculated. You’re just in denial about it based on your own personal incredulity. Did you find it?

You are right if it is big asteroid strike. For example, the chances of 2013 TV135 hitting the Earth in 2032 are one in 63,000 and millions of people will die if it happens.

[Guest]

Did you find it?

According to astronomer Michael Reynolds, "He put the lifetime odds of dying from a local meteorite, asteroid, or comet impact at 1 in 1,600,000." https://news.nationalgeographic.com/201 ... lity-odds/

So if Michael Reynolds is right, then your odds of winning the jackpot today are much better.

[_DoubtingThomas]

1 in 74,000,000 to be hit by an asteroid (the last incidence was Mrs. Edwin J. Triceratops of Sarasota, Florida)

In a lifetime?

[_Res Ipsa]

Did you find it?

According to astronomer Michael Reynolds, "He put the lifetime odds of dying from a local meteorite, asteroid, or comet impact at 1 in 1,600,000." https://news.nationalgeographic.com/201 ... lity-odds/

So if Michael Reynolds is right, then your odds of winning the jackpot today are much better.

Did you listen to the CNN story? Odds of winning the jackpot are 1 in 300 million. You quoted.lifetime odds of one in 1.6 million. So you are around 200 times more likely to die from an asteroid than you are to win the mega millions drawing.

And, you cherry picked, posting only the number for “local” impacts. You left out the odds of dying in a large impact, estimated at 1 in 75,000. The article gave a combined estimate of one in 700,000. So, you are 400 times more likely to die from falling bodies from space than you are to win the jackpot.

I think you owe CNN an apology,,,

[_DoubtingThomas]

You left out the odds of dying in a large impact, estimated at 1 in 75,000.

Didn't need it. I said "You are right if it is big asteroid strike". In other words I retracted.

Did you listen to the CNN story? Odds of winning the jackpot are 1 in 300 million. You quoted.lifetime odds of one in 1.6 million. So you are around 200 times more likely to die from an asteroid than you are to win the mega millions drawing.

Yes, but it is still true that your odds of winning the jackpot today or tomorrow are much better than getting killed by a small asteroid strike on the same day.

[_DoubtingThomas]

So on a given day the odds of getting killed by a small asteroid strike are very low.

[_Res Ipsa]

Now you’re changing what CNN actually said. CNN didn’t say “small asteroid strike.” CNN didn’t say “die from asteroid strike on a specific day.” What CNN said was absolutely correct.

Case dismissed.

[_MeDotOrg]

Nobody knows what are the odds of getting killed by an asteroid.

No, but if you are hit by an asteroid I would imagine the chances of being killed by it are quite high.