November Election Thread

[_EAllusion]

It used to be the case that Democrats won the extremely well-educated, people with graduate degrees, and those with a high education and worse. Republicans made up for it by running up numbers among those with some college or an undergraduate degree. Around the Bush vs. Gore election, this shifted where Democrats started losing some of the low education vote, but made up for it by making better gains among college educated voters.

This trend has continued and continued. Republicans are hemorrhaging educated votes, but are making up for it by doing really well among non-college educated whites. I think this is a terrible trend because it is not healthy for the country to have one major party preferred by the educated class and the other the not.

[_Kevin Graham]

The best thing about tonight is that we're going to get Trump's tax returns.

^^^ see what I mean, took the words right out of my mouth. Kevin is positively giddy about all the things that will ENSURE his defeat long-term. It will be fun to watch.

Oh I'm sure you'd just love it if the Democrats in the House just pussy-footed and walked on egg shells while your maniac is still running things with reckless abandon. But the fact is they were elected by the people to do something, and a large reason the Democrats took over the House is because of Trump. He has had absolutely no oversight in his first two years and that is now going to change.

Record numbers of voters didn't turn out because they want the Democrats to pass a bunch of crap they know will never get passed. They want Trump held accountable for the first time, and that is exactly what's going to happen.

And a huge reason why they will be able to do this is because the Republicans in 2015 gave the House unlimited power to subpoena. They did this do they could subpoena the Obama administration. Now it is going to come back and bite them in the ass when House Democrats get Trump's tax returns. They don't need anything more than a simple majority vote to do this.

“Most, if not all, current congressional committees have utterly failed in their oversight responsibilities of the current administration. Democratic ranking members have requested information from the executive branch and most of those requests for information are being ignored. A Democratic majority will be able to put teeth behind those information requests [and] have more administration officials testify before the relevant committees to help fulfill the checks and balances that are largely absent from the current Republican Congress.” - Aaron Scherb, director of legislative affairs at Common Cause.

[_subgenius]

because felons are noted for their civic duty and participation in legitimate enterprise....

We can tell how much you care about civic duty and participation in legitimate enterprise by your rabid support of Donald Trump. This is definitely a sincere concern of yours.

yawn, check with me after the big red wave of judicial appointments that is about was your little blue beach.

[_EAllusion]

yawn, check with me after the big red wave of judicial appointments that is about was your little blue beach.

Conservatives have controlled the Supreme Court for about 50 years and have held the judicial branch for most of that time. Expecting more of a conservative, or shall we say more of a modern conservative, takeover of the courts to allow folks like Donald Trump to behave like Donald Trump definitely shows concern for civic duty and legitimate enterprise. You know, like in Turkey or Poland, where right-wing authoritarian parties have improved free and fair government so much by "modifying" the courts.

Ethics in government decision making clearly is one of your top priorities.

[_Xenophon]

What stops that is a close or Democratic Senate, but the math is simply abysmal for that happening in the near future. Even excepting California, Democrats dominated the Senate preference vote this cycle and lost probably around 5 seats. That's because rural, low education voters have an increasingly strong preference for the Republican party and they are disproportionately concentrated in low population states. The default, neutral election Senate math is something like 60/40 Republican. .

To highlight just how bad the math is: 57% of Senate votes went to Democrats this midterm, as of right now, while still losing at least 2 seats.

[_Chap]

To highlight just how bad the math is: 57% of Senate votes went to Democrats this midterm, as of right now, while still losing at least 2 seats.

Party allegiances aside, will someone remind me why a set-up that produces such a result is an excellent idea?

(I vaguely recall it was something to do with stopping North Dakota being dominated by the wicked people in California, or whatever... )

[_DarkHelmet]

What stops that is a close or Democratic Senate, but the math is simply abysmal for that happening in the near future. Even excepting California, Democrats dominated the Senate preference vote this cycle and lost probably around 5 seats. That's because rural, low education voters have an increasingly strong preference for the Republican party and they are disproportionately concentrated in low population states. The default, neutral election Senate math is something like 60/40 Republican. .

To highlight just how bad the math is: 57% of Senate votes went to Democrats this midterm, as of right now, while still losing at least 2 seats.

The democrats lost the working class white voter. They used to do well with this demographic, at least well enough. What can they do to win back enough white working class votes to flip a few red districts? It seems to me the sticking point with a lot of these voters is gay marriage, immigration, and jobs. The gay marriage issue will die off when the older generation dies off, so I wouldn't worry too much about that. The immigration issue is tied to the jobs issue. These voters are worried about being left behind by educated whites in an increasingly technical job market, while the non-technical jobs are taken by cheap immigrant labor. Whether that's true or not, that's a fear that is stoked by the Trump party. The democrat message needs to be that coal jobs are not coming back. We are not a third world country. Our jobs growth has always been tied to innovation. They should continue to push for continuing education programs for displaced workers. Also, health care is a winning issue, and they need to keep pushing that. Don't let the Republicans get away with lying about how they've always supported the ACA. Remind these voters that the ACA exists because of Democrats despite stiff opposition from Republicans.

[_EAllusion]

Data is pretty clear that “jobs”, sometimes characterized as “economic anxiety,” very poorly explains recent shifts in white non-college voters voting Republican. What explains it well is white identity politics. You don’t fix that with politics, but you do try to deemphasize it as a political issue or just build a counter coalition until old people die off.

The big thumb on the scales is right wing media: Fox, Sinclair, talk-radio, the constellation of right wing websites. Not sure what is to be done about that, but it’s dragging America into the abyss. Messaging there targets that demographic heavily.

[_Xenophon]

The democrats lost the working class white voter. They used to do well with this demographic, at least well enough. What can they do to win back enough white working class votes to flip a few red districts? It seems to me the sticking point with a lot of these voters is gay marriage, immigration, and jobs. The gay marriage issue will die off when the older generation dies off, so I wouldn't worry too much about that. The immigration issue is tied to the jobs issue. These voters are worried about being left behind by educated whites in an increasingly technical job market, while the non-technical jobs are taken by cheap immigrant labor. Whether that's true or not, that's a fear that is stoked by the Trump party. The democrat message needs to be that coal jobs are not coming back. We are not a third world country. Our jobs growth has always been tied to innovation. They should continue to push for continuing education programs for displaced workers. Also, health care is a winning issue, and they need to keep pushing that. Don't let the Republicans get away with lying about how they've always supported the ACA. Remind these voters that the ACA exists because of Democrats despite stiff opposition from Republicans.

Demographic breakouts are still in early days but I think you may be underselling how well Democrats did with white voters this time around, you're correct that the swing wasn't into a majority (at least among men) but there was a significant shift this cycle to the left (at least based on House exit polling). I agree with you on what they should be messaging, and I think mostly they did this go around and that seems to have resonated with voters mostly. We saw even middle class voters turning blue this go around. We will see if Democrats can continue that trend or not.

I'm not sure any party can be everything to all people and I'm uncertain you could ever win back the kind of voter that is certain immigrants are stealing their jobs. Democrats best hope is to continue to push the education initiatives they have and focus on job growth for everyone.

[_EAllusion]

Trump is basically openly promising Democrats policy concessions if they agree to not investigate him. He then threatens them with counter investigations if they do not oblige, apparently not aware that if there were legitimate problems with Democrats, you don’t agree to overlook oversight in a corrupt bargain to return the favor.

You have to be cynical or compromised as hell to be ok with that display just right out in the open. Fortunately for Republicans, people who consume their media won’t learn about it.